Author Topic: Mineral discovery yields "semi-infinite" supply of rare-earths  (Read 1480 times)

ANS Kamas P81

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https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/16/asia/japan-rare-earth-metals-find-china-economy-trnd/index.html

One for the geologists, it's practically Santa Claus' own sack for modern electronics suppliers.
Quote
'The 16 million tons of materials could contain 780 years worth of yttrium, 620 years worth of europium, 420 years worth of terbium, and 730 years worth of dysprosium.'  That's centuries of the entire planetary demand for those materials, currently 95% of which come from China.
Now, I'm gonna ballpark it's probably been sixty or seventy years since we've started mining that stuff and putting it to use...that means this one tiny island has sitting on it ten times or more the amount of material that has ever been harvested by man, and it's just...sitting there.

Think what this could do for the future of the electronics industry; just the very existence of it is going to send the RE markets aflutter, and well...all that estimate of supply?  That's based on current world use, and yet none of that's been touched yet.  We could double the amount of major rare earths in global trade within a couple years, and hold it at that level for the better part of a millenium.

Anyone want to guess where electronics can go after this?
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Kidd

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Re: Mineral discovery yields "semi-infinite" supply of rare-earths
« Reply #1 on: 17 April 2018, 00:58:09 »
There are also significant deposits in US and Australia. Its just that China REMs are much cheaper, in part cause of economies of scale and purchasing power disparity, in part cause lord knows what mining/refining practices they have over there...

ANS Kamas P81

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Re: Mineral discovery yields "semi-infinite" supply of rare-earths
« Reply #2 on: 17 April 2018, 02:40:34 »
Let's not get into the politics of things, but more what they can go into.

Or what kind of bizarre geology that caused this?
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glitterboy2098

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Re: Mineral discovery yields "semi-infinite" supply of rare-earths
« Reply #3 on: 17 April 2018, 02:53:58 »
suffice to say they can offer cheaper mining and refining of the stuff than most of other countries can. not only in china itself, but also in the african sites they've heavily invested in. at least for now.

elf25s

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Re: Mineral discovery yields "semi-infinite" supply of rare-earths
« Reply #4 on: 17 April 2018, 05:51:23 »
keep in mind that in long run that may turn out to be worthless. at the rate we are changing our tech since transistors came about and silicone had been steadly replaced as the material of choice for most cpus and etc this more than likely will happen.
you sure cannot out run death...but sure as hell you can make that bastard work for it!

Kidd

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Re: Mineral discovery yields "semi-infinite" supply of rare-earths
« Reply #5 on: 17 April 2018, 06:28:36 »
that would be a very long run. REMs are essential to superconductor tech and all sorts of stuff which we are transitioning TOWARDS, and we've barely started really.

sadlerbw

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Re: Mineral discovery yields "semi-infinite" supply of rare-earths
« Reply #6 on: 17 April 2018, 16:28:32 »
RE's aren't particularly rare. It's more of a challenge to find them in concentrations where it is worth trying to filter them out. The 'supply' isn't really constrained. If prices rise enough, there are plenty of locations around the globe that would be economically viable for mining. In fact, when prices jumped several years ago, a number of newer mines were started and older ones re-opened. Then prices crashed again when the current major suppliers jacked up their production. That is as close to rule 4 as I care to get on this topic, but the reality of the RE market would allow blowing WAAAY past rule 4 territory without breaking a sweat.

So, leaving geopolitics aside, having a reasonably good concentration of those RE metals is a good start, but isn't anywhere close to determining if they are any cheaper to mine than existing sources. RE Mining requires LOTS of water and LOTS of Hydrochloric acid. Shipping those out to an island or generating them in place is no mean feat. Also, just mining the raw materials and shipping them to existing refiners is pretty darn expensive given how very little RE metals are in even the richest deposits. There is also the mix of metals available. There are two general categories of RE metals, Heavy and Light. I don't recall off the top of my head whether the ones mentioned are heavy or light. The heavy ones are significantly more profitable though. Lastly, RE mining creates some pretty nasty tailings and a butt-load of Cerium that you have to do something with. You need a decent amount of space for settling pools just to dry out all the muck you have created and then need to handle disposing of them in a manner that wont be described as an environmental disaster if someone else sees you do it!

I'm not trying to take all the wind out of your sails. It's entirely possible this really is a find that will change the industry. It's just that mineral concentration alone isn't enough to justify opening a new mine at the moment. There are other factors that generally make or break the decision no matter how awesome the ore is.

ANS Kamas P81

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Re: Mineral discovery yields "semi-infinite" supply of rare-earths
« Reply #7 on: 17 April 2018, 20:58:54 »
Always good things to consider, and why I posted.  Plenty to learn about.
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glitterboy2098

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Re: Mineral discovery yields "semi-infinite" supply of rare-earths
« Reply #8 on: 17 April 2018, 22:52:01 »
that would be a very long run. REMs are essential to superconductor tech and all sorts of stuff which we are transitioning TOWARDS, and we've barely started really.
yep. and they've become important to various metamaterials and such, so if anything our need for them is only going to increase, rather than decrease. especially since the main new computing technology that looks to be most promising is Spintronics.. which requires the processors to be made almost entirely from rare earth materials.