Good start but unfortunately that comms blackout goes both ways the Combine forces can't talk to each other so they can't get help. The other side of that is that the units not hit don't know they are getting invaded and will still go off to attack the FedSuns when the predetermined date is reached. The FedSuns don't know where every unit is that will invade so some will get through the damage will be lighter than if every unit attacked but it will still be damaging.
The problem is that while in the old days that might have been a really big concern, Victor now has SO many units that he can both deploy a NUMBER of concentrated spearheads at the same time as he still retains very strong interior garrisons AND reaction forces. And forces of a generally decent skill level (and forces STILL running top of the line equipment rather than duct tapped held together Banshees or something).
The Combine will surely press the attack both for strategic reasons and cultural reasons its critical they do ... but rather than slicing past the front and going to town on Victors interior, to their horror they'll find they are probably going to drop onto worlds STILL well defended - and with additional forces inbound in a short time to stomp them!
And THEN they get the Fax's finally coming through saying that Victor sent two MORE spearheads through into Benjamin and Galedon ...
Slowly, inch by inch, Hohiro and Theodore might slowly start to get it through their incredibly thick heads that they have finally pushed Victor past a point of no return. That Victor has finally taken off the kid gloves and decided to
break them after years of TRYING to live with them, he's finally snapped any last restraint by building up to invade the Federated suns 'just because we can!'
The worst part of all of this for the Combine is that this preemptive attack is the huge loss of face for House Kurita. Oh I'm sure they'll loudly proclaim this is an unprovoked attack and bla bla bla (and pretty much every person across the rest of the Inner Sphere, even those factions in the FWL that don't like Victor will probably roll their eyes at
that one) but being smashed back and placed firmly on the back foot as the AFFS steadily advance INTO the Combine like this? Taking Dieron, the equivalent of Robinson or New Sytris? I mean, we already saw on the tactical level that some of the Generals and Captains refused to do the logical thing of retreating and regrouping for a counter attack, but they stood and fought against impossible odds and lost Warships/Commands/Planets that the Combine REALLY couldn't afford to loose! And yet, the loss of face suffered means that they will probably double down into a vicious circle. People like Tai-sa Kasigi who made the smart decision to pull back and regroup are probably going to get shot for daring to not fight to the death against impossible odds!
Theodore might see the risks here, but find he simply isn't in a position to DO anything about it. Especially with the HPG network like it is and the Black Dragons probably going to flip right back around to killing him and his son and taking power as clearly House Kurita has proven for the last time that it must be destroyed and the GLORIOUS Von Rohrs returned to power!!!1111oneone
This is REALLY not going to end well.