ilClan speculations and ideas 20 years in ?

[JAMES_PRYDE]

I am currently playing a game where space exploration is key, factions, creating outposts , and like everything, I have modeled it on Battletech/The Clans/Clan Fusions, in this case loosely, but playing it through that Lense, got me thinking more about the ilClan Era, and what would it look like say 20 years in ?

For this thought experiment and general throwing ideas around and based on the "melting" / integrations around the Sphere and in the 3rd Star League, conditions are:

In the same vein as how Dark Age was "time jumped" in this case just a wee bit, 20 years

Alaric has been knocked off within the first 5 years, and there is more melting, the second generation under the Era is "of age", new conflicts have redrawn the IS map

I'll start, the League map of the IS sits with a small but firm 1 jump ring around Terra, the Wolf Empire cut in half, and more inroads, but a strong 2 planet supply line, the Horses making a little dent in Bear territory towards Terra, while they were busy with the Combine, which is now cut in half, capital has fallen, and there is a chaos march around the area from it, towards the Bears Border, but the Bears hold their rough line to it, the anti-coreward part of the Combine is still the "new" dragon's territory, the Ravens link up to the Bears through this new chaos march. The Dragon still holds their territory in the FS and consolidates

Jade Falcon a small snaking line to Jiyi's Falcons, Scorpions have gotten rid of the Periphery Pirates, and now occupy a small area. Sea Fox is busy making money and HPG's

Integration wise, caste system is more relaxed, warriors of Clan origin are allowed to have two bloodnames or reconnect with their Inner Sphere ancestors, after some major event ? (Capellans taking Terra for a little bit and being the new WoB without nukes)

The entire Sphere is the sandbox

[Alan Grant]

The general long run of Battletech history basically shows this. Introduce new machines (new models of 'mechs etc), and introduce new battlefields.

-The traditional map of the Inner Sphere (the Great Houses) doesn't change very much, borders shift over time, sometimes dramatically, but the core stays the same. Even when a dramatic change (such as the state of the Fed Suns right now) does happen, it's a trend that tends to reverse at some point, returning to the old equilibrium eventually. The exact same thing happened to the Fed Suns in the 1st Succession War.

-New flash zones/hot spots are created by introducing new/different factions or moving around factions to occupy what were quiet areas of the map. A good example would be how the Wolf Empire was moved from the old Wolf OZ to occupy a region of space straddling the border that had been very quiet throughout all of the 3050s-Jihad era. Except for a few sideshow engagements in the FedCom Civil War and the rescue of Kristen's Krushers from Arcadia by the FWLM, almost nothing happened along that border. Another good example is the introduction of the Clans themselves. That swath that became the Clan OZ and the frontline of the IS versus the Clans, and the focal points of events like Operation Bulldog, those were quiet regions of space for a very long time before 3049.

So look at the map now. Imagine where the major conflict zones will be for a while (based on recent events in-universe). But also try to visualize where things are so quiet it's almost utterly dull.

Those utterly dull spots where little/nothing seems to happen, will end up near the top of the list for future hot spots and conflict zones. No guarantee they'll make the cut when actual decisions are made. But they will be high on the list for the site for a future major event.

To be sure, there will still be practically evergreen contentious zones that will remain so. Terra is a constant focus (even when it's not being attacked). The traditional enemies (i.e. Fed Suns vs Combine) always have their thing going, whether its a hot war or more of a raiding/cold war situation.

But the pattern is well established at this point. When you see the pattern, when begin to identify those possible future hot zones/conflict zones, you also start to consider how/why they would become that. What faction(s) sit there, whether or not that province/principality might try to break away from a larger faction. What national border is relatively close to that spot on the map, and so on.

[Metallgewitter]

20 years from what? The happenings from Empire Alone and Dominion divided? I would say the original Wolf Empire is gone, divided between the Lyrans and the Free worlds League and perhaps tiny bits were taken by the Capellans. The Suns have taken action against the Ravens who have been poaching territory from the Suns for far too long with the Ravens loosing precious Warships andf troops against the battle hardened AFFS. Meanwhile tzhe Dominion has become ripped with a new civil war as the war against the Combine did not become the quick victory that would unite the shaken realm as Yori is hellbent on showing she can overcome any "Yellow bird" that threatens her realm. Meanwhile the Wolves have somehow managed to establish a small new "Hegemony" but have to rely on their Is citizens more and more as precious Clan warriors die with each battle and new Trueborn are slow to filter through the touman

Add to that a hidden war is being waged between the Foxes and several IS intelligence agencies for the secrets of bringing HPG's back to life (we already know that the MIIO and SAFE are eyeing the Foxes closely) and perhaps some HJouses have already ghotten the knowledge for it just lack the means to repair the HPG's

And perhaps on another note the Canopians have occupied at least parts of the Marian Hegemony while they also severed ties with their main ally the Confederation, maybe even helping Andurien to poach worlds from the Confederation while they throw everything and the kitchen sink at the Wolves

[JAMES_PRYDE]

In the OP, when I said 20 years in, I also meant make some "semi-plausible" stuff up, as a thought experiment, rather than just going on what we have so far

Alan's formula makes alot of sense

[Natasha Kerensky]

For counterpoint, I’d say that the ilClan and Clans have the potential to be really expansionary, take over a lot of Inner Sphere real estate, and reduce the Houses to rumps states and exiles.  But like so much in BT, it depends on what the authors decide to do with key resources, opportunities, and personalities.  For example:

Terra’s Industry:  Just going by Sarna, Terra and Mars have hosted between 56 and 80 battlemech production lines.  (See list at bottom.)  We don’t know how many of these facilities are still intact/active versus safely mothballed versus functionally/actually destroyed by time or recent Blakist/Republic/Clan conflicts.  But if these factories just turned out 45-50 mechs a month, that’s a mech cluster a month or 3-4 mech galaxies a year.  In five years, that’s 15-20 galaxies.  Triple that to 45-60 galaxies if these factories can just manage Boeing 747 levels of production.  (Boeing built 3 of those aircraft per month over 50 years of 747 production.)  Multiply it by 75 to 1125-1500 galaxies if these factories can manage M-1 Abrams levels of production.  (About 75 of those tanks were produced per month from 1979-1993.)

The point is not to argue for a particular number, but to show the potential is there within the Terran system alone to equip a large ilClan force in a small number of years if the authors so choose.  (There’s also fighter, battle armor, combat vehicle, dropship/jumpship, and even potential warship production facilities within the Terran system.)  The question shouldn’t be how much can be salvaged from the Republic/Falcon/Wolf battle for Terra (although that won’t be insignificant), but how much can be produced from the military factories that the Wolves/ilClan have inherited on Terra and Mars.

In Empire Alone, the Wolf garrison left behind on Solaris VII begins receiving military equipment from the ilClan on Terra (via the Foxes).  This could be anything from helmets to mechs.  But whatever it is, it may be a harbinger of the ilClan’s future industrial might as Terra’s manufacturing and resources are wedded to Clan drive and organization.

Terra’s Population:  Equipping an army is one thing.  Manning it is another.  But the Terran system provides a huge recruitment pool.  There’s almost 14 billion people living on Terra and Mars, a population that exceeds the entire population of the Clan Homeworlds by like a factor of 10x.  If the ilClan fields, say, 100 new mech galaxies over the next five years, they’ll need to recruit and train about 5000 new mechwarriors.  That’s only 0.0000004% of the Terran system’s population.  Even if we multiply this a hundredfold for the other arms of the ilClan military (infantry, naval, etc.) or a thousandfold for support functions (techs, logistics, medical, administrative, etc.), it’s still an infinitesimal burden on, and eminently recruitable portion of, Terra’s population.

Of course, maybe Terra and Mars rise up en masse and bring an early end to the ilClan experiment.  But historically, most civilian populations in BT are background sheeple and that’s been especially true of Terra during the turnover between successive ComStar, Blakist, and Republic administrations.  And when the Spheroid Clans have encountered resistance, it’s been role-playing color (Dark Caste, Motstand, whatever forced the development of the Sokar) or a diversion (Society), not an arc-driving event.

Again, the point is not to pick a number but to show that the potential is there for the ilClan to field a large military in a relatively small number of years if the authors so choose.  The question shouldn’t be the size of the Free Guilds that now work for the ilClan, but the size the Terran population that will now fight and work for the ilClan.

Inter-Clan Cooperation:  We’ve been given hints of certain Clans (or portions of Clans) beginning to work towards a greater purpose under the ilClan.  The Raven loaders wearing daggerstars or the Foxes building mechs for the Wolves.  It remains to be seen how far and deep this cooperation goes, but the potential is there for the Clans to set aside their historical inter-Clan squabbling and trialing and really coordinate and focus their efforts against the Houses.

Will the Raven warships headed to Terra complete a mere diplomatic mission before returning or will they blunt a Cappie assault on Terra?  Will the Foxes continue supplying the ilClan from afar or will they put down roots in the Terran system with Arcships, Enclaves, and Clantech upgrades to Terra’s military factories?  Will the Cats and Foxes in the Protectorate work together with the ilClan to establish a home for a new Clan Nova Cat?  Will the Ravens help the Bears with their offensive by hitting the Combine from the other direction?  Will the ilClan reunite with or otherwise ensure the survival of the Wolf Empire?  Are the Horses really going to go after the ilClan or will they be brought into the fold?

Authors could take each of these turning events in any number of directions, but the potential is there for the Clans to work with some unity of purpose in common cause against the Houses and weaken them as the ilClan expands outward from Terra.

Whither the SLDF and Wolf Touman:  The original SLDF was essentially a peacekeeping force that rarely saw action and then only when attacked first.  An ilClan SLDF, and one led by Anastasia, seems unlikely to play the same role.  Presumably, they’ll be pressing outward for some time to come, establishing a core holding for the ilClan around Terra.  Or they’ll probably be causing trouble for the Houses elsewhere.  If the Cappies manage a strike at Terra, some degree of retribution and sidelining of that threat would be a natural first job for the ilClan SLDF.  Or establishing a home for a reborn Smoke Jaguar Clan?  Or maybe all of the above in the same systems.

Same goes for the Wolf Touman, assuming it is separate and distinct from the SLDF.  If the Goons don’t put him down first, is Alaric really done conquering?  Or will he make good on his matrilineal claims to the Tharkad throne?  To the New Avalon throne?

It took Ian Cameron 20 years of diplomacy, backroom dealings, and threats to establish the first Star League.  Similarly, Alaric, Anastasia, the ilClan, the SLDF, and the Wolf Touman may have just been getting started with Terra.  We could be looking at decades of Clan offenses until the ilClan Era reaches some measure of stasis.

Technological Wildcards:  The Clans have certain technological advantages that they’ve never really pressed hard on.  To name a couple, there’s Iron Wombs and the Interface Cockpit.

Iron Wombs allow a Clan to artificially increase the size of its population at rates constrained resources (food, clothing, shelter, education), rather than the physiology of human reproduction.  And now the ilClan has the resources of Terra.  It still takes a generation to field a new trueborn generation, but with enough resources, the size of that new generation can be arbitrarily large compared to what the Clans were used to in the Homeworlds.  And with an obvious eye on Terra, a savvy Wolf Khan could have kickstarted that sometime after the Wolf Empire was established, if the authors so wished.

The spread of Interface Cockpits has been constrained by the deleterious effects of Enhanced Imaging tattoos on the long-term mental state of mechwarriors.  But after decades of use and given the extremely advanced state of Clan combat medicine, it seems natural that a workaround could emerge that allows most/all Clan warriors to safely use EI and ICs.  That would allow ICs to proliferate far beyond the Skinwalker and Parash, giving the ilClan and Clans the same kind of widespread technological advantage they enjoyed at the outset of Operation Revival, even against House units employing Clantech weapons.

To sum up and be clear, I’m not predicting with certainty that any of this will happen.  But throw the toggles on just a few of these, and it’s easy to see a path towards ilClan/Clan domination if that’s the direction the authors want to take the Inner Sphere.

Looking at the precedent set so far in Lyran and former Falcon space, I’m guessing the ilClan Era will result in a lot of balkanization that generally comes at the expense of the Houses and that tends to benefit the ilClan/Clans.  But for the sake of storytelling and gameplay, the kind of near-absolute and boring domination that the original SLDF/TH/Star League enjoyed will probably not come to pass under the ilClan.

FWIW... YMMV.

=========================

Terra Mech Production Lines

Amaris Arms
     Matar

Blankenburg
     Grim Reaper -29, -30, -31
     Crockett 5003-2, 5003-3, 5004-1

Devil’s Peak
     Revenant

Ford
     Thorn -F, -N, -N1

Krupp
     Dragoon -01, -02, -03, -04

Leopard
     Red Shift

Martinson
     Initiate
     Kyudo
     Lightray
     Spartan
     Deva
     Preta
     Gregori

Ostman
     Ostwar
     Ostroc

Quarry
     Emperor -1A

RAF Providence
     Celerity
     Revenant
     Lich

Sekkaris
     Deva
     Malak
     Preta
     Grigori
     Seraph
     Archangel

StarCorps
     Warhammer -9S, -10CT
     Longbow -12C
     Emperor -6A
     Highlander -736
     Doloire

Skobel
     Jackrabbit
     Mercury -99, -102
     Nexus 1-A, 2-A, 2-B
     Osprey -26, -36
     Excalibur -B2, -D1
     Gallant
     Lament -2D, -2R, -3C, -3R, -4RC
     Grand Crusader -03, -04
     Legacy
     Mackie
     Vanquisher -2A, -2B
     Omega -4X, -5R

Mars Mech Production Lines

Cosara
     King Crab

General Mechanics
     Wasp -1, -1A, -3L
     Kintaro

Krupp
     Lancelot

Sekkaris
     Deva
     Malak
     Preta
     Grigori
     Seraph
     Archangel

[Metallgewitter]

"Resources of Terra". somehow contradicts the reason the Hegemony centuries ago decided to build one big league: the raw materials of the IS core were running out. The Wolves may have the factories but do they have the raw materials? FM 3145 indicated that the Republic had emptied their storages to rebuild their army and they had just begun to delve into Deep Sea mining and asteroid mining. Though of course there is the Belt which allegedly has enough raw material to feed Terra for decades. While the Foxes probably send convoys full of raw material to the wolves that supply line is perilious especially if the Wolf Empire which seems to be a main hub of raw material production for Terra gets swallowed up by their neighbours.

Terra might be more of a poisonous apple then we all realize. And unlike other times Terra was conquered this time we have an entire IS at a war footing and at least 2 maybe even 3 Houses / Clans gunning for the current big shot.

[BrianDavion]

the writing is NOTORIOUSLY inconsistant where Terra's concerned that way

[Natasha Kerensky]

"Resources of Terra". somehow contradicts the reason the Hegemony centuries ago decided to build one big league: the raw materials of the IS core were running out. The Wolves may have the factories but do they have the raw materials? FM 3145 indicated that the Republic had emptied their storages to rebuild their army and they had just begun to delve into Deep Sea mining and asteroid mining.

Authors can use FASAnomics to make up whatever imaginary economics are needed to drive the plotline.  But excuses about a resource-poor Terra or core worlds are plain goofy. 

Just to pick on one metal, there’s ~10^21 tons of mineable iron in the Earth’s upper crust.  A McKenna warship weighs 2.5x10^6 tons.  So if McKennas were made solely of iron (they’re not but for the sake of simplicity), something like 400,000,000,000,000 McKennas could be constructed from the iron in Terra’s upper crust alone.  How many McKennas did the first Star League actually build?  280.  The mining necessary to support billion or so Star Leagues worth of McKennas would have to happen before Terra’s upper crust was exhausted of iron.

Put another way, we currently mine ~10^9 ton of iron ore a year today.  At that rate of consumption, a trillion years would have to pass before the iron in the Earth’s upper crust would be exhausted.  No doubt, the Star League populations of Terra would consume more iron than we do today.  Maybe ten times more.  Maybe even a hundred times more.  But not a trillion times more.  That’s nutty.

And that ignores the energy technologies that the Star League or 32nd-century Terra have access to.  Mining operations in BT have access to practically unlimited levels of fusion energy, and they can apply that energy with gazillion-watt lasers and particle beams.  This would allow them to mine to depths and refine with efficiencies that we can’t even contemplate today.

And then when you multiply that times the resources of the Moon and Mars and the Asteroid Belt and planetary systems in Terra’s neighborhood, arguments about exhausted raw resources just get really silly.  No doubt, there should be local and temporal shortages of raw resources in the BT universe caused by economic disruption.  But with steady access to BT fusion and lasers on any sorta Earth-like planet or system, there’s no even vaguely realistic resource obstacle to building whatever size of military or empire someone wants to build.

As to to why the Terran Hegemony would have undertaken joint administration of worlds outside the Hegemony, there’s any number of economic, diplomatic, and military reasons.  A resource doesn’t have to be exhausted within the Hegemony for it to be cheaper to mine outside the Hegemony.  A mountain range awash in surface diamonds is cheaper to access than one that requires actual mining to reach the diamonds.  Nations today undertake all sorts of projects that are economically questionable (we’ve never gotten a return anywhere close to our $100 billion investment in the International Space Station) but that are important in terms of maintaining allies and building peace with former enemies.  Same goes for any number and type of military installations.  It may make no sense to position a population or personnel in some faraway post except they provide an early warning system, an operational base along a critical border, etc.  There’s all sorts of reasons why the Hegemony would want to jointly administer worlds that have nothing to do with natural resources.

FWIW...

[BrianDavion]

I doubnt the deficancies would be in stuff like Iron if it existed but things like Rare earth metals. and even then it's not "we don't have any" so much as "so we've reached a point where it's actually cheaper to just build what we need on another planet then it is to go to the expense of extracting it here. which.... if you don't have another planet, you do what you must

[Generic Clanner 24601]

OK. Some wild speculation (but still sorta plausible).

The Wolf has a solid 5 to 10 years of successes beating back any who approach them and gaining territory. And then it hits the fan after that. The Wolf Empire falls while being ignored and turns its back on Alaric. Rumors start getting out that the Republic helped the Wolves win by throwing their toughest units at the Jade Falcons and giving the Wolves easier opponents. The sibko the Dragoons took from the Empire begin their Mechwarrior careers. And if it wasn't discovered beforehand, the Clans will begin realizing Alaric's genetics are not exactly pure by the Clan standards (I'm a little confused about whether he is just the Steiner-Davion spawn or if Vlad's DNA was thrown in there two, but either way, it's a scandal among the Clans). And then he'll be hit by a major loss.

The Clans who reject his ilClan (Jade Falcons [Jiyi-flavored], Hell's Horses, survivors of the Wolf Empire, and part of the Ghost Bear) will form an alternate Clan structure in practice until the rumors come out and then in formality when they do. Sea Foxes sell to both sides. The Snow Ravens play both sides, trying to gain whatever advantage is available to them if X doesn't happen. Small parts of the other Clans except the Smoke Jaguar recognize them instead of the ilClan, including remnants of the Wolf Empire.

The destruction of the Wolf Empire and Jiyi's existence is a big blow to Alaric. While he is successful at expanding the Star League territory, the sibkos and gene material are lost to the Wolves and his Jade Falcons. This results in him being more open about freeborns which does actually help incorporate the IS territory he takes but alienates Clanners.

The Ghost Bears have a civil Civil War. They work together when needed to, but still often fight about whether to accept or reject Alaric with their leaders juggling to keep the peace despite knowing they can't keep the balls in the air forever. The Ghost Bear slowly adopt the Fire Mandrill attitude where their families mean everything but anyone else, including other families in their Clan are an enemy.

The X I referred to earlier is what happens to the Ravens. The first option is what I said. They try to play all sides for their own. The second (X) is that joining the Star League is the last straw for the Outworlds Alliance and they get repulsed from their space to their shock and horror. (multiple factors from underestimating the Periphery to having too many forces away helping the Wolves). Their warships get sabotaged (maybe even the mothballed ones get stolen), and they lose enough that while they are still the strongest navy, they are not that much stronger. The join the Wolves in the Hegemony space and rebuild. Still might play both sides, but out of survival.

Jiyi dies, but forms his Falcons into a pretty strong Clan that can survive losing him, but they mostly secure their position, expand where they can and continue to build for the fight with the Blackwatch and False Star League.

The Horses expand and almost make it to Terra, but are beaten back by the Wolves. They overextend themselves and have to fight to save as much of their conquest as they can.

The IS try to liberate Terra but take bad losses. They do the sensible thing and attack their neighbors. Except the Combine. The Combine's focus is purely defensive during this period.

Probably some more stuff, but I need to get bed. Hope I kept it plausible enough to fit the OP.

[JAMES_PRYDE]

Good scenarios, particularly about the Empire turning on Alaric (making some kind of deal with FWL, Spirit Cats and Protectorate ?)

[Metallgewitter]

I doubnt the deficancies would be in stuff like Iron if it existed but things like Rare earth metals. and even then it's not "we don't have any" so much as "so we've reached a point where it's actually cheaper to just build what we need on another planet then it is to go to the expense of extracting it here. which.... if you don't have another planet, you do what you must

I think that was the explanation given why the old Alliance and Hegemony turned away from the Belt and looked for more easy access to ressources. And finding new planets which have easy accessible ressources is probably the same thinking Clan merchants had a weight in determining how to trial. Is it easier to build a new mine or trial for the existing mine just one jump away?

The Wolf Empire is probably one of those "realms" that either die out complelty or survive in a very small capacity. To remind you at the current point the League has declared a full out assault on the Empire and right before that the Dragoons Zeta Battalion sacked Gienah obliterating it's entire defenses either killing or absorbing most defenders (and to add insult to injury probably taking every salvagable Mech with them). While news travel slow in ther HPg-less era they still travel and this will be a kick to the Wolves morale and Clanner said it might be the stone that trickles the "turn away from the Ilkhan" avalanche. Heck maybe the League gains another Clan Protectorate however unlikely it sounds. More interesting will probably be the Lyran Hinterlands. We have the recovering Commonwealth and then we have several small fiefdoms giving a almost mirror situation to the Jihad Commonwealth. If the writers are "lazy" they might kill of Trilian in either a coup or a simple assasination and Roderick will take over and his first order of business will be a show of force most likely against the Vesper March.

[Nerroth]

A potential variable in all of this would be what - if anything - might emerge from the Clan Homeworlds as of 3171.

At the present time of typing, it's been made clear not to expect the post-Reaving Homeworld Clans to be revisited any time soon. But, given that the current Powers That Be are set to avoid a timeskip going forward, it wold be unfortunate if, after taking the "slowboat" to that in-universe year, there is still no word - one way or the other - on that region of space.

So, I'd hope that there'd be some sort of update from (what remains of) the Homeworlds during the medium to long term of the IlClan Era.

-----

As to what such an update might look like:

For one thing, I've suggested before that, even if all four Home Clans are still in existence, that they would not necessarily show up all at once - or, for that matter, in the same direction.

As far back as Operational Turning Points: REVIVAL Trials, the Star Adders made clear what they would envision for an invasion of the Inner Sphere: all Clans going at once, and all of their touman going as one. Historically, the other Clans weren't interested in such grandiose bids... but if the Adders are still intent on launching their own invasion, their would-be campaign might be one part invasion, and one part migration.

But would the three other Home Clans agree? Would all four wish to abandon the Homeworlds, saying goodbye to Strana Mechty for the last time the way other Clans had done before them? Or might one Clan opt to stay behind, leaving the other three to go their own ways?

Indeed, might those ways necessarily be in the same direction? As suggested in The Wars of Reaving Supplemental, the main focus at last reporting was on the worlds now controlled by the Scorpion Empire. But now, there is an ilClan Wolf on Terra - who not only have the McKenna's Pride parked in orbit, but also have entombed the Great Father's remains at Unity City. No doubt this would trigger a serious reaction among the Home Clans, once word of these "icons of war" reaches as far as the Homeworlds.

-----

All told, perhaps we might see a final parting of the ways, in terms of who stays, who goes one way, and who goes another.

As in, one of the four Home Clans stays behind, to become in effect the last "Homeworld Clan"; one detaches from the others to follow the original plan of invading the Scorpion Empire; while the other two stick together in a vast invasion/migration aimed at the Inner Sphere. Or perhaps all three would make a run for the Inner Sphere as a group, bypassing the Scorpions altogether.

But which ones?

The Star Adders would, in my view, be one of the two (or three) to go to the Inner Sphere, leaving the Homeworlds behind.

It would be ironic if the Coyotes became, in essence, the last "Wardens" of the Homeworlds, should the other three go elsewhere. Which would be doubly so if, once the other three were gone, they defected over to the side of the Wolves and declared for the ilClan on Terra...

Which would either leave the Stone Lions and the Cloud Cobras to join the Star Adder invasion/migration, or for either of them to head for the Scorpion Empire instead. On the one hand, the prospect of the Stone Lions and Hell's Horses encountering one another would be too strong a narrative option not to consider - not least if the Horses were themselves to switch sides? On the other hand, the Cobras might be of several minds, with each Cloister holding its own view on where - if anywhere - their touman ought to go.

Perhaps each Cloister might end up going its own Way (so to speak): with some staying behind in the Homeworlds, and the others setting out in other directions.

So perhaps there'd be option 1: Star Adders, Stone Lions, and (Aggressor) Cloud Cobra Cloisters go to the Inner Sphere; Coyotes and (Bastion) Cloud Cobra Cloisters stay behind,

Or option 2: Adders, Lions, and (Aggressor) Cobra Cloisters go to the IS; Coyotes go to the Scorpion Empire; and (Bastion) Cobra Cloisters stay behind.

Unless there is a better "option 3" out there?

-----

But where in the Inner Sphere might the Star Adders and f(r)iends arrive?

For both strategic and narrative reasons, we won't see a re-use of the REVIVAL route. But there is the old Exodus route, leading towards the Pesht and New Samarkand Military Districts: that would place the new invasion corridor between the Rasalhague Dominion and the Raven Alliance.

Or, to approach things from a less expected direction, there is the Federated Suns' Periphery March. But while the Adders would wish to account for House Davion eventually, memories of House Kurita's role during the Amaris Civil War might yet linger - as would the opportunity to strike at the Ghost Bears and Snow Ravens sooner rather than later.

So, perhaps the Stone Lions could park themselves on the opposite side of the Dominion from the Hell's Horses OZ; those Cloud Cobra Cloisters who choose to go could land adjacent to their old foes in the Alliance; with the Star Adders holding the worlds between those two.

Either way, the spinward half of the Inner Sphere has, even now, remained less fragmented than the anti-spinward half has become in the Dark Age and IlClan Eras. Perhaps this might be a way to change that?

[Hellraiser]

Terra’s Industry:  Just going by Sarna, Terra and Mars have hosted between 56 and 80 battlemech production lines.  (See list at bottom.) 
if these factories just turned out 45-50 mechs a month, that’s a mech cluster a month or 3-4 mech galaxies a year.

Code: [Select]

1 Amaris Arms Matar
2 Blankenburg Grim Reaper Crockett
1 Devil’s Peak Revenant
1 Ford Thorn
1 Krupp Dragoon
1 Leopard Red Shift
7 Martinson Initiate Kyudo Lightray Spartan Deva Preta Gregori
2 Ostman Ostwar Ostroc
1 Quarry Emperor
3 RAF Providence Celerity Revenant Lich
6 Sekkaris Deva Malak Preta Grigori Seraph Archangel
5 StarCorps Warhammer Longbow Emperor Highlander Doloire
12 Skobel Jackrabbit Mercury Nexus Osprey Excalibur
Gallant Lament Grand Crusader Legacy Mackie Vanquisher Omega

1 Cosara King Crab
2 General Mechanics Wasp Kintaro
1 Krupp Lancelot
6 Sekkaris Deva Malak Preta Grigori Seraph Archangel

Impressive list.
I count 53 total mechs possible not 56.
But even that I question since I'm wondering about the 6 full duplicate lines for Sekkaris on both Terra/Mars.
As for the Variants, I've never heard of a factory having a line devoted to 2 different variants of the same model so I'm assuming its produced in batches which I have heard of factories doing in cannon.

I seriously question the idea of 45+/Month since that blows away any figure we have ever been given in cannon from what I know.
Tanks are a lot easier to make than mechs which is why they out # them by nearly 6/1 in canon before Planetary Militias are counted in.
Terra was also fluffed as resource starved centuries ago so running them at full capacity w/o the full diplomatic power of the Star League trade agreements doesn't seem feasible.

[Geg]

I think the big thing we will see over the next 20 years, is a lot of quiet.   There might be 1-2 unconnected wars going at any one time, but we won't see a Sphere wide conflict for a decade or more of real world time.   I am expecting the metaplot to crawl forward incredibly slowly, with a lot more small scale stories around the "Red Hunter" and the return of the "Nova Cats" happening against a backdrop of larger conflicts.

Terra-CapCon: ilClan holds off Liao, until the MoC and Andurien stab Daoshen in the back.  Daoshen wants to go for the Gold/Terra, but Danai kills him to protect the state.   She takes over as ruler of both CapCon and MoC, makes peace with herself, and betrays her friend Nikki and invades the FWL in order to consolidate her power.

Combine-Dominion War:  A long brutal slog that drags on for something like a decade.  I don't think they ever join the 3rd League, but they might sit in some sort of council with the ilClan.

ilClan:  Wolf pushes back CapCon, attacks the Horses and forcibly incorporates them into the 3rd League while basically setting up the Republic of the ilClan at the Heart of the the IS. Alaric meets a terrible end, and all this work is done by someone else.

Hinterlands:  Tamar Continues to rise eating into the Horses territory. fusing with the two CJF rumps states, to create a new hybrid Clan IS state, while the Lyrans absorb the rest of the Hinterlands.   Non-zero chance that this area joins up with the 3rd League somehow as a hedge against the Stieners.

FWL-Wolf Empire:   League annexes the Wolf-Empire as member state at the prompting of the Spirit Cats and the Sea Foxes, in order to deal with the threat from Danai.  This will however, bring the FWL and Alaric successor into some sort of common cause against Liao.

Davion-Outworld:  Ravens move fleet assets towards Terra.  Davins hit the Outworld Alliance and try to finish evicting the Ravens.  However, seeing CapCon and the Combine busy elsewhere they take this opportunity to fall into a civil war before they can finish the job.  Ravens pull out and move to Terra anyway.

Overall: I am sort of expecting the 3rd League to include, or to be in alliance with the FWLs primarily due to the efforts of the Sea Foxes.   With the ilClan trying to expand into the CapCon and Lyran space and getting bogged down before making any real headway.   I am also expecting that we'll see a 3rd League, and a ilClan State (former Republic) as two very different things.  I also don't see the ilClan as being very powerful.   It will have Warships to keep it safe and control of the HPGs to keep people putting up with its bullshit, but militarily it will wind up more as a raiding force (that tests itsself against everyone else) that throws a a lot of parties with a lot of ceremony.

Eventually this will stabilize into the CapCon and the Combine taking turns against the FedSuns, while the Lyran's fight against the FWL/3rd League with everybody being bad at the whole conquest things.  Thing something will happen and the Alliances will rotate and a new Era will start.

[Natasha Kerensky]

Impressive list.
I count 53 total mechs possible not 56.
But even that I question since I'm wondering about the 6 full duplicate lines for Sekkaris on both Terra/Mars.
As for the Variants, I've never heard of a factory having a line devoted to 2 different variants of the same model so I'm assuming its produced in batches which I have heard of factories doing in cannon.

I seriously question the idea of 45+/Month since that blows away any figure we have ever been given in cannon from what I know.
Tanks are a lot easier to make than mechs which is why they out # them by nearly 6/1 in canon before Planetary Militias are counted in.
Terra was also fluffed as resource starved centuries ago so running them at full capacity w/o the full diplomatic power of the Star League trade agreements doesn't seem feasible.

It all depends on what FASAnomics assumptions the authors need to make to drive their story arc.  My point is just that Terra has such a large military industrial base on paper that some pretty modest assumptions would give the ilClan the ability to field a large army in a short number of years.  Just to pick on the Sekkaris example, those are 12 omnimech production lines on Terra and Mars. Were they destroyed during Operation SCOUR?  If not, did the Republic carefully mothball them as a hedge against future hostilities?  We just don’t know and authors’ assumptions/decisions on these unknowns (assuming they’re paying attention to the details at all) could wildly swing the ilClan’s  military industrial base one way or the other.

Regarding production capacity, there are factories in the older canon with rates anywhere from a handful of mechs a year to over a hundred a year.  In the real world, things like 747s and M-1s have somewhat higher production rates in the tens to hundreds of units per year.  So although these rates don’t appear in newer canon anymore, for plot background planning purposes, a rate of one mech a month per production line — or 12 per year — seems pretty conservative.  If most of the production lines from that list are intact or recoverable — something like ~50 production lines (whether it’s 45 or or 53 or 56 or 80 is kinda immaterial) — that’s a cluster of mechs a month.  Or 3-4 galaxies a year.  Or 15-20 galaxies within five years.  Even if we halve these numbers due to destruction or inefficiencies, we’re still looking at 8-10 galaxies in five years.  Again, authors could make completely different assumptions about the FASAnomics of Terra.  But my point is that the potential is there on Terra alone to rapidly equip a large army if that’s what the ilClan plot arc needs.

Regarding natural resources, again, whatever the plot needs will dictate the FASAnomics.  But based on the real-world numbers and a lick of common sense, I would ignore any old canon references to Terra or the core worlds beings exhausted.  Don’t even have to retcon.  Just handwave in a sidebar some Homeworlds extraction technologies as greatly extending the viability of Terra’s old mines and be done with it.  Again, if that’s what the plot needs.

FWIW...

[Red Pins]

Hmm.  Predictions?  Ok.  I'm not really up on the latest, but I'll take a shot.

The Periphery gets a little more organized - not much, but the two Calderons get married and turn outward.  Old anti-SL behavior is encouraged to promote growth.  The Marian Hegemony gets smacked down, another palace coup convinces them to settle down and not get massacred while working closer with the others.  Maybe look into joining the new FWL to get out of Alaric's gunsights as he decides to ressurect the SL.

The Wolf empire decides to stay independent, like the Wardens did, but since Alaric is proclaiming himself the First Lord they're walking a fine line between 'We are Clan' and 'No, we won't be best friends'.  The Ravens and Bears are both 'Clans' and 'Prospective members of the SL Council' and jealous to boot, so there are lots of bumps.  Their leadership knows 'lower Caste' complaints are going to tear their nations apart and want better for their citizens.  The Sea Foxes are turning into happy little collaborators - peace, war, stable markets, its all good for business.  The Khans just forget they can't really combine 'Clan' and 'Star League' without social problems.  The Scorpions are ok with Alaric paying attention to them, and are looked down on by the other Clans, but nobody cares - since they aren't 'Clan' anymore.

The Homeworlds...  I don't know - they've taken the 'taint' thing too far.  I think they'll just stay isolated, but that's me.

The Wob - they're still around, and trying to infiltrate the SL.  I get the feeling they're in charge of some small Star League member, trying to do an Amaris, long-term.  They don't mind the SL, just want to be the ones in charge.

The Houses - They're mostly exhausted.  They need time and economic support, to be willing to face another Clan assault.  So they cave and hope the benefits will outweigh the problems.

Alaric eventually calls the leaders of the IS and Periphery to reform the SL, 5-10 years after the victory at Terra.  They show up, but it isn't a friendly meeting.  Its like trying to glue a beer mug back together after an Octoberfest party. 

I expect it will work eventually, but there are enough cracks to start the whole story all over again.

[Metallgewitter]

It all depends on what FASAnomics assumptions the authors need to make to drive their story arc.  My point is just that Terra has such a large military industrial base on paper that some pretty modest assumptions would give the ilClan the ability to field a large army in a short number of years.  Just to pick on the Sekkaris example, those are 12 omnimech production lines on Terra and Mars. Were they destroyed during Operation SCOUR?  If not, did the Republic carefully mothball them as a hedge against future hostilities?  We just don’t know and authors’ assumptions/decisions on these unknowns (assuming they’re paying attention to the details at all) could wildly swing the ilClan’s  military industrial base one way or the other.

We know that the Republic at least kept the schematics of several Blakist Mech models despite the Blakists best efforts to destroy their databases. After all said data became the basis which was used by Comstar to develop the Kheper and Uraeus. I would guess that said factrories should they have survived the Jihad were either mothballed or repurposed for either civilan production (possible) or Mech designs without the Word baggage. We know that the Republic build several nech facilities but not all of them were on Terra. New Earth had the comstar facilities and somne were opened on Epsilon Eridani and other planets. So they are either in Capellan or Wolves hands (or even the Combine)

[Hellraiser]

a rate of one mech a month per production line — or 12 per year — seems pretty conservative.   

I thought you were saying 45/Month for a Single Line.
12/Year is very realistic.

The 2 top end figures I've seen, IIRC are the fully automated SLDF era Valkyrie factory on New Avalon at 130+/Year in 3025,  and,  the 3050+ Figure for Vulcans coming out of the FWL which went from..... IIRC,   like 20/Year to 14/Month, or something like that after the Helm Core allowed for factory improvements.
The Vulcan figures are from the original Marik book & 3050U but I don't recall them exactly.

Nothing else comes close to either those from what I recall.

[Generic Clanner 24601]

Good scenarios, particularly about the Empire turning on Alaric (making some kind of deal with FWL, Spirit Cats and Protectorate ?)

Possibly, but I like the idea that they lose enough territory that once they turn on Alaric that the Lyrans and FWL consider the forces it would take to destroy them completely to be too high. Not that they wouldn't probe them or raid them but wouldn't bother trying to destroy them completely. The Wolf's Dragoons would no longer have a reason to see them crushed, so while they would take standard contracts against them, they would no longer be a priority. And just because I love the troll, I'd want to see the Dragoons give them one of Alaric's sibko children.

Actually, now that I think about it, this could cause the Wolf scientist caste to confirm Alaric's true make-up, further splitting the Clans. Though the Star League will just accuse them of lying and falsifying evidence. They are traitors after all.

[CJC070]

ilClan:  Wolf pushes back CapCon, attacks the Horses and forcibly incorporates them into the 3rd League while basically setting up the Republic of the ilClan at the Heart of the the IS. Alaric meets a terrible end, and all this work is done by someone else.

Hinterlands:  Tamar Continues to rise eating into the Horses territory. fusing with the two CJF rumps states, to create a new hybrid Clan IS state, while the Lyrans absorb the rest of the Hinterlands.   Non-zero chance that this area joins up with the 3rd League somehow as a hedge against the Stieners.

Unless Alaric wishes to abandon Terra (the great prize) I doubt he could muster the forces to take out the Hells Horses.  I can see a fusion (and conflict) of the various factions in Tamar but I think (and hope) that that will take 50+ years not twenty.  On the other hand if I’m wrong then I’m wrong but kudos for the analysis.

[Metallgewitter]

If there ever will be a confrontation between the Horses and the Wolves I expect the Horses to be under a new leader by then. We have already gotten the hints about this new ristar called Cobb and if story repeats itself for the Horses this Cobb will lead the Horses properly and trash the Wolves again. And who knows maybe under hius leadership we might get a new fusion between the Rump-Falcons, Horses maybe one Lyran fiefdom and even some disilusioned Ghostbears

[Church14]

Worth noting that specific numbers for Terra are irrelevant. We have FM3145, Shattered Fortress, and HotW all telling us the same thing. Terra cannot produce enough to sustain a military against multiple aggressors, regardless of how batshit the specific numbers get, there aren’t enough people willing and able to fight on Terra to sustain a war machine like that. Hell, prefecture X couldn’t and wolves don’t have that.

Hard stop. Unless we give wolves bullshit plot armor, this has been a constant since 2013.


But, to actually contribute? Going round the IS clock
- RasDom will eventually side with the anti-ilclan forces. The war with DC isn’t so short or victorious and it guts the joiner influence.
- DC defends luthien like a possum screaming at god over a bagel. It also defends Deiron similarly near Terra.
- I think ravens will punch OWA too hard and we see an uprising. It only works because ravens shifted resources coreward for the ilclan
- FS doesn’t do jack. They push ravens back, but can’t sustain offensive operations to take large tracts because Taurians keep it together long enough to reunify and FS has to redeploy to counter.
- CC doesnt so much lose against the wolves, but they suspend operations to take Terra “until a future date” after casualties reach a point that invasion isn’t sustainable.
- FWL trashes most of the empire, sits incredibly strong while sustaining
- Lyrans get a single boon when one RCT , against orders. recaptured huge chunks of the empire. Otherwise they are quiet and helping their buffer states eat damage instead of them
Hinterlands shrinks as Horses and Jiyi gobble up territory, but isn’t gone.

As for Terra. Wolves beat back the CCAF, but it costs them. Their losses are too high to do it alone. Alaric dies in a trial he refused to acknowledge up until someone shot him for being a truly shitty ilKhan. His replacement drew in the Foxes and ravens tighter and created an actual league. Unfortunately, they lack the ground forces to really take territory, so the entire region around Terra is basically a chaos march of traded worlds. The only times they do make progress it northwards to old Falcon worlds or some RasDom territory. Their one real victory is the new ilKhan manages to create an annual meeting of house and clan leaders in Terra and being the host lets them dictate circumstances and influence terms.

[Natasha Kerensky]

Worth noting that specific numbers for Terra are irrelevant. We have FM3145, Shattered Fortress, and HotW all telling us the same thing. Terra cannot produce enough to sustain a military against multiple aggressors,

Terra under the Republic did not produce enough.  IlClan can be different.  Just one example, IlClan has Fox, Raven, and Free Guild support that the Republic did not.  That’s a lot of muscle to restore, convert, and/or man manufacturing lines.

That doesn’t mean it will happen.  FASAnomics serves the plot, not the other way around.  But we shouldn’t equate the Republic’s capabilities with the ilClan’s capabilities.  They will almost certainly be different, one way or another.

regardless of how batshit the specific numbers get, there aren’t enough people willing and able to fight on Terra to sustain a war machine like that.

There are references in the canon to the ComGuard and Blakists recruiting from Terra’s population.  Again, the plot will determine whether the ilClan attempts or has any success recruiting from Terra.  But that population is so huge relative to the size of BT armies that even a grossly inept recruitment campaign would meet the requirement.

[rebs]

Some interesting fan fiction in the comments!

[Church14]

Terra under the Republic did not produce enough.  IlClan can be different.  Just one example, IlClan has Fox, Raven, and Free Guild support that the Republic did not.  That’s a lot of muscle to restore, convert, and/or man manufacturing lines.

That doesn’t mean it will happen.  FASAnomics serves the plot, not the other way around.  But we shouldn’t equate the Republic’s capabilities with the ilClan’s capabilities.  They will almost certainly be different, one way or another.

Rots had 20 years of bringing war industry online. In the end they had more mechs and hardware than trained fighting troops. Terra produces hardware. People are the issue. There wasn’t a spare fighting person left on Terra.

And wolves have done everything they can to not warrant the loyalty of the people. So the capabilities shouldn’t be the same. Wolves should struggle horribly dealing with Terra’s citizens absolutely hating their guts for an impressive variety of justified reasons.

.
There are references in the canon to the ComGuard and Blakists recruiting from Terra’s population.  Again, the plot will determine whether the ilClan attempts or has any success recruiting from Terra.  But that population is so huge relative to the size of BT armies that even a grossly inept recruitment campaign would meet the requirement.

If battletech army sizes ever reflected real world proportions, sure. But they never have. Not even close. It’s around 1/400 of what you’d expect. As for CS and WoB, they were able to recruit massive number probably because they’d spent centuries leading Terra as actual good custodians of the planet. Wolves just showed up, destroyed the government, murdered Terra’s beloved (justified or not) leader who’s guided Terra for near a century, murdered civilians intentionally, then brought the falcons, who slaughtered everyone near them, and now just promised to do the opposite of a 70 years of Terran propaganda.

But yes, we could break the rules for wolves and say that in spite of the entire recent history of the sphere they can massively recruit from Terra.



OR, we can stop giving the wolves a free pass and make them actually work for it. Show them struggle, show them forced to evolve because Alaric has no idea how to lead, just how to conquer. The least interesting and least believable option is that the wolves secure Terra and start winning big time. 

[Minemech]

 The Wolves lose to a large Capellan task force on Terra. Daoshen gets ahead of himself and declares himself First Lord of a new Star League. The other Successor Lords reciprocate, starting with Yori, then Trillian and Julian when they receive word followed by an exasperated Nikol who waited until she knew the other states were counterbalancing the CapCon. Much to everyone else's surprise the various Clans also reciprocate with announcements of an ilKhan equivalent though how this equivalence works out is undefined, enabling the Clan Protectorate to remain. The Clans in particular undergo accelerated changes with their interactions with the people, some loudly and outrightly disowning Nicholas Kerensky's way like they disavow Clan Wolf's claim to ilClanship. The Inner Sphere is somewhat balanced in terms of power, with the Lyrans generously overpaying mercenary units, many of unconfirmed origin.

 The Wolf Empire relocated during the interim and where they are in the process of rebuilding their touman. Jade Falcon remnants are also trying to rebuild their Clan from the fringes. The Jaguar remnants quietly run to Tortuga Prime and work to rebuild from there using whatever they could take with them. 
 
 As for the mini states, whatever makes the story interesting.

 As for if the Capellans keep Terra, nope. Nor do they come out swinging, they are hurt like everyone else.

[Natasha Kerensky]

There wasn’t a spare fighting person left on Terra.

That doesn’t square with what happened in HotW or with Terra’s population figures.  The population of Terra and Mars tops 14 billion.   For there to be no “spare fighting person left on Terra”, HotW would need to have depicted billions and billions of casualties practically wiping out or sidelining the adult population of every continent on Terra and on Mars.  That clearly did not happen, not even close.

Even if HotW wiped out every adult in the Terran system between the ages of 18 and 50 (or whatever defines fighting age), there will still be low billions of 17- and 16- and 15-year olds coming up right behind them. 

And wolves have done everything they can to not warrant the loyalty of the people.

No doubt.  But when working from a base of 14 billion souls, the Wolves only need to convince a really small percentage — we’re talking about 0.00004% of the population of Terra and Mars — to bulk out their forces with enough combat and support personnel to man ~100 galaxies.

That doesn’t mean it’s going to happen.  But the ilClan now has access to a population on Terra that totally eclipses the combined population of all the Clan Homeworlds at their peak.  It could be transformative if the authors wanted.  (It arguably was for the Blakists.  No reason it wouldn’t be for the ilClan in the coming years other than story arc requirements.)

OR, we can stop giving the wolves a free pass and make them actually work for it.

HotW, parts of Dominions Divided, and some other products have been poorly conceived or written.  That doesn’t change the in-universe reality of how large Terra’s population is or what it’s latent industrial capacity could be.  The Wolves/ilClan should have better obstacles to overcome, but the obstacles should be part of the plot, not background stuff like recruitment and production.

[Church14]

That doesn’t square with what happened in HotW or with Terra’s population figures.

It absolutely does. I’m citing Rock of the republic, which was part of HotW before it got spun off that bloated mess to become its own thing. Stone ran out of people who would and could fight that had sufficient training to be useful. This was a guy who turned Terra to a war footing. If they could have trained more at a time, they would have. Thanks to BS artificial limits out in place to cripple the RotS enough to pretend that we could pretend the wolves earned a win, wolves are stuck with it too.

That doesn’t square with what happened in HotW or with Terra’s population figures.  The population of Terra and Mars tops 14 billion.   For there to be no “spare fighting person left on Terra”, HotW would need to have depicted billions and billions of casualties practically wiping out or sidelining the adult population of every continent on Terra and on Mars.  That clearly did not happen, not even close.

Even if HotW wiped out every adult in the Terran system between the ages of 18 and 50 (or whatever defines fighting age), there will still be low billions of 17- and 16- and 15-year olds coming up right behind them. 

No doubt.  But when working from a base of 14 billion souls, the Wolves only need to convince a really small percentage — we’re talking about 0.00004% of the population of Terra and Mars — to bulk out their forces with enough combat and support personnel to man ~100 galaxies.

That doesn’t mean it’s going to happen.  But the ilClan now has access to a population on Terra that totally eclipses the combined population of all the Clan Homeworlds at their peak.  It could be transformative if the authors wanted.  (It arguably was for the Blakists.  No reason it wouldn’t be for the ilClan in the coming years other than story arc requirements.)

Battletech has always had a very special few who are still willing and able to fight. It’s baffling and unrealistic, but it is what the setting has set its entire lifespan. The only time we exceed that is WoB style buildup in secret. Which we see that army cannot be sustained during regular use. Wolves do not have that luxury of super secret buildup.

So we have RotR, part of HotW, that tells us Stone had nobody left that he could recruit and train in time. Wolves own those academies now, but they have entire classes of RAF trainees indoctrinated against them. It’ll be years before any meaningful numbers come their way, and it’ll be mostly infantry and tankers, who they don’t want.

If we used the actual real world percentages for fighting age people who volunteer to sign up, every army in the sphere would be 400X larger. We can’t use real life, practical assumptions. Battletech never has. Why suddenly unlock the 400X multiplier after forty years? Why do so to further plot armor the already plot vaccinated?

[Church14]

I guess just let me put it this way. Wolves got to asspull an entire house army worth of troops in FM3145. 30ish clusters powered by bondcord juice and someone spamming the infinite economy button. To have the wolves supposedly pay dearly to take Terra, only to asspull another sphere wrecking sized army out of their asses is an incredibly boring, bald faced favoritism, rehash of previous impossible wins. It robs the era of any tension or interest because the people who are on top keep winning and reducing their enemies to wrecked husks. I cannot describe how unbelievably boring it becomes to people who are tired of watching the wolves steamroll everyone. I can’t be bothered to bust out the kazoo to blow a tune for their ascension to ilclan because their victory kazoo is worn out.

Since this is a thread about lore predictions 20 years from now. I’m choosing to believe the devs and writing group learned something from the nine alarm dumpster fire that was HotW and stopped giving the wolves everything they wanted on an easy breezy platter. The most interesting path is where the ilclan must compromise and clan dreams are called into question. That can’t happen if wolves keep winning. Doesn’t happen if Terra magically switches to infinite economy.