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Not only is the Dragon in relatively good shape, some very combat hardened commands, combat hardened troops being transferred to training positions and command positions in the new Ashigaru Regiments, they also have numbers with the new Regiments.
They will also be in a defensive war against an invading Clan... again, which will increase their recruitment rates and desire to win any engagements.
Also there's no RotS trying to keep the peace or Black Dragons to use as an Honourable way to back out for either side.
The Dragon is going to go for broke and Yori has been planning for the Bears to jump the boarders, this is not going to go well for the Bears from the get go.
This war is unwinnable, will be lost because those in charge (of the faction) are well short sighted is the nicest way to say it, and because Alaric Senpi UWU had a toddlers tantrum over not being seen as the Wolfiest wolf that ever wolfed, hopefully iCEO will shed some light on his decision, And maybe with how bad the war goes will result in the RasDom leadership being ousted and all this blamed on Alaric and the Dominion goes all Anti-3rd League because of it and the Dominion will get a loss and most of the other fans will be happy that they're not some super untouchable faction, and then the Dominion can have its own win, for its own reasons, on its own merits and the Dominion can stop being some other factions Deus Ex Ursai.