An Exercise in the Hypothetical: The Delayed Clan Invasion and the Inner Sphere

[Minemech]

so more UAC/5s.

UAC5s were used to replace the regular AC/5s on the Hermes II, and Shadow Hawk, and to increase the firepower and range of a Cicada. They were a cheap upgrade, and should not be seen as more.

[Minemech]

1.  The Atlas-7S kept its AC20.   The Axeman was made w/ an AC20 instead of a Gauss Rifle.   Why would the Victor have been inappropriate w/ an AC20 when it turned around & went back to an AC20 is more than 1 later model?

2.  Sooo, you get to disregard all 8 examples of FC usage of the Gauss Rifle PRE-3058 & keep your 2 to show a precedent?
Okay, I'm done talking about this now.

I did not cross out the Banshee, I was admiring it. Frankly you are going to have to accept that 3055 goes to great lengths to explain that all FedCom designed Gauss boats in it were only made because the clans were scary. It does so in all three. The fourth was mismarked.

[GreekFire]

I’d be interested in hearing people’s thoughts on what would happen with Operation Scorpion, the real Thomas Marik, and the fake Marik puppet at the head of the League.

[Minemech]

1.  The Atlas-7S kept its AC20.   The Axeman was made w/ an AC20 instead of a Gauss Rifle.   Why would the Victor have been inappropriate w/ an AC20 when it turned around & went back to an AC20 is more than 1 later model?

I missed this on my screen scroll. That Atlas does seem to retain the AC/20, whilst rolling in erroneous upgrades.
 I think that AC/20s are better for some mechs, so you are preaching to the choir on the Victor. Part of 3050 was what is called "New toy syndrome." Technologies were applied to designs where they were not terribly useful. Others seem to have been applied for picket duty, with the idea of upgrading them later on.

[Minemech]

 That said, I do think that there would have been Gauss armed FedCom mechs without the Clan invasion, I just do not think that they would have looked like the Gunslinger, or the Hollander. I also think that they would have been competent and dangerous, possibly including that King Crab variant. There probably would have been greater proliferation of Arrows by most militaries also. The question is without the clans, how influential would the Knights of the Inner Sphere been?

[Colt Ward]

I’d be interested in hearing people’s thoughts on what would happen with Operation Scorpion, the real Thomas Marik, and the fake Marik puppet at the head of the League.

Scorpion was executed b/c Tukayyid was going off . . . so it never happens, and without Word of Blake does the Master ever matter?

IF we ended up with a 5th Succession War- say after the FC decides to finish the Cappies and the other two decide to get involved- then I think you might have seen Scorpion dusted off.

[RifleMech]

Without looking up who made what, is it possible any of the FC mechs used Gauss Rifles made in the FWL? That would be in keeping with the FC buying weapons from the FWL.

[massey]

 By contrast, TRO 3058 implies that the FedCom had specs for powerful Gauss boats all along, thus the desperation behind these designs was brushed aside. This completely rewrote the narrative behind the force design of the BattleTech universe.

Yeah, that's part of the post-Invasion retcon.  If I had to explain it away, I'd say that the big 3058 gauss mechs had probably been out of production for so long that they'd been forgotten about.  They were all basically late-Star League era wonder toys that only got built for a few years before the Succession Wars kicked off.  Historically they'd have been a fairly minor footnote, never manufactured in large enough numbers to survive into later eras, and too expensive to really be justified. 

Even notes saying that the Devastator started production in 3048 can be explained away by saying it was extremely low-rate production.  Which really makes sense, because the "cram as many gauss rifles as possible" method isn't necessarily the most effective design.  It's helpful versus the Clans, because of their great ranges.  But pre-Invasion, the Inner Sphere fought differently.  The gauss boats don't actually churn out as much damage as an old tech Stalker.

Until the Clans came around with their high-speed, long-range method of fighting, there was nothing pushing the Inner Sphere to adopt those types of designs.

[Colt Ward]

IMO the Devastator-2 is different than the Thunderhawk because you have the PPCs and MLs, its a better machine for fighting the IS than the Clans.  The DVS-1 was in production earlier IIRC.

But yeah, plumbing the Gauss Rifle FedCom designs . . . basically the Nightstar, Thunderhawk, and Devastator are the new builds, but the Lyran half of the FedCom was putting one on everything.

I think ranged fire will still skew designs towards that but not as extreme as the Invasion- the fighting increases from lance on lance to battalion on battalion with supports battles.  Designers would still want long ranged fire so they can mass it, but the balance calculations would be different . . . like the Devastator-2 mounts PPCs rather than ERPPCs to be able to maintain the rate of fire with heat limitations.  The mech cannot bear the heat burden of the ERs b/c its crit packed, so it was better to give it regular PPCs.  Or you are more likely to see the Nightstar 9FC as the primary model rather than the one we got b/c the Clans.

TRO 3058 to me was blowing off the dust from Helm recorded SL gauss designs b/c they were no longer desperate and were looking for better answers than their make-do during the Clan invasion.

[Minemech]

In the 3040s-mid 3050s, the Gauss competed with the LB-10X AC as a main gun for troopers. Other popular alternatives were twin ER Large lasers, an ER PPC (Or 2), or a Large Pulse Laser.  The Lyran side seemed to have eschewed the LB-10X.

[Colt Ward]

Some of that IMO reflects the fractured nature of the League, but pre-LGR when I think FWL, its Large Lasers and LRMs.  I suggested the UAC/5 since we get it with several designs and if substituted for the Clan derived UAC/10 would also cover a lot of ground.  I can only think of a few League designs that were using Gauss Rifles, and the ERPPC would be present just for the Awesomes being able to finally get PPCs of any type being built again.

Actually, interesting FWL question . . . would we have seen a MAD-4M based off the -4X rather than a -5M?

For all that the FedCom, League and Dracs are the strongest realms with no Clan invasion, what happens 3050-3070 would IMO depend on Sun Tzu & the Capellan Confederation.  No Clan distraction, no cover of legitimacy from a 2nd Star League, possibly Hanse still kicking past 3050, and no Clan pushed arms race- how can Sun-Tzu get his Xin Sheng going?

Sunny would be the pivot point that kicked off a 5SW IMO.

[grimlock1]

I give it even money if we see ER medium, ER Small, Streak 4 and Streak 6 in 10 years. Similar for the rest of the A/C families. You can bet that SLDF King Crab drivers looked at those Hermes punks with their spiffy new Ultra A/C 5's and asked, "Why can't I have Ultras?"  That's not a case of needing the Clans to push innovation. That's just a matter of "we haven't figured it out yet."

Other's have said that mechs, especially the heavy cav role, won't be quite as fast. I agree that most of the weight savings would go into weapons. Everyone had gotten along just fine without maxed armor on everything for centuries.  The 3050 crop would see a lot more firepower, but not much change in armor levels.  So a lot of mechs are going to die, pretty quickly. But then I expect development to kind of mirror the main timeline. Designers will start to explore other corners of the iron triangle.   Eventually we have a swing back to SFE's, like in TRO3060.   

C3 would never have taken off.  It was almost exclusive to DCMS for a long time, even with the Outreach agreement.  But the only reason the DCMS used it was because they were at a disadvantage against the Clanners.  In a "fair" fight against AFFC units, few if any samurai would "stoop" to using C3. 

Technologies we would not see are light gauss, and heavy/light PPC.  Okay, maybe the light PPC might show up, if that's an outgrowth of the snubbie, which was developed back during the Star League.  The hPPC was a direct answer to the ruinous cERPPC, and the light gauss was an attempt to match the Clan gauss.  I'm not sure about HGR and iHGR.   Light engines probably wouldn't happen, and neither would heavy or light ferro fiberous.

[Minemech]

Some of that IMO reflects the fractured nature of the League

Actually it was an issue afflicting every state. Part of choosing a main gun is dependent upon a mech's profile, and the initial upgrades of many mechs in 3050 were upped versions of the same things. The LB-10X had a special utility in that it was a magnificent tool for combined arms, something that the Lyran side did not seem to appreciate, yet the Davion side immediately exploited on its troopers like the Enforcer, or Centurion.

[Minemech]

  I suggested the UAC/5 since we get it with several designs and if substituted for the Clan derived UAC/10 would also cover a lot of ground.  I can only think of a few League designs that were using Gauss Rifles, and the ERPPC would be present just for the Awesomes being able to finally get PPCs of any type being built again.

Actually, interesting FWL question . . . would we have seen a MAD-4M based off the -4X rather than a -5M?

Is this more of a question of if the League would update the Binary Laser? I think that it is likely.

For all that the FedCom, League and Dracs are the strongest realms with no Clan invasion, what happens 3050-3070 would IMO depend on Sun Tzu & the Capellan Confederation.  No Clan distraction, no cover of legitimacy from a 2nd Star League, possibly Hanse still kicking past 3050, and no Clan pushed arms race- how can Sun-Tzu get his Xin Sheng going?

Sunny would be the pivot point that kicked off a 5SW IMO.

Xin Sheng would have to trap the AFFC units into committing war crimes against civilians, and then broadcast them all over the Inner Sphere. He would have to respond in a limited, and proportionate manner, and hope that the outrage acts as cover. It would not be enough to retake commonalities, but it could nab items if successful.

[Colt Ward]

Good point about the light engines, but I am not sure about the different FF armors.  Both of them to me would be efforts to adjust the armor side of that design triangle.  Something that would be interesting . . . would we get the Enhanced ERPPC the Widowmakers developed?

C3 would never have taken off.  It was almost exclusive to DCMS for a long time, even with the Outreach agreement.  But the only reason the DCMS used it was because they were at a disadvantage against the Clanners.  In a "fair" fight against AFFC units, few if any samurai would "stoop" to using C3. 

This I disagree with, because Theodore was Gunrei and in charge of the DCMS . . . now, would the Sword of Light regiments get C3i?  No, but the Ghost, Ryuken and Genoshya would take those mechs.  The DCMS having a split personality between the samurai and warfighters existed before the Clans ever showed up, Theo was involved in sparking it during the War of 3039.


Xin Sheng was about a rebirth of Capellan pride . . . not sure how getting war crime'd would do that for the CapCon.  Sunny would have a very limited opening to gain victories to usher in that rebirth . . . in fact all I can think of unless the FedCom gets really wrapped up or distracted on the Clan Invasion level would be to ally with the Magistracy and invade parts of the TC.  Just do not hit any FedCom border worlds where the nukes are waiting for Hanse's boys.

Or go for the diplomatic coup and bring in the New Detroit area as a new commonality.  Gives you the public message 'Look- we are so great these folks came back centuries after we abandoned them to rejoin the great Confederation!'

[Minemech]

Xin Sheng was about a rebirth of Capellan pride . . . not sure how getting war crime'd would do that for the CapCon.  Sunny would have a very limited opening to gain victories to usher in that rebirth . . . in fact all I can think of unless the FedCom gets really wrapped up or distracted on the Clan Invasion level would be to ally with the Magistracy and invade parts of the TC.  Just do not hit any FedCom border worlds where the nukes are waiting for Hanse's boys.

Or go for the diplomatic coup and bring in the New Detroit area as a new commonality.  Gives you the public message 'Look- we are so great these folks came back centuries after we abandoned them to rejoin the great Confederation!'

The cultural propaganda side of Xin Sheng would go along, just as other Liao have used the tactic before. Xin Sheng, without the reconquest, would be a footnote.

[Colt Ward]

Depends on how its spun and how the Mask sets up the discontented to be fodder for the 'Victorious Capellans' propaganda mill.  The New Colonies Region, Aurian Coalition, and further into the Periphery is the 'safest' direction the CapCon can go to help build national pride and retake what was lost.

After that, formenting a Skye rebellion (and how would that work in '57 & '65) or the Tamar/FRR competing claims distracting the FedCom might let him take a stab at the SIC.  But to be successful, I think the Allard-Liao family would have to be taking a family photo on metal risers on wet ground and the extension cord runs through a puddle next to them.  Reabsorb the SIC to be under the Liao family.

Would Kai have ever become Champion?

[Minemech]

Depends on how its spun and how the Mask sets up the discontented to be fodder for the 'Victorious Capellans' propaganda mill.  The New Colonies Region, Aurian Coalition, and further into the Periphery is the 'safest' direction the CapCon can go to help build national pride and retake what was lost.

After that, formenting a Skye rebellion (and how would that work in '57 & '65) or the Tamar/FRR competing claims distracting the FedCom might let him take a stab at the SIC.  But to be successful, I think the Allard-Liao family would have to be taking a family photo on metal risers on wet ground and the extension cord runs through a puddle next to them.  Reabsorb the SIC to be under the Liao family.

Would Kai have ever become Champion?

King Ralph was a good movie

[grimlock1]

Good point about the light engines, but I am not sure about the different FF armors.  Both of them to me would be efforts to adjust the armor side of that design triangle.  Something that would be interesting . . . would we get the Enhanced ERPPC the Widowmakers developed?

  If I was running the lab, you can bet we would have explored the different FF armors.  And light PPCs and heavy ppcs, and then when the snubnose came out, I would have tried to make a heavy snubbie. But I'm that kind of researcher. 

Results are still hard to predict.  A colleague was telling me how our university became a center for research in a particular field just because there was the right concentration of various specialists.  It came down to somebody was having lunch with a friend from another department one day.  Suddenly people over in chemistry are writing papers that are tangentially related to research being done over Agricultural Engineering, then a couple papers come out of the bio department.  Then the comp sci folks hear about this really thorny computer modeling problem, and think they can get a paper out of it.

A jump like the Enhanced ER PPC would require that kind of synthesis.  The hPPC is much bigger and heavier, but the EERPPC is the same size yet hits harder.  That's a sea change.

This I disagree with, because Theodore was Gunrei and in charge of the DCMS . . . now, would the Sword of Light regiments get C3i?  No, but the Ghost, Ryuken and Genoshya would take those mechs.  The DCMS having a split personality between the samurai and warfighters existed before the Clans ever showed up, Theo was involved in sparking it during the War of 3039.

I generally agree with you on the units you listed, but there are a lot of other units in the DCMS.  Most folks in the Legion And most of those troops probably dream about scoring transfers to the Sword of Light. The Ryuken might get on board wtih C3, but Genoshya seems more more conservative.   The Legion of Vega would be all over C3.  And what's interesting is that as people transfer back to their old units after serving their penence in the Legion, they might bring new ideas and tech with them. 

[Hellraiser]

Without the Outreach conference....   I see C3 as being a niche tech that about 1/3 of the DC uses & no one else in the IS has even heard of for a good 20 years.

[Maingunnery]

Some of that IMO reflects the fractured nature of the League, but pre-LGR when I think FWL, its Large Lasers and LRMs.  I suggested the UAC/5 since we get it with several designs and if substituted for the Clan derived UAC/10 would also cover a lot of ground.  I can only think of a few League designs that were using Gauss Rifles, and the ERPPC would be present just for the Awesomes being able to finally get PPCs of any type being built again.

Actually, interesting FWL question . . . would we have seen a MAD-4M based off the -4X rather than a -5M?

For all that the FedCom, League and Dracs are the strongest realms with no Clan invasion, what happens 3050-3070 would IMO depend on Sun Tzu & the Capellan Confederation.  No Clan distraction, no cover of legitimacy from a 2nd Star League, possibly Hanse still kicking past 3050, and no Clan pushed arms race- how can Sun-Tzu get his Xin Sheng going?

Sunny would be the pivot point that kicked off a 5SW IMO.

I think that the FC is going to be the aggressor for the 5SW, with them putting 'new' powerful designs into production as a preparation to invade. 

[massey]

Without the Clans hitting the LC half of the FedCom, I don’t think the Capellans are going to have any prayer of retaking worlds from the Fed Suns.  The Clans threw everything out of whack and distracted half of the Inner Sphere from their traditional rivalries.  Any attempt to counter-invade would be met by Davion smackdown.

In fact, if Hanse wanted to kick off a 5th Succession War, that might be how he’d have to do it. Lure the Capellans into attacking first so that he can act justified when he smashes their realm.

[Colt Ward]

I think that the FC is going to be the aggressor for the 5SW, with them putting 'new' powerful designs into production as a preparation to invade.

Except in 3049 Hanse clearly stats that he and Theo have a tacit agreement to let the FS-DC wars pass to a new generation.  Which means if he DOES plan some action, its not against the DC unless something drastically changes IMO and it would be something fast or small so it would be over with before the DC/League can take advantage.  I mean from the FedCom angle, invading the Taurians would make a good training exercise except for that whole fanatics with nukes and a paranoid Calderon thing.

Unless Thomas power weakens for some reason which invites a push from the LC portion.

[Daryk]

The Capellans would absolutely be an easier target than the Taurians.

[Maingunnery]

Except in 3049 Hanse clearly stats that he and Theo have a tacit agreement to let the FS-DC wars pass to a new generation.  Which means if he DOES plan some action, its not against the DC unless something drastically changes IMO and it would be something fast or small so it would be over with before the DC/League can take advantage.  I mean from the FedCom angle, invading the Taurians would make a good training exercise except for that whole fanatics with nukes and a paranoid Calderon thing.

Unless Thomas power weakens for some reason which invites a push from the LC portion.

No need to say "except", I never suggested the DC.

But a side-note, if another state falls to the FC, such as the CC, then the other players (DC, FWL, Periphery, ComStar?) would be forced to form a new pseudo 'Star League' to counter FC aggression.

[Minemech]

Without the Outreach conference....   I see C3 as being a niche tech that about 1/3 of the DC uses & no one else in the IS has even heard of for a good 20 years.

A formidable technology when employed correctly. It is fair to assume that the states will be raiding each other consistently, but at a careful pace, so they may gain the right understanding to do so.

[Minemech]

Yeah, that's part of the post-Invasion retcon.  If I had to explain it away, I'd say that the big 3058 gauss mechs had probably been out of production for so long that they'd been forgotten about.  They were all basically late-Star League era wonder toys that only got built for a few years before the Succession Wars kicked off.  Historically they'd have been a fairly minor footnote, never manufactured in large enough numbers to survive into later eras, and too expensive to really be justified. 

Even notes saying that the Devastator started production in 3048 can be explained away by saying it was extremely low-rate production.  Which really makes sense, because the "cram as many gauss rifles as possible" method isn't necessarily the most effective design.  It's helpful versus the Clans, because of their great ranges.  But pre-Invasion, the Inner Sphere fought differently.  The gauss boats don't actually churn out as much damage as an old tech Stalker.

Until the Clans came around with their high-speed, long-range method of fighting, there was nothing pushing the Inner Sphere to adopt those types of designs.

Unfortunately, they became seen as defining designs, rather than a desperate response to a problem.

[Hellraiser]

When you say "always had them" are you saying they had them from the time of the SLDF?

My understanding was the 3058 mechs were also included in the Helm Core but never had downgraded L1 versions that stayed in partial production.  (Except the Lynx, IIRC)

They were only put back into production after factories were repaired around the same time the IS was also looking at new mech (3055) designs.

They were not purely exclusive to the FC, though they did get quite a few.  Probably to offset the flood of Omni's the DC got.
DC was making the Lynx.
CC was making the Pillager.
CS was making the Excalibur.

[Minemech]

When you say "always had them" are you saying they had them from the time of the SLDF?

My understanding was the 3058 mechs were also included in the Helm Core but never had downgraded L1 versions that stayed in partial production.  (Except the Lynx, IIRC)

They were only put back into production after factories were repaired around the same time the IS was also looking at new mech (3055) designs.

They were not purely exclusive to the FC, though they did get quite a few.  Probably to offset the flood of Omni's the DC got.
DC was making the Lynx.
CC was making the Pillager.
CS was making the Excalibur.

House Davion got the Devastator specs from a SLDF base, before getting their hands on the Core. They apparently had quietly upgraded them in time for the Clan invasion. They did so soo quietly, that they themselves seemed unaware that they were even fielding upgraded Devastators at the time.
 
 

[Minemech]

The Pillager was a late addition to the SIC. I should note that the SIC was really into upgunned, and overarmored mechs, because they knew that the Capellan Confederation was gunning for them. They were also into jump jets. It is true that it was retro-Star League, but it still entered production in the late 3050s.