I’m interested in seeing the relationship between the Arc-Royals and Jiyi’s Falcons. Obviously the ARDC is on a murder Malvina/ Mongols rampage… but Jiyi (and also by extent the AML) are DEFINITELY not Malvina. So how they go up against each other and how they interact with the former Falcons will be really interesting.
If I had to guess, the ARLC and the Sudeten Falcons can likely come to an agreement regarding the Lyrans, same as with the Tamar Pact and the Sudeten Falcons. Allying with the Tamar Pact against Clan Hells Horses and the Lyrans is a no-brainer deal for the Tamar Pact. While the AML and Tamar Pact have reasons to want Sudeten, the AML is unlikely to make the first move and instead want to wait for the Tamar Pact to attack.
The Tamar Pact, ARLC and JFFZ are unlikely bedfellows, but they all have things the other wants. The ARLC wants allies against the Lyrans and the Vesper Marches and Tamar Pact are natural choices, and a non-aggression pact with both of the Jade Falcon remnants where they define their borders and agree to stay out of ARLC space
could be in the cards. The Tamar Pact needs heavy equipment and allies, something both the ARLC and JFFZ can provide. The JFFZ just needs to stay alive for the next half decade in order to build its strength. Trading planets for survival is a valid strategy. I'm not saying this would be a lasting coalition, but it could last a decade or two. The JFFZ, if Jiyi can play his cards right, can swallow up plenty of bordering systems yet unclaimed and has already started doing so. Jiyi needs warriors - Sudeten has 3 billion people on it. If he leans hard into freeborn training, he can likely find and get another full cluster of mechwarriors within about 4 years. I wouldn't be shocked either if Jiyi bends the rules on the distinction between 'laborer' and 'infantry warrior'. A reservist militia program that grants provisional warrior status to those who sign up and are called to serve in the defense of Sudeten could do a lot for at least providing infantry and vehicle crews.
The Hinterlands becoming the sphere's equivilant of Ex-Yugoslavia mixed with post-Roman Western Europe isn't too out of the question either.