I strongly suggest you read the evidence before you start disputing it.
The header on the report is from Janella Lakewood who is the head of RAF intel operations outside the wall (while operating from inside the Wall itself). She has had access to RAF intel at the highest level, including Ghost Knight ops.
It explicitly mentions the discovery of MHAF depots with Capellan weapons in them. It also describes an 'elaborate ruse' to cover the source, with a verifiable paper trail leading back to the Capellan Confederation. It describes the evidence linking the weapons to the Confederation as "solid" and has been cross-referenced by RAF agents and verified. And that's before it even gets to the Mask memo.
Shattered Fortress pg 37 explicitly names the Capellans as the source. It also makes it abundantly clear that this is not something the Republic was aware of at all at the highest levels. Not only does it rule out the Republic as the source of the weapons, but it rules out any other nation as being the source as well. And once again, there is no evidence even suggesting that anyone other then the Capellans are the source.
Finally, I need to bring up Double Blind which you have used as the basis of your argument as it was a similar situation involving similar players. However, in that case, the duplicity was confirmed by both novel and sourcebook fiction. Conversely, in this case, there is no fiction at all to even suggest that there is such duplicity going on.
