Isn't that what this thread has become? Lots of people incredulous about the ROTS defeat on Terra. Yet it happened.
I don't think they will retcon it, but maybe short stories or shrapnel magazine articles will be used to broaden our understanding of the battle on terra.
To bring it back to the OP, my longshot hope is that the RAF flee to the periphery and help the Magistracy in their war against the Capelleans
What defining event was LEFT? Tukayyid was credible, even down to Aidan's Magic Small Laser, because it was structured out with two forces acting
in character (teh Clans, as a whole or individually, and comguards acting like an army would really act).
most of the other conflicts in the setting? same thing. Galtor works, most of the major battles in the Civil war and Jihad? work. The ones we have scenarios for could go either way and hing on the mix of luck and skill, not heavy-handed intervention by the writer.
If you lay out and play out the battles in HoTW, you need to cripple the living shit out of the Republic forces to get anything remotely resembling the outcome, and by that, I mean dumping everyone's stats on the Republic side to around 7/8, while pumping the Clan units to 1/2 or 0/0.
or play it single-blind wehre the Republic player has to be making hs moves blindfolded while the Wolf player knows where everything is and what moves he'll make ahead of time...
and has all the initiative rolls slotted to give him a 12 pip advantage.
but, this is the only 'defining conflict' a Republic player can actually have for their faction in terms of product support, fiction, and sourcebook material.
how so? because it
invalidates or retcons every.single.one. of the Republic's previous characerizations.They ahve to become incompetent, disorganized and demoralized in ways that the lead up doesn't allow, in order to make those outcomes happen the way they were written.
Or, everyone else (and I mean EVERYONE) has to be so utterly incompetent that sub-normal intellects in scrap gear can beat them one-handed.
There was no strategy in Stone's Strategy, and his commanders would have to have forgotten basic leadership development, training, and operations for the outcome to work as-written.
this creates a 'no point' situation.
as in, there's no point in discussing the positive traits because those were stripped off by a vindictive god.