A Stitch In Time (AU)

[drakensis]

Oh yes, like letting foren troops on your land isnt rolling over, or letting them limit how big of things u can build or how many soldiers u can have. oh yea, suurrreee that isnt rolling over

It's called 'being defeated'. Perhaps you missed the fact that the Star League is fragmenting and the Terran Hegemony just got kicked vigorously in the groin? In canon even the Taurian Concordat surrendered when the SLDF had ships in orbit over their capital.

What would the Terrans even be fighting to the bitter end to accomplish?
The preservation of the Star League which is already doomed?
The independence of the Terran Hegemony, which the Periphery States aren't even trying to take away?
He's got foreign troops on his soil and he doesn't have the force to remove them. It's just not happening. Half the Star League's army and 70-80% of it's navy has been destroyed. Ian is realist enough to see that and has the moral courage not to throw lives away in the attempt. Instead he puts himself at personal risk to try negotiation for what might be feasible: to end it by negotiation.

Raising up a guerilla resistance would force the Taurians, Canopians and so forth to commit a major occupation force might sound great... except he knows about Sian. In case it's not been clear enough, that incident in the 31st century had a coalition occupy Sian's orbitals and when the Capellans continued to resist they decided not to expend time, lives and resources to an occupation: they went to Base Delta Zero. Ian has no reason to think that they would not do the same to Terra. And he's right.

As for fleet limitations, while he himself says that the limitation proposed is not acceptable it's hardly without historical precendent. Look up the Washington Treaty. That was agreed to by victorious powers. Or look at the Treaty of Versailles after WWI where the Allies imposed vastly heavier restrictions on Germany when it surrendered.

What do you think they should have done? Had Nicholas Cameron screaming defiance at the sky, demanding to be nuked? That the Hegemony be burned to ashes and those ashes salted so that no one occupied those world again for hundreds of years? Because there's not one thing that could have stopped the Taurians doing that if they wanted. The entire rest of the Periphery could not stop that if Jack Calderon ordered it and he's the man who would be most inclined do so. The Taurians are feared for good reason.

[Zureal]

again, just cuz u lose ur capitol? bs , also, everyone was following the ares conventions at this point, so he dosent have to worry about being glassed.

[drakensis]

Zureal: because he lost his capital, because the last really good mobile force he has got gutted over Canopus, because his allies are peeling away from him... yes, he makes peace. Because if he doesn't, it gets _worse_.

If you would keep fighting at this point, rather than cutting your losses, heaven help anyone who looks to you for leadership.

[snakespinner]

I would have surrendered.
Excellent story.

[Korzon77]

again, just cuz u lose ur capitol? bs , also, everyone was following the ares conventions at this point, so he dosent have to worry about being glassed.

The entire point ofhte Ares conventions was to minimize the destruction of war-- but they worked because people were willing to give up when the cause became lost-- when one side refused, the conventions went out the window.

Think of the Ares convention as putting rules on war-- and part of those rules were unwritten, and among the big ones were the other side doens't nuke your city-- and you *surrender* your city when the battle is lost. 

And at this point the Star League was dead-- again remember that Cameron wasn't a puppy killer who created the SL so he could butcher the periphery-- he was a flawed individual who considered it a solution to the age of war. 

But trying to reforge it, even presuming the Hegonomy could have, would have meant a war very close to the 1st succession war in terms of casualties and a "peace" that would have been the peace of the grave.

Instead, he surrenders, with terms mind you that leave the hegonomy a power and leave most of its industrial might intact, which means that the possibility exists of some form of union  using other methods-- perhaps a economic union.

This wasn't a total defeat it was a defeat on one point, by an enemy that was fighting a war with strictly  limited goals-- and continued resistance would have only lead to more death and a widenig of those goals without any commensurate benefits.

[Zureal]

IM NOT arguing about how the SL got defeated, that part i accept and like and can understand fully. its how he SURRENDERED the hegemony just like that. its not like they landed a giant force to take over terra, no, it was a raid, yes they had a huge naval force there but they were fallowing the ares convintions, so they might have had space superiority but they would of never been able to hold the ground, and thats ware i call BS, so unless they wanted to throw the conventions out the window they would have not gotten far.

[drakensis]

Zureal: you are entitled to believe that fighting on when your war goals have been rendered impossible, when your orbitals are in the grip of a hostile fleet that you have no chance whatsoever of driving off, leaving you not only at their mercy but also the mercy of all your neighbours (at least two of whom do not have any) is a good idea. There have certainly been historical leaders who would rather that their nation burn than that they surrender. I won't list them since I'm not sure I could do so without sounding unnecessarily insulting towards you but most of those nations no longer exist.

Ian Cameron, on the other hand, is entitled to believe that having sworn to protect the people of the Terran Hegemony that he has an obligation not to get them all killed in a futile attempt to assuage his pride (because that's all he would manage).

Bear in mind that under the 'limited warfare' paradigm of the Battletech universe most battles and wars are not fought to the point of extinction: once one side is disadvantaged they will negotiate a surrender and withdraw their forces to have them intact for the next battle or next war.

[Korzon77]

IM NOT arguing about how the SL got defeated, that part i accept and like and can understand fully. its how he SURRENDERED the hegemony just like that. its not like they landed a giant force to take over terra, no, it was a raid, yes they had a huge naval force there but they were fallowing the ares convintions, so they might have had space superiority but they would of never been able to hold the ground, and thats ware i call BS, so unless they wanted to throw the conventions out the window they would have not gotten far.

 They were following the Ares conventions "Then".  However, if the Terran Hegemony says, "no, we're not going to surrender, and you just sit there until we build mechs that can attack you."  They would likely review their options.  Nations have tried that in the real history-- for example by locating military units close to prhobited targets and in general the other side, shrugs and figures that history will say bad things about them-- after they have won the war.

And to do this, the HAF would have to agree to eseentially use their own civilians for cover-- to gather forces rendered immune to assault because the attackers were unwilling to risk injury to the civilians that the *HAF* supposedly was protecting-- which might lead to issues with his own people. I know that if the US was fighting a war and parked a tank at my kids school, because they *knew* that the enemy wouldn't target it for fear or killing my kids, I might be more sympathetic to the "enemy" than I would my own soldiers. This I'd note actually happened during the Iraqi invasion and while US forces *tried* to avoid civiilan casualties, when they occured it was the fault of the Iraqi armed forces not our own forces and at no point was a commander disciplined for that.

And so maybe they don't-- fine, they just interdict supplies and bomb factories-- and tell the DC, Davions, Lyrans and anyone else-- "It's open season on Hegemony worlds, boys!"  Cameron an sit on his world as long as he wants, watching the entire state it depends on being eaten alive.

Surrender is good-- very often its the bst option because it recognizes that the only thing kicking and screaming will do, is increase damag to your own people.

Or to put it differently-- Imperial Japan and the Third Reich fought to the bitter end-- FRance surrendered when the strategic situation became hopeless.  Of the three nations, which ones lost more civilians in the Second World War?

[Zureal]

u know, for all your arguments against me, lets see... the Taurian Concordat is still there, as is the Outworlds Alliance, Magistracy of Canopus, and even the Rim Worlds survived, though the Rim did die later on in a unrilated event :P and yea, i think the hogomoney would of done better than eather of those 3

[Korzon77]

You might want to take a look at the outcome of the reunification war, which included millions dead, the imposition of a long-term occupation, and of course the effective destruction of the periphery as an independent economic entity. 

Of course, the MOC came out of it better than either of the other two-- because they of course surrendered rather than fighting to the bitter end.

[drakensis]

u know, for all your arguments against me, lets see... the Taurian Concordat is still there, as is the Outworlds Alliance, Magistracy of Canopus, and even the Rim Worlds survived, though the Rim did die later on in a unrilated event :P and yea, i think the hogomoney would of done better than eather of those 3

Way to undermine your own point. All four of them did surrender when their capital world was invaded, if not before.
Now they did this, in each case, after an extended campaign on other worlds that had exhausted their military strength. The SLDF/HAF has gone through similar experiences but rather than years of grinding war with slow and draining attrition, they've faced shattering several shattering defeats that left large fractions of their forces simply gone. The initial time-jump and the Battle of Estuan collectively smashed around a third of the entire SLDF and much of what was left was isolated and overrun when the Federated Suns defected.

[Cannonshop]

Not to mention the small matter of that defection-instead of a Unification War that would drain the other SL states' treasuries and leave the TH's industrial and economic might untouched, a continuation war would have gutted the Hegemony between two crushing blocks-one on the inside, and multiple on the outside.  Cameron's strategy in inciting the war was done the minute that the feddies rolled over-the Hegemony would NOT be pre-eminent in a Star League assuming they could win a contunuation conflict under a condition where the Lyrans are wracked in civil war, the Combine is traumatized, and the FWL is considering alternative options.

The double loss at Canopus (the cream of SL forces being defeated there) and the strike and occupation of the Sol Star system (effectively gutting the TH's industrial base in a stroke), along with the decapitation move of the invaders taking Cameron's capital (Unity City) broke the chance of such a war leading to an SLDF "Victory" in both the field, and the floors of diplomacy.

Cameron's great mistake, was recognizing the Liao coup-that was where he really lost the war, because that was where the TH's leading role in the Star League lost its legitimacy.

[DOC_Agren]

Just got done reading this, a bit behind..   8)

interesting take, Understand why the TH surrendered but I agree that the are screwed now, and while the TC made the offer to protect them, the distance is to far.

Would have loved to see how this plays out and how the realms move forward now

[biff]

If a thread is dead for more than a couple of weeks, then the only person who should post something new is the author. Otherwise, people like me will think that the author has updated the story and are then disappointed when it's just a noob posting on a dead thread.

Just for future reference.