The Empire has a large swath of worlds I think it'll still be standing and if it isn't then the survivors retreat to Terra and Alaric wins by default. That is if he wants them I guess the silence from Terra to the Wolves is weird. Maybe he sees the warriors like the Dragoons not worthy of his ilClan and he wants to build up all over again with his "Terran" Wolves the core like the old Royal forces of the first SLDF Alaric likes symbolism much like his mother
GenCon Diorama looks like Capellans already cut Alaric off before the dust settled on Terra. To be fair, this doesn’t mean Alaric can’t break the door open, but it has been shut on him at least once now.
Add in then that the FWL accidentally took 20% of the Empire and is now going to start trying.
Add in even one Lyran general bucking Trillian and saying it’s go time. There are no units of note defending the northern half of the Empire. A single RCT could conquer dozens of systems at breakneck speed.
Then we have the bare ten clusters of the Empire, of which several are already mangled, two are bogged down on New Olympia. And one is stranded on Simpson Desert.
The only thing the Empire has going for it is the Spina Khanate that could spend about five clusters worth of troops to help defend the Empire, but for what? Othar traded away his most valuable assets already to buy time. There’s also the point that the protectorate (Spirit Cats) have every reason to side with FWL and very little beyond ideology to side with the Empire. Ideology is cold comfort if your actions result in the destruction of your nation.
Now, the meta point: I think CGL is going to be cautious about wiping a faction after the unbridled tire fire of the end of the RotS. But eliminating Alaric’s or Othar’s wolves (just one) still leaves Wolves alive and finally creates a “found out” stage of wolves taking such stupid risks.
All that said, I think the empire will survive as a shadow of its former self and probably will be hostile to Alaric. They know he freely abandoned them and put them at huge risk for Alaric’s personal gain.