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Author Topic: The original plan for Operation SILVER SHIELD succeeds?  (Read 2730 times)

Croix129

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The original plan for Operation SILVER SHIELD succeeds?
« on: 07 August 2022, 13:50:17 »
So this is a topic I've recently became interested in and would love to here opinions on. Operation SILVER SHIELD was Jerome Blake's plan to secure Comstar's neutrality, secure the HPG network, establish the C-bill as a common currency and to establish control of as much of the Terran Hegemony as possible. In all but the last Blake's 2787 Inner Sphere tour was wildly successful, but by the time he returned to Terra in early 2888 the First succession war was beginning and he was forced to revise the military portion of the Operation. Instead of sizing multiple worlds, Comstar instead captured the Terran system and stripped the surrounding worlds of all useful material and resources ahead of the Successor states conquest of the Hegemony.

Now my question is this; lets say Blake's tour starts a few months earlier and he's able to return to Terra before the first war starts. With the extra months before the war starts, Comstar is able to size more of the Hegemony worlds than in the original TL. IDK how many exactly, but lets say most or all of the worlds in the Alliance core province (the worlds within one FTL jump of Terra) are secured, so upward of 21 systems. Or at least the most important of these worlds. Now ALSO assuming that the Successor states accept this (they accepted the loss of Terra, but IDK if they'd still shrug over 10 to 21 systems), how does Comstar being less of Vatican City and more of the Papal states affect the history of the Inner Sphere?

I know that Comstar was pretty hands off in governing Terra during the succession wars, but such a system couldn't work governing an actual interstellar state, so would we see Comstar officials serving as governors and administrators (like the Clergy served as the officials for the Papal states)? Would we instead see a rump Terran Hegemony emerge, with perhaps the Primus serving as Director-General (ie Comstar and the TH as separate entities united by the leader)? Or could we seven see the two polities completely separate, with a surviving non-royal Cameron at the helm (perhaps the Camaron-Windsors whose decedent Chris Windsor-Cameron served as Preisdent of the Blakist-collaberation Terran Congress government)? Finally, would this necessitate an earlier formation and emergence of the Comguards? PS, is there any hint in canon as to what Blake's plan was if he had been able to seize more worlds?

Would love to here some opinions on this scenario/idea!

mikecj

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Re: The original plan for Operation SILVER SHIELD succeeds?
« Reply #1 on: 07 August 2022, 14:18:54 »
Tag'd.  Interesting idea.
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Takiro

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Re: The original plan for Operation SILVER SHIELD succeeds?
« Reply #2 on: 07 August 2022, 15:14:29 »
Tough, as part of Silver Shield you are knocking off what is left of the Hegemony and establishing the ComStar Protectorate. What few worlds remain free of the Houses are a mess and let's face it, BattleTech is all about the Mechs baby and the pre-ComGuards just ain't that big. You'd have to augment your existing forces which is doable but puts Blake up against Hayes as the most powerful person in ComStar as the enhanced military would have more say IMO. That could change ComStar itself in the years to come as Schwepps, not Toyama, likely rises to power afterwards. So, you need what is left of the SLDF under Hayes to seize what you could and then drop a small interdiction over the Protectorate insuring your control before anyone else can object. Far tricker than just holding one star system and the what if there is could a House like Davion go for the gold (Earth) while your out establishing this Protectorate??

Croix129

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Re: The original plan for Operation SILVER SHIELD succeeds?
« Reply #3 on: 07 August 2022, 16:54:28 »
Tough, as part of Silver Shield you are knocking off what is left of the Hegemony and establishing the ComStar Protectorate. What few worlds remain free of the Houses are a mess and let's face it, BattleTech is all about the Mechs baby and the pre-ComGuards just ain't that big. You'd have to augment your existing forces which is doable but puts Blake up against Hayes as the most powerful person in ComStar as the enhanced military would have more say IMO. That could change ComStar itself in the years to come as Schwepps, not Toyama, likely rises to power afterwards. So, you need what is left of the SLDF under Hayes to seize what you could and then drop a small interdiction over the Protectorate insuring your control before anyone else can object. Far tricker than just holding one star system and the what if there is could a House like Davion go for the gold (Earth) while your out establishing this Protectorate??

So basically what your saying is that, paradoxically, if Blake is successful in Silver shield he'll lose in transforming Comstar into a religious organization (assuming one accepts the retcon that it was his idea and not Toyama)? That's a very interesting possibility.Either that or push Hayes out of power shortly after Silver Shield, though again that could blow up in Blake's face. However, I don't really agree with you on the part that an interdiction over the Alliance core would be much trickier. Clearly Blake believed (and was probably backed up by Hayes or someone with military experience) that the SLDF troops he had were sufficient to seize Terra and the surrounding systems, which seemed to lack any kind of House garrison (Terra, for example, only had a company of House Davion troops in 2787), so fighting-wise it shouldn't be that hard. Moreover, Comstar could either interdict all Hegemony HPGs or, nuclear option, an Inner sphere wide blackout to ensure operational secrecy. The later would be very heavy-handed, but the Houses either have to accept it or tear up the Communications protocol and risk the total destruction of the HPG network.

You know, its a real shame that we never got any kind of details over what the canon plan was for Silver shield.

five_corparty

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Re: The original plan for Operation SILVER SHIELD succeeds?
« Reply #4 on: 07 August 2022, 21:39:45 »
Going along with the above post, I also feel that the Houses would never fully trust that rump state as fully "neutral." Even if, SOMEHOW, Comstar managed to STAY neutral (I agree the religiousness would probably be a bit more tamed down in favor of actually building a Comguards in order to hold the line) I feel like at least one house would "accidently" or intentionally start chewing down the protectorate.

I would also add in, I don't think ROM going around and killing people would be a thing in the 1/2SW to the extant it was.

All that said, I really could see, by the time -we- know the 3SW kicks off, it's actually only the 2SW as the houses (with tech back on the upswing) push for terra, kicking off the next war and invading terra centuries before Alric shows up!

just my thoughts

glitterboy2098

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Re: The original plan for Operation SILVER SHIELD succeeds?
« Reply #5 on: 07 August 2022, 22:21:38 »
i'd imagine that had they managed to hold onto any of the worlds around terra, Comstar would end up having to build the Comguard immediately rather than being able to avoid having a public military force for nearly three centuries. their larger holdings would also probably make it harder for them to to pull off things like Silver Shroud to supress technological development, since comstar would have higher degree of recognition as a power.

Tyler Jorgensson

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Re: The original plan for Operation SILVER SHIELD succeeds?
« Reply #6 on: 08 August 2022, 02:59:55 »
Also much harder to do because they had fewer resources than the SLDF and now five surrounding Houses with hundreds of mech regiments and dozens of warships surrounding them and probably hostile. Meanwhile they have an effective fighting force (battle-hardened) but very few Warships. Perhaps less defections and potentially a larger army, but with more territory to cover. The religious conversion is unlikely to occur based on the larger scale… so he’d have to turn it into a new Terran Hegemony. Then he’ll lose out on the communications monopoly (most likely) unless he can really convince the five other states that this is for the best. He’d also have to pledge neutrality across the board unless attacked first and fight only a defensive war, which would be a harder sell. Not to mention several states would still attempt it regardless and soon someone would have steamrolled him.

Metallgewitter

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Re: The original plan for Operation SILVER SHIELD succeeds?
« Reply #7 on: 08 August 2022, 03:38:28 »
First of all Comstar wasn't exactly "hands off" when governing Terra. That was maybe right after they had secured Terra and in turn it nearly shattered Comstar as Terrans wanted to rebuild their Hegemony. Comstar engineered a terror strike on Terra blamed those groups for it and then "muzzled" Terra. They also infiltrated several groups to steer them in the right direction (be thankful for Comstar's protection from the ravages of the Succession Wars).

The question would be how much territory silver Shield would take. A ring of worlds around Terra with a radius up till let's say New Earth? That might have been feasible as that would have been 5-6 worlds at most (not including the Sol system). The Com Guards had a troop strength of roughly 8 SLDF divisions centered around the Royal 151st Battlemech divison plus equipment for just that many again (and 12 Warships) so garrisons would have been readily available (and who knows how many old Warships were still left in former SLDF bone yards). The main problems would be that this would drain the ressources of Comstar as those planets weren't exactly booming worlds but rather war ravaged wastelands (especially Caph and Keid) and would require a lot of ressources to rebuild (not sure if Blake would have spend so much on them at first as he was rather clinical in his business decisions) Furthermorte none of those worlds had any defenses left as Kerensky had systematically dismantled the SDS systems. So should any House come knocking it might turn into a disaster especially since the Houses adopted a "nuke first ask questions later" policy (just look at New Dallas).

On the other hand Blake might have sweeten his deals with the Great Houses with access to some of Terra's vaunted technologies (selling by proxy through the New Earth Trading company as he later indeed proposed to the First Circuit) in exchange for respecting Comstar's territories perhaps turning the small Comstar protectorate into a Sphere wide Switzerland while also using NETC as some form of spy ring (like the Combine used Raimei for centuries before it broke or even better turn the company dropships into Pueblos)

An interesting scenario nontheless. Just like "How would the Inne Sphere look like if Hayes' Case Red would have been launched?"

Stormlion1

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Re: The original plan for Operation SILVER SHIELD succeeds?
« Reply #8 on: 08 August 2022, 08:23:15 »
Looking at the strength Kerensky left behind taking worlds around Terra was highly doable. Defending them is another matter as the Successor States would see Comstar as a actual state. One that would and could be conquered. The only defense would be to have a fully usable warship fleet and multiple Divisions of Battlemechs on each world to defend it.
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Natasha Kerensky

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Re: The original plan for Operation SILVER SHIELD succeeds?
« Reply #9 on: 08 August 2022, 12:25:09 »

Small states don’t last long within the Inner Sphere.  All the Chaos March statelets, St. Ives, Rasalhague, Tikonov, Andurien, etc. existed for only years or decades, not centuries and centuries like the Great Houses.  The ongoing Clan invasion/occupation aside, it seems to be a “rule” of the universe that the Inner Sphere reverts to five major states.  Over the long-term, the House Lords do not tolerate lesser powers within the borders of the Inner Sphere.

To protect a ComStar “papal state” over more than a few years or decades, ComStar would have to possess a serious threat that deters the House Lords from doing what they usually do with regard to smaller, less powerful states.  The only threat of this magnitude that ComStar holds is the threat of interdiction, i.e., attack our “papal state” and we’ll shut down the HPGs inside the borders of your Great House and set your nation back centuries.

ComStar did use short-term interdiction sorta successfully to manage the behavior of a House Lord or two in the 31st century.  But that was after ComStar had established itself for over a couple centuries as a trusted, neutral manager of interstellar communications.  It’s hard to see the same trick working when ComStar is still a newborn power in the 28th century.  If ComStar started interdicting the Houses left and right after Silver Shield, the House Lords would have realized much sooner that they could not trust ComStar to manage the HPGs and cut ComStar out from the get-go by taking over HPG management themselves or living without/finding ways around the HPGs (pony express, black boxes, etc.).

Besides destroying faith in ComStar as a trusted, neutral actor, the other problem with interdiction is that it undermines the main sources of ComStar’s power — the enormous revenue stream from the HPGs and the enormous stream of intelligence on the Great Houses from the HPGs.  When HPGs are under interdiction, ComStar loses out on the money and intel from those HPGs.  That’s not a sustainable situation for ComStar over the long-term, which means it’s not a credible threat beyond short-term.

In short, a ComStar “papal state” should be as subject to Great House rapacity as every other lesser Inner Sphere power has been, and the one factor that might change this situation in ComStar’s favor — HPG interdiction — wouldn’t work in ComStar’s favor during the timeframe in question (shortly after Silver Shield) or over the long-term.

Had Blake been greedy and tried to maintain a hold over more than just Terra, I think the likely outcome would have been the early demise of ComStar and the Great Houses turning Terra into another early Succession War battlefield.

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Croix129

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Re: The original plan for Operation SILVER SHIELD succeeds?
« Reply #10 on: 08 August 2022, 18:55:48 »
Going along with the above post, I also feel that the Houses would never fully trust that rump state as fully "neutral." Even if, SOMEHOW, Comstar managed to STAY neutral (I agree the religiousness would probably be a bit more tamed down in favor of actually building a Comguards in order to hold the line) I feel like at least one house would "accidently" or intentionally start chewing down the protectorate.

I would also add in, I don't think ROM going around and killing people would be a thing in the 1/2SW to the extant it was.

All that said, I really could see, by the time -we- know the 3SW kicks off, it's actually only the 2SW as the houses (with tech back on the upswing) push for terra, kicking off the next war and invading terra centuries before Alric shows up!

just my thoughts

OK I don't get why we're immediatly assuming that one (or more) Houses would violate Comstar's neutrality. I mean in the four succession wars no house made an attempt on Terra. Not even during the first war (and this was before the first interdiction in 2823). Plus there's the implied possibility that if any one house attacks Comstar, we'd see the other houses take advantage and attack that house (who'd likely fall under an interdict). To me, the implied threat Comstar wielded (total communications blackout and the use of Terra's industries) should be enough to keep the Houses in line.

I think that's harder to say. I mean why do you see ROM being weaker in this scenario?

That would involve the Houses somehow agreeing to a coordinated strike, and not immediately seeing the first house that attacks getting ganged up on by the other successor states.

Croix129

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Re: The original plan for Operation SILVER SHIELD succeeds?
« Reply #11 on: 08 August 2022, 19:02:21 »
i'd imagine that had they managed to hold onto any of the worlds around terra, Comstar would end up having to build the Comguard immediately rather than being able to avoid having a public military force for nearly three centuries. their larger holdings would also probably make it harder for them to to pull off things like Silver Shroud to supress technological development, since comstar would have higher degree of recognition as a power.

I can both agree and disagree here. I mean Comstar had no official army during the first three succession wars, and yet no one made an attempt on Terra. So why would they make an attempt on a Comstar protectorate? It wouldn't be an easy fight, it would at best mean no communications for a while (thus much harder to attack the Protectorate and maintain the other fronts against the other houses) and it assumes that whichever house can dedicate enough forces to the attack (ie not see the other houses move to seize swaths of territory).

As for Comguards itself, I'm going off the Papal state comparison here but couldn't we see a more ceremonial "public" force and a large hidden force (the actual Comguards)? As long as Comstar has the threat of interdiction and the implied threats of other states attacking the aggressor and of potentially selling war material to the other successor states, they should be OK.

Croix129

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Re: The original plan for Operation SILVER SHIELD succeeds?
« Reply #12 on: 08 August 2022, 19:14:12 »
(BTW sorry for the three posts in a row, I can't figure out how to do a multi-quote post)

So basically what I'm getting is if Comstar had tried to seize more than just Terra, it would be putting a large target on its back. At best it would be forced to devote large amounts of resource to build up the Comguards much earlier than OTL (and have potentially less resources to devote to Silver Shroud and other endeavors) and at worst would see one or more houses attack simultaneously, destroying Comstar as an organization. Darn, I was really hoping I had hit upon a scenario that would allow at least part of the Hegemony to survive.

Out of curiosity, can anyone think of a scenario that would allow Comstar a small World of Blake-style state-let early-ish in the Succession Wars? Something that would create a more "Papal-style" state?

2ndAcr

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Re: The original plan for Operation SILVER SHIELD succeeds?
« Reply #13 on: 08 August 2022, 21:31:19 »
 Well, Comstar did have plenty of forces left them. Your talking like 47 Regiments of Battlemechs when the SLDF departed. Along with the troops to use them, battle hardened veterans. Backed by a dozen warships, how damaged they are is another problem all together. Enough forces to make any single House think twice about moving against them. It would take too much effort and seriously weaken them against rival Houses.

 Figure they take 6 systems, leaving the 151st Royal Battlemech Division on Terra itself. They can still garrison each of those systems with a full Division and have 4 Independent Regiments left over for reaction forces. As long as Comstar stays defensive, their warships act as relief force, any House attacking their little state will find itself getting a beat down. Even some of the largest battles of the 1st SW rarely saw more than 2-3 Regiments of Battlemechs per House in a fight. That is not going to defeat a SLDF Battlemech Division staffed by hardened vets.

 Their main opposition will be the Combine and Marik, IMO anyway. Very little threat from the Fed Suns itself. Might even get some support from the Suns. Maybe some push back from the Lyrans and Capellans. But Combine and Marik for sure.

glitterboy2098

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Re: The original plan for Operation SILVER SHIELD succeeds?
« Reply #14 on: 08 August 2022, 22:58:24 »
not to mention they would have control of the most populated and most heavily industrialized systems in the inner sphere, so they could easily maintain that level of defense or even expanded it if needed.
though i'd imagine they'd seek treaties much like they did in the canon timeline, getting themselves recognized as a neutral entity. but unlike in the canon, where they only had , to to deal with one solar system, holding multiple ones would mean they'd need standing forces, to ensure the populace stays calm if nothing else.

Natasha Kerensky

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Re: The original plan for Operation SILVER SHIELD succeeds?
« Reply #15 on: 08 August 2022, 23:16:00 »
OK I don't get why we're immediatly assuming that one (or more) Houses would violate Comstar's neutrality. I mean in the four succession wars no house made an attempt on Terra.

ComStar neutrality and a ComStar land grab are somewhat in conflict with each other.  If ComStar targets World X that House Lord Y wants, then ComStar’s neutrality is going to be suspect by House Lord Y.  Now multiply that by two or more House Lords.

Silver Shield is also just very, very early in ComStar’s history.  It’s easy to assume that an old ComStar that has been neutral for decades or centuries will continue to be so.  It’s not so easy to assume that a young ComStar that has no track record will be neutral just because Blake says so.

Same goes for a ComStar that has no known, large military vice a ComStar that has amassed a large force of former SLDF divisions and regiments.

not to mention they would have control of the most populated and most heavily industrialized systems in the inner sphere, so they could easily maintain that level of defense or even expanded it if needed

If a House Lord wants a piece of a ComStar “papal state” — or wants to deny other House Lords those worlds — they’ll just break out the nukes, ortillery, and WMDs like they did everywhere else in the early Succession Wars.  And unless they’re actually from the worlds of the ComStar “papal state”, SLDF officers and enlisted will want to return to their homeworlds elsewhere, especially as the Succession Wars ramp up.  SLDF remnants could be a formidable speed bump, but it’s hard to see how they stop a determined House military, nevertheless more than one, especially over the long-term.
« Last Edit: 08 August 2022, 23:34:00 by Natasha Kerensky »
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glitterboy2098

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Re: The original plan for Operation SILVER SHIELD succeeds?
« Reply #16 on: 09 August 2022, 01:03:07 »
the same logic applies to canon with just the Terran system. more so in that comstar did not maintain any public military forces and very few paramilitary forces.

diplomacy got comstar a long way in canon, them having a few extra planets would not really effect that. especially since it makes it easier for them to play each side agaisnt the others, because any successor state that looks to be building up forces to take the terran state would not only be extremely obvious to all their neighbors, but also a serious threat to those neighbors since the industry of the terran state would give whoever took it a major advantage. a build up to take it would also leave that state vulnerable to attacks along the other fronts.

and the issue of SLDF loyalties was already one in play. the forces that didn't leave on the exodus were already fragmenting over loyalties to state, home, and unit. but since most of those units stayed because they were more loyal to the Star league than to Kerensky, had Blake given them an ideal to turn to in preserving at least some of the star league/terran hegemony, i think it would overcome a lot of the issues.

Metallgewitter

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Re: The original plan for Operation SILVER SHIELD succeeds?
« Reply #17 on: 09 August 2022, 01:30:27 »
On the noiter of "Comstar used interdictions only short term: Comstar issued a total blackout on the Lyran Commonwealth in the late 28th century (I think or it was the early 29th century) when the Archon tried to tax Comstar's business. The blackout lasted for a year and threw the entire state in dissaray. A blackout not only hampers your defenses it also wrecks havoc on your economy. And shortly afterwards the Free Worlds League was hit with one over the abduction of one of their acolytes who was the sister of the Cpatain General. A blackout can work and didn't Silver Shield also happened under a total blackout of the entire IS? In the real Silver Shield it worked as the Houses had no idea just how powerful the forces were Comstar used (officially those were mecenaries). It might have worked for a while as a ruse for perhaps a handful of planets while the Houses try to gather information (which is hard when you can't communicate as you are used to). It could also serve as a warning (as it did with the canon Silver Shield): respect our territory or else. After all if your economy gets wrecked / your planets starve or die in the worst cases you loose more then you gain. 0

Of course there is a very big problem for Comstar: no HPG means no revenue. It took Blake several years before Comstar managed to turn a profit. In a full Silver Shjield scenario I would wager it would take even longer (if he even had the resources to rebuild an entire realm while also maintaining the HPG net) as a lot of planets needed rebuilding and the goverment of the Terran Hegemony was in shambles after Kerensky had won (a lot of novice officials were trying to rule it thanks to Kerensky's "De-Amarisfication" while clever nobles sucked up a lot of resources by falsifying reports. Blake would have to rule in those rapacious governors while also maintain a strong front to the Houses. Ooof

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Re: The original plan for Operation SILVER SHIELD succeeds?
« Reply #18 on: 09 August 2022, 08:09:35 »
The Houses aren't a unified bloc, quite the contrary. They may desire some of those planets (although some may have been wrecked beyond the point of net benefit), but they hate their neighbouring realms. No House leader wants to weaken his own forces to take on Com* just for the later benefit of other Houses. So Com* would have to hold off the first attacker long enough and damage him hard enough before the neighbours begin their opportunistic invasions of the original attacker. Basically the threat is "Dear House Davion, you may destroy us, but our military and our HPG embargo will hit you hard enough that Kurita and Liao will finish you off." Whoever attacks first dies second...
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Natasha Kerensky

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Re: The original plan for Operation SILVER SHIELD succeeds?
« Reply #19 on: 09 August 2022, 10:26:38 »
the same logic applies to canon with just the Terran system.

As the birthplace of humanity, Terra is fundamentally different from the 20-odd worlds within one jump of it.  Right or wrong, all the way thru BT history, it gets treated differently.  Same logic does not apply.

Quote
diplomacy got comstar a long way in canon, them having a few extra planets would not really effect that.

It should have a huge effect.  Just take Caph, for example.  An inhabited world of three billion people within one jump of Terra, lots of industry including multiple battlemech manufacturers, and a Jurassic Park ecosphere.  No less than _three_ different Houses (FedRats, Cappies, and Dracs) fought over Caph during the 1st Succession War.

So if ComStar claimed Caph, ComStar would somehow have to deter three different Houses from attacking it and/or defeat three House militaries.  Assuming ComStar could pull that off (a very big “if”), ComStar will have issued multiple interdictions, killed hundreds of thousands to millions of troops from multiple Houses, launched counterstrikes on the House worlds supplying their militaries on Caph, and undertaken who knows what dirty covert actions, massacres, and WMD attacks to kick three Houses off Caph and ensure that they never come back.

And that’s just Caph.  Now multiple that times the 20-odd worlds within one jump of Terra.  After all that, there’s just no way ComStar remains a trusted, neutral manager of an Inner Sphere-wide HPG network.  ComStar diplomacy and its management of the HPG network is shot, for good.

Quote
but since most of those units stayed because they were more loyal to the Star league than to Kerensky, had Blake given them an ideal to turn to in preserving at least some of the star league/terran hegemony, i think it would overcome a lot of the issues.

The SLDF personnel who stayed were more loyal to their Inner Sphere worlds and families than they were to the SLDF.  Otherwise they would have left with the SLDF on the Exodus.  When the bullets start flying and the WMDs start dropping in the First Succession War, they’re not going to stick around to defend 20-odd planets within one jump of Terra unless they’re from those planets.  They’re going to go back to their homeworlds and families.

Moreover, if SLDF troopers weren’t loyal enough to Kerensky or the SLDF to join the Exodus, they’re sure as heck not going to be loyal to a random bureaucrat like Blake and his Ministry of Communications, certainly not enough to start taking bullets for them.

The Houses aren't a unified bloc, quite the contrary. They may desire some of those planets (although some may have been wrecked beyond the point of net benefit), but they hate their neighbouring realms. No House leader wants to weaken his own forces to take on Com* just for the later benefit of other Houses. So Com* would have to hold off the first attacker long enough and damage him hard enough before the neighbours begin their opportunistic invasions of the original attacker.

Not how the First Succession War worked.  Multiple former Hegemony planets hit by multiple Houses at the same time.  See Caph above.

Moreover, if a House Lord could not get a planet they desired, they denied its critical capabilities to other House Lords by destroying them.  House militaries don’t have to occupy a world to destroy its shipyard, mech factory, etc.  All they had to do was bomb it (conventional, nuke, ortillery).

Again using Caph as an example, just in terms of battlemech production, Caph had General Systems (Exterminator), Lang (Shadow Hawk), Skobel (unspecified), and Stormvanger (Javelin, Cyclops).  All were lost in the First Succession War, including some to WMDs, and there’s little to nothing that ComStar could have done to stop that from happening, even if ComStar still held Caph at the end of the First Succession War.
"Ah, yes.  The belle dame sans merci.  The sweet young thing who will blast your nuts off.  The kitten with a whip.  That mystique?"
"Slavish adherence to formal ritual is a sign that one has nothing better to think about."
"Variety is the spice of battle."
"I've fought in... what... a hundred battles, a thousand battles?  It could be a million as far as I know.  I've fought for anybody who offered a decent contract and a couple who didn't.  And the universe is not much different after all that.  I could go on fighting for another hundred years and it would still look the same."
"I'm in mourning for my life."
"Those who break faith with the Unity shall go down into darkness."

CVB

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Re: The original plan for Operation SILVER SHIELD succeeds?
« Reply #20 on: 09 August 2022, 11:24:30 »
Exactly: "denied its critical capabilities to other House Lords. "
With Com* as a neutral owner, they could still try another time later without giving it up to a rival unless they razed the planet.
"Wars result when one side either misjudges its chances or wishes to commit suicide; and not even Masada began as a suicide attempt. In general, both warring parties expect to win. In the event, they are wrong more than half the time."
- David Drake

I'm willing to suspend my disbelief, but I'm not willing to hang it by the neck until it's dead, dead, dead!

Natasha Kerensky

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Re: The original plan for Operation SILVER SHIELD succeeds?
« Reply #21 on: 09 August 2022, 19:36:33 »
Exactly: "denied its critical capabilities to other House Lords. "
With Com* as a neutral owner, they could still try another time later without giving it up to a rival unless they razed the planet.

That’s not how the logic will work, generally or specifically.  It’s going to be, “If I can’t have X, no one can have X.”  It’s not going to be, “I can’t have X now, but I’m comfortable letting this untested, new entity called ComStar hold X until I can come back and take X from them, and I’m sure none of the other four House Lords will beat me back to X in the meantime.”  Just not how national security considerations, prisoners’ dilemma, etc. play out.
"Ah, yes.  The belle dame sans merci.  The sweet young thing who will blast your nuts off.  The kitten with a whip.  That mystique?"
"Slavish adherence to formal ritual is a sign that one has nothing better to think about."
"Variety is the spice of battle."
"I've fought in... what... a hundred battles, a thousand battles?  It could be a million as far as I know.  I've fought for anybody who offered a decent contract and a couple who didn't.  And the universe is not much different after all that.  I could go on fighting for another hundred years and it would still look the same."
"I'm in mourning for my life."
"Those who break faith with the Unity shall go down into darkness."

Marveryn

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Re: The original plan for Operation SILVER SHIELD succeeds?
« Reply #22 on: 09 August 2022, 22:41:57 »
The thing about comstar in the early succession war.  1st it grab and held earth with an unknown number of units (as far as the successor lord know) it also control all communication.  The unknown on how strong comstar was and the fact that they could cut off command and control in all major theaters cause the attacking successor Lord to avoid poking the bear on earth, but the same can't be said to be true if comstar brach out into other worlds as it would show comstar is behaving like any lord and they would had taken that as a sign to treat them like all the other states.  Once the first  Succession war burn out. Maybe then it would ahd been possible as all major combat units would had been to exhausted to reacted to them reaching.

Either way comstar would had face the same problem that the republic of the inner sphere currently face.  Too many enemies surrounding it.  That one of the reason why exodus.  He couldn't keep his forces from breaking up and joining one of the states and for each units to join one be one more units in par with the regular star league defense forces and he would be facing combat in at least 5 front. Comstar who would have even less units to defend itself inherited the same problem and with less forces to defend itself.  For that reason i don't think Silver Shield would had ever succeed.  If the exodus haven't had happen, Perhaps but certainly not after. 

CVB

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Re: The original plan for Operation SILVER SHIELD succeeds?
« Reply #23 on: 10 August 2022, 10:16:51 »
That’s not how the logic will work, generally or specifically.  It’s going to be, “If I can’t have X, no one can have X.”  It’s not going to be, “I can’t have X now, but I’m comfortable letting this untested, new entity called ComStar hold X until I can come back and take X from them, and I’m sure none of the other four House Lords will beat me back to X in the meantime.”  Just not how national security considerations, prisoners’ dilemma, etc. play out.
This gets a  bit close to Rule 4, but I wonder how historically any client state ever changed from one super power camp to another, or even existed at all, when natonal security considerations play out as you described. When Armenia switched from the Persian camp to the Roman side, the Sassanids didn't just raze the country and poison the wells, they worked and fought to pull it back to their side. Many more recent examples, but Rule4...

I know that BT isn't kind to  small states, but that seems more a result of not wanting to juggle too many balls at once and less a considered statement on human behaviour and historical precedent.
"Wars result when one side either misjudges its chances or wishes to commit suicide; and not even Masada began as a suicide attempt. In general, both warring parties expect to win. In the event, they are wrong more than half the time."
- David Drake

I'm willing to suspend my disbelief, but I'm not willing to hang it by the neck until it's dead, dead, dead!

Natasha Kerensky

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Re: The original plan for Operation SILVER SHIELD succeeds?
« Reply #24 on: 10 August 2022, 17:49:12 »
This gets a  bit close to Rule 4, but I wonder how historically any client state ever changed from one super power camp to another, or even existed at all, when natonal security considerations play out as you described. When Armenia switched from the Persian camp to the Roman side, the Sassanids didn't just raze the country and poison the wells, they worked and fought to pull it back to their side. Many more recent examples, but Rule4...

Armenia was way out beyond the furthest borders of the Roman Empire.  There were limits to what even Rome could influence and control that far away, and the Sassanids probably acted accordingly.  Same goes for Picts and Brits in the other direction, Germanic tribes beyond the Rhine, etc. These small societies were on the periphery of Roman civilization, where they could remain more or less intact, just like the major states, minor states, and bandit kingdoms of the Periphery have endured for centuries beyond the hinterlands and borders of the Great Houses.

Closer to Rome, however, the Republic wiped out Carthage, Caesar wiped out continental Celtic Europe, Augustus ended the Ptolemaic dynasty in Egypt, etc.  I think former Terran Hegemony worlds would fall into this category, and minor powers in the center of the Inner Sphere would not be tolerated by the Great Houses over the long-term.  This is what happened to most of the Chaos March states.  It took the Jihad to bring the Houses low enough to tolerate the Republic of the Sphere in that space.

Although the Republic subjugated the Greek city-states, too, Greek culture arguably conquered Roman society.  That would have been an interesting twist — to have one or more Houses adopt Terran Hegemony culture in exile.

FWIW...
« Last Edit: 11 August 2022, 08:27:06 by Natasha Kerensky »
"Ah, yes.  The belle dame sans merci.  The sweet young thing who will blast your nuts off.  The kitten with a whip.  That mystique?"
"Slavish adherence to formal ritual is a sign that one has nothing better to think about."
"Variety is the spice of battle."
"I've fought in... what... a hundred battles, a thousand battles?  It could be a million as far as I know.  I've fought for anybody who offered a decent contract and a couple who didn't.  And the universe is not much different after all that.  I could go on fighting for another hundred years and it would still look the same."
"I'm in mourning for my life."
"Those who break faith with the Unity shall go down into darkness."

Maelwys

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Re: The original plan for Operation SILVER SHIELD succeeds?
« Reply #25 on: 11 August 2022, 01:47:37 »
While a Hegemony-sized faction might be a little too big to get away with when it came to neutrality, I've wondered if they could've gotten away with something like a First Circuit-sized land grab, "to keep the Network infrastructure running" but it would be hard to judge which planets would be needed without knowing how things played out in the future.

BrianDavion

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Re: The original plan for Operation SILVER SHIELD succeeds?
« Reply #26 on: 11 August 2022, 03:43:47 »
While a Hegemony-sized faction might be a little too big to get away with when it came to neutrality, I've wondered if they could've gotten away with something like a First Circuit-sized land grab, "to keep the Network infrastructure running" but it would be hard to judge which planets would be needed without knowing how things played out in the future.

the first circuit is basicly a 30 LY radius

Takiro

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Re: The original plan for Operation SILVER SHIELD succeeds?
« Reply #27 on: 11 August 2022, 10:28:38 »
I've been enjoying working this eventuality through for the past couple of days and would like to ask everyone here what sort of naval support do you think the ComStar Expeditionary Forces (CSEF) has for an expanded Silver Shield?

Metallgewitter

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Re: The original plan for Operation SILVER SHIELD succeeds?
« Reply #28 on: 11 August 2022, 10:35:58 »
the first circuit is basicly a 30 LY radius

If we take this as a basis for Operation silver Shield then comstar's Preotectorate or whatever it would be called would have the size of the later stage Terran Alliance. That would be WAY too much territory to cover with the forces Comstar had at it's disposale. Of course if the Houses would honor the agreement to respect Comstar's neutrality that might have worked. Unfortunately the Houses needed to conquer new worlds to keep their own economies going. There is a mention in the Amaris civil war books that the Houses were in essence broke and they wanted the riches of the Hegemony to fix it. What everyone forgot was though that said Hegemony was a wasteland the closer you got to Terra. As I mentioned before just take a look at Caph after Amaris had surrendered: it's native life and nature was greatly damaged. The same goes for it's industry. It would need a lot of rebuilding before it would be viable again (and the Succesion Wars put the nail in the coffin. Caph languished until the Word of Blake came and restored the planet)
« Last Edit: 13 August 2022, 03:19:30 by Metallgewitter »

Takiro

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Re: The original plan for Operation SILVER SHIELD succeeds?
« Reply #29 on: 12 August 2022, 19:33:19 »
I've been enjoying working this eventuality through for the past couple of days and would like to ask everyone here what sort of naval support do you think the ComStar Expeditionary Forces (CSEF) has for an expanded Silver Shield?

No takers, huh? Well to answer my own question I can't see ComStar fielding many warships at the time of this operation. From the Exodus (November 2784) to the start of Silver Shield (June 2788) is less than four years and that would be the time they would have to repair any Star League wrecks (Kerensky took or sold everything he could for transport). Production or repair in the Terran system would be out of the question cause agents of the House Lords are lurking and would likely object or strike in order to claim any near operational vessel. I could see ComStar cranking out Jumpships to support its communications enterprise which would justify ample transportation for the units needed to participate in a larger Silver Shield. Ross and Luyten would be the only possibilities for the production or rather repair of any vessels for this operation meaning a handful (max 6) to a couple (min 2) are IMO most likely.

I also researched a 2788 map and man the Hegemony is crumbling fast my friends. Having fun putting together something chunky here. ;)