Author Topic: The Free Worlds League: Wolf Empire Reunion Tour  (Read 77845 times)

Pat Payne

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Re: The Free Worlds League: Wolf Empire Reunion Tour
« Reply #660 on: 23 January 2025, 01:04:05 »
What's everyone's predictions for Duchy of Andurien in the ilClan era? Will they get essentially "absorbed" by the CC/MoC alliance or will they realize their mistake and back out? I honestly hope that Ari Humphreys is deposed, or better yet, DoA is brought to heal after the Wolf menace is taking care of by a united Marik hammer.

Given that it looks like Danai may be the new Chancellor after Daoshen potentially got himself turned into raspberry jam, and Ari is married to her sister/mother/aunt (at least relatives' birthdays are a breeze, amiright?) Ilsa, the ties for Andurien's ruling class may actually be stronger with the Confederation and Magistracy, to the point where it's quite posssible that Danai could inherit all three realms, forging them into a unified whole. Now whether any of the three would want this is an open question, particularly trying to graft the famously open and freewheeling society that is the Magistracy onto the even more famously stratified authoritarian nightmare that is the Confederation. Add to that the fact that Andurien has tried to be quit of the FWL for the last forever, would they want to trade one overlord for another? If Ari does harbor any plans of handing over Andurien to his stepdaughter, he may want to start the PR blitz yesterday. I don't think he had any previous marriages or children, so Danai may be it.

Personally, if that were to happen (and I didn't see any indication in either Empire Alone or the cursory browse I did of IKEO that the writers are going in that direction), Andurien would probably have a meltdown of epic proportions as they have past history with Capellan conquest way back when. I'd predict a civil war that would likely drag in the Confederation, who would be eager to make sure the FWL doesn't capitalize on the situation and finally chuck the pain-in-the-ass-for-the-last-few-centuries Humphries family on the ash heap of history and install someone more Halas-Hughes-Marik-friendly in their place. Especially since right now Andurien's current borders have the beginning of a salient into Capellan space.

Metallgewitter

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Re: The Free Worlds League: Wolf Empire Reunion Tour
« Reply #661 on: 23 January 2025, 06:15:24 »
Don't forget that Andurien isn't the friendly Capellan neighbour anymore. This might turn more into a Magistracy-Andurien Union then a triple union. Daoshen told his sister what he expects of her (rule the Magistarcy) but Danai was selected as future leader for the Confederation. Of course the ultimate meltdown would be the loss of the Canopian heir on Alphard should that war go south.
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Re: The Free Worlds League: Wolf Empire Reunion Tour
« Reply #662 on: 23 January 2025, 07:41:41 »
Don't forget that Andurien isn't the friendly Capellan neighbour anymore.

The funny thing about this sudden heel turn with Canopus and Andurien vis a vis the CapCon is that it's very recent and very sudden. FM3145 describes the relationship between these three realms quite differently, established over the course of decades, and there hasn't been anything that we've been made privy to that would explain Andurien's sudden aggression and expansionism into Capellan space.
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Colt Ward

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Re: The Free Worlds League: Wolf Empire Reunion Tour
« Reply #663 on: 23 January 2025, 08:16:45 »
Sure, Isla has not been spurned at all . . .
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Re: The Free Worlds League: Wolf Empire Reunion Tour
« Reply #664 on: 23 January 2025, 11:14:25 »
Sure, Isla has not been spurned at all . . .

so you're saying she whispered into her husbands ear to punish those "evil , mean capellans"? And this time they won't strike back (unlike that time during the Victoria war)
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Re: The Free Worlds League: Wolf Empire Reunion Tour
« Reply #665 on: 23 January 2025, 11:37:44 »
Isla, by what we have been given has always believed she had Dashen wrapped and controlled him when she wanted something.

She gets ignored and suddenly Ari goes from ceding worlds to the Capellans for protection to taking worlds.  Allying the the MoC was always about offsetting his other troubling neighbors.
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Re: The Free Worlds League: Wolf Empire Reunion Tour
« Reply #666 on: 23 January 2025, 13:06:41 »
Except Andurien's heel turn against the CapCon occurred before Ilsa's fateful meeting with Daoshen.
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Re: The Free Worlds League: Wolf Empire Reunion Tour
« Reply #667 on: 23 January 2025, 13:20:33 »
Andurien turned against their longtime allies for basically no reason?

I'm shocked.  Shocked I tell you.
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Re: The Free Worlds League: Wolf Empire Reunion Tour
« Reply #668 on: 23 January 2025, 13:20:53 »
Its odd timing though.

Ilsa arrives and departs on Dec 30th 3151 to discuss the Joppa situation.
6th of January is listed as when Duke Humphreys attacks the CapCon.

Not only that, but back in July 3151, there was a coup on Scarborough, and the majority of the population voted to return to Andurien, so Humphrey took control of the world.

So maybe Ilsa doesn't have everyone wrapped up in a little bow.

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Re: The Free Worlds League: Wolf Empire Reunion Tour
« Reply #669 on: 23 January 2025, 13:41:48 »
Andurien turned against their longtime allies for basically no reason?

I'm shocked.  Shocked I tell you.

What doesn't make sense to me as a (distant) observer is what Andurien hopes to accomplish.  They can't take on the CCAF in the long run.  They can't capture much territory, if any.  Seems like a lose lose?

Does the invasion weaken the balance of power between the Magistracy and CapCon somehow?  What am I missing here?

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Re: The Free Worlds League: Wolf Empire Reunion Tour
« Reply #670 on: 23 January 2025, 13:50:46 »
They're betting that the CapCon's continued military attention focused toward Terra will prevent reprisal for long enough that they can secure their holdings and make taking them back too much trouble.  Which it currently almost certainly is, and with the way the Terran front is going may be a hot minute.

EDIT: Humphries accidentally picked the best possible time to make what would be a life-ending mistake in any other circumstance.  Could still go that way, even.
« Last Edit: 23 January 2025, 13:52:18 by Scotty »
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Colt Ward

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Re: The Free Worlds League: Wolf Empire Reunion Tour
« Reply #671 on: 23 January 2025, 13:55:01 »
Its odd timing though.

Ilsa arrives and departs on Dec 30th 3151 to discuss the Joppa situation.
6th of January is listed as when Duke Humphreys attacks the CapCon.

Not only that, but back in July 3151, there was a coup on Scarborough, and the majority of the population voted to return to Andurien, so Humphrey took control of the world.

So maybe Ilsa doesn't have everyone wrapped up in a little bow.

I thought I had the timing right.  But Lisa also had to follow Daoshen IIRC, she had gone to Sian then had to move to Liao.

Scarborough was a sign Daoshen was not paying attention and Ari moved from that demonstration to adventurism.  He could have carved his way through the Sian Commonality- especially if he thought Canopian formations were going to help- which would have crippled the bulk of the CCAF light-years away waiting outside the Republic's gate.
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Re: The Free Worlds League: Wolf Empire Reunion Tour
« Reply #672 on: 23 January 2025, 14:04:29 »
Does Andurien have some ridiculously outsized military force right now?  Because a regional power taking worlds from the CapCon is just not going to end well.  Even if it is a different Humphries or Liao in power after the events of IKEO, this just sounds one sided in the long run.

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Re: The Free Worlds League: Wolf Empire Reunion Tour
« Reply #673 on: 23 January 2025, 14:45:56 »
Things are unsettled in the Sphere right now, and you don't move up from "regional power" to "major power" without taking a few risks and punching a major power in the nose to prove your mettle. Andurien is as strong as they've been in a long time, and if this gamble works out for them they get a bunch of territory and the prestige of being the ones who knocked the Capellans from their lofty perch. Whether the gambling odds are favorable or were well calculated before the die was cast... thats another matter altogether.

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Re: The Free Worlds League: Wolf Empire Reunion Tour
« Reply #674 on: 23 January 2025, 15:00:29 »
Here is how it stands . . .

The majority of the CCAF is clustered in former RotS space.

What forces were in the area are tied down, shifting to the RAF front, or Daoshen countermanded movement orders.

The CCAF's logistics are set up to flow everything to the RAF front.  Shifting State operated JS and DS towards the active front has been going on for the 2 decades of Daoshen's offensive.  We got a sidebar about the lucrative JS rates that keep climbing b/c State JS are all out of the region.


Daoshen was worried about everyone else.  He had his best sitting waiting to get to Terra.  They were sent past Terra to keep it isolated.  To block the Dracs, he sent a regiment or four raiding and occupying worlds they took from the Republic, even up to Dieton.  His last major concern is the FedSuns, he knows Julian has New Avalon back and does not want to give another opening like when Julian went for New Syrtis.  His sister is married to Ari, she is adept at manipulation and will keep him in line . . .


 . . . Ari's forces are two jumps from Sian.  The Sian Commonality which is producing much of the logistical support for the majority of CCAF troops that are many more jumps from Sian.

Hard to move the troops back when the materials they need to keep their forces effective can easily be cut.
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Re: The Free Worlds League: Wolf Empire Reunion Tour
« Reply #675 on: 23 January 2025, 15:06:23 »
The whole thing just feels so contrived and arbitrary, honestly. The jarring shift in narrative direction since FM3145's publication can really be felt here. I feel like TPTB could've done a better job of laying the groundwork for Andurien turning on its strongest ally.
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Colt Ward

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Re: The Free Worlds League: Wolf Empire Reunion Tour
« Reply #676 on: 23 January 2025, 15:54:16 »
Lol, I would agree with that . . . Sort of like those MMO strategy games from years ago where it was last man standing and so people would drop alliances for sneak attacks if you left your heartland open.

The ONLY acrimony we ever got is when Ari had to pay off Daoshen to end the false flag war with Oriented.

But things are also to the point IF Ari was ever going to strike at the CapCon, he would never get a better opening.
« Last Edit: 23 January 2025, 15:56:36 by Colt Ward »
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Re: The Free Worlds League: Wolf Empire Reunion Tour
« Reply #677 on: 24 January 2025, 09:35:58 »
Don't forget that Andurien isn't the friendly Capellan neighbour anymore. This might turn more into a Magistracy-Andurien Union then a triple union. Daoshen told his sister what he expects of her (rule the Magistarcy) but Danai was selected as future leader for the Confederation. Of course the ultimate meltdown would be the loss of the Canopian heir on Alphard should that war go south.

I take it back what I said about Andurien earlier about being sellout Liao lapdogs. Gotta love them for blindly attacking the Confederation at every chance! One day they will take Betelgeuse!
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Re: The Free Worlds League: Wolf Empire Reunion Tour
« Reply #678 on: 25 January 2025, 14:48:11 »
I feel like TPTB could've done a better job of laying the groundwork for Andurien turning on its strongest ally.

OTOH, it is Andurien we're talking about. For them, it's "rebellion o'clock" somewhere.

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Re: The Free Worlds League: Wolf Empire Reunion Tour
« Reply #679 on: 26 January 2025, 14:27:01 »
The Andurien change face does not make sense, given the Duke marrying Centrella-Liao.  Unless there story where Duke was unseated or he's facing rebellion within his ranks (which doesn't strikes me).
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Re: The Free Worlds League: Wolf Empire Reunion Tour
« Reply #680 on: 26 January 2025, 16:09:53 »
Folks, remember that the Andurian national bird is the Spotted Backstab. They can't help it.
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Re: The Free Worlds League: Wolf Empire Reunion Tour
« Reply #681 on: 26 January 2025, 21:38:48 »
The Andurien change face does not make sense, given the Duke marrying Centrella-Liao.  Unless there story where Duke was unseated or he's facing rebellion within his ranks (which doesn't strikes me).

It secured one of his flanks, and it's perfect timing since the Liao-Canopian alliance is kind of breaking down. I foresee it completely shattering when Danai's sister-mom dies and a Centrella with no relation to the Liaos takes over.

Andurien was always going to want those worlds back they lost in the 3090s to Liao. Had Daoshen managed his relations with Canopus better, it probably wouldn't have happened. But he kept seeing the MoC as a subject state, not an ally. It's going to cost his state even more in the future.
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Re: The Free Worlds League: Wolf Empire Reunion Tour
« Reply #682 on: 26 January 2025, 23:50:55 »
I'd hate to see Canopus completely break with the Capellans. FM3145 makes it pretty clear that the two realms aren't just militarily allied, but culturally allied as well. And Danai herself, despite being Daoshen's heir apparent, was raised primarily as a Canopian by Erde; she should have some cachet with the Canopians.
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Re: The Free Worlds League: Wolf Empire Reunion Tour
« Reply #683 on: 27 January 2025, 10:11:44 »
She might but it does not seem the average Canopian does as seen by Isolde's support.

A replay of the Steiner raised Victor being shunned by the Steiner realm.
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Re: The Free Worlds League: Wolf Empire Reunion Tour
« Reply #684 on: 27 January 2025, 12:14:25 »
Remember, this game is BattleTech, not PeaceTech.  They need reasons to keep neighboring factions at each other's throats to drive the wars we play out on the tabletop.
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Re: The Free Worlds League: Wolf Empire Reunion Tour
« Reply #685 on: 27 January 2025, 12:37:57 »
Also I think that the Canopians are against Daoshen and the Capellans. Danai would be seen as an improvement to most and hopefully she would correct some of the problems cause by her father.

But right now the Capellans are a bit in the dark and all strung out. Where as in 3145 they looked to be top dog (along with the Combine) as of 3152 the FWL is SOLIDLY first among the great houses for overall ‘stability’. Yes they have issues but compared to everyone else ….

She might but it does not seem the average Canopian does as seen by Isolde's support.

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Definitely this

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Re: The Free Worlds League: Wolf Empire Reunion Tour
« Reply #686 on: 27 January 2025, 15:05:07 »
It seems to me that we (the audience) are still unsure of exactly how the Capellan/Canopian/Andurien relationship is going to pan out. Some of that I think is just the nature of being at this point in the story - I'm surprised that there were any MAF units at all fighting alongside the CCAF in IKEO given external commentary. But given the current nature of communication in-universe, maybe that's fine; the maneuvering of interstellar powers takes time to filter out to when the space internet is still down.

Remember, this game is BattleTech, not PeaceTech.  They need reasons to keep neighboring factions at each other's throats to drive the wars we play out on the tabletop.

Apologies, because it will seem like I'm picking on you, but I'm not - this is just spurred by a thought I had in the Calamity Kell thread. I think this is a good sentiment to remember, but it's too often used as a reason to justify stilted plots or stuff that doesn't make internal sense. In this instance, if the Canopians and Anduriens make a more formal union or not doesn't meaningfully stop it from being Battletech, any more than the Ghost Bears and FRR or the Snow Ravens and Outworlds combining does. They're both small powers. And heck, the FedCom era didn't turn into an era of peace, and those were arguably two of the greatest powers of the age.

Peace - or least, periodic gaps where the various factions build their strength, be it by absorption or treaty or alliance or whatever - is a requirement to have battles that have any kind of stakes.

Now, it's entirely possible that in this instance the Anduriens will gamble and lose or gamble and win, but I don't think one is going to lead more to the cessation of wars in the setting than anything else. I, personally, think it would be an interesting shakeup (implausible as I think it is) if the Canopians and Anduriens unite because together they're more of a serious threat to the League and Confederation. Plus who doesn't like a new map? I don't think it seems likely; there's no reason that Magistracy citizens are going to line up behind Ari Humphreys any more than Anduriens are going to line up behind an unrelated Centrella.

To an extreme end, why have any factions have any coherence at all? Surely there's more war if the Lyrans remain fragmented, if the Suns' marches all take up arms against each other, if St. Ives is possessed by the spirit of separatism again, if the League falls apart, etc. etc. etc. On the other end of supposed unification, even the vaunted age of the first Star League saw no end of fighting, even if we just look at the great houses and leave aside the horrors of the so-called Reunification War.
« Last Edit: 27 January 2025, 15:14:59 by Longstrider »

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Re: The Free Worlds League: Wolf Empire Reunion Tour
« Reply #687 on: 27 January 2025, 19:19:22 »
It seems to me that we (the audience) are still unsure of exactly how the Capellan/Canopian/Andurien relationship is going to pan out.

I think it’s likely that at some point the Capellans will overreach and we’ll get slapped down yet again.  :cheesy:

Can see this becoming a wholly Canopian/Andurien affair while the Confederation goes back to just looking after what it has.
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Re: The Free Worlds League: Wolf Empire Reunion Tour
« Reply #688 on: 27 January 2025, 20:34:12 »
I'd hate to see Canopus completely break with the Capellans. FM3145 makes it pretty clear that the two realms aren't just militarily allied, but culturally allied as well. And Danai herself, despite being Daoshen's heir apparent, was raised primarily as a Canopian by Erde; she should have some cachet with the Canopians.

Plenty of countries with cultural similarities still break up over military or political realities. Maybe the Canopians have benefitted from their alliance with the Capellans, but the average Canopian doesn't feel that way.
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Re: The Free Worlds League: Wolf Empire Reunion Tour
« Reply #689 on: 27 January 2025, 20:39:18 »
Plenty of countries with cultural similarities still break up over military or political realities.

I'm well aware of that, thank you. I'm saying that I would see it as a shame to see the alliance break apart because of how close the two nations have grown. There is a clear disconnect between the narrative circa FM3145 and the narrative now, with quite a few about-faces, and this was one of the biggest examples that illustrates that.
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My Personal Units: Thuggee Warrior House Nagah (Capellan Confederation), 29th Blood Drinkers (Clan Blood Spirit), Nightmare Galaxy (Clan Hell's Horses), 1st Raven Rook Cluster (Raven Alliance)
Favorite Characters: Malvina Hazen • Kali Liao • Katherine Steiner-Davion • Anastasia Kerensky • Danai Liao-Centrella • Karianna Schmitt • Sterling McKenna • Tara Campbell • Katana Tormark
Favorite Factions: Capellan Confederation • Clan Blood Spirit • Clan Smoke Jaguar • Clan Hell's Horses • Raven Alliance • Escorpion Imperio • Rim Worlds Republic • Magistracy of Canopus
Favorite Units: The Golden Ordun • Wolf Hunters • 1st Horde Cluster • 1st Rasalhague Bears • Thuggee Warrior Houses • Hikage • Raptor Keshik • Kara's Scorchers • 1st Star Sentinels