Author Topic: Political instability in the Capellan Confederation?  (Read 1793 times)

butchbird

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Re: Political instability in the Capellan Confederation?
« Reply #30 on: 30 April 2024, 20:27:47 »
One thing that stood out in the way Sun-Tzu handled capellan inner politics was his constistency in seeking to divide his "inner circle". This COULD be linked to a certain paranoia, but it could also point out to how the different branches of the capellan system used to be constantly vying for greater influence whithin the confederation before the 4th SW, and this was still fresh on the celestial wisdom's mind.

It could be argued that the fact citizenship is actually something you ACQUIRE and hence has a lot of symbolic importance attached to it, coupled with the korvin doctrine (which in its contemporary form feels much like "everything within the state, nothing outside the state") and the state of constant desperation for survival in the face of bigger opposition then themselves makes the CC less subjected to armed conflict beyond coups. But political intrigues with aims other then simply toppling the top dog
can still be a thing.

Now as a few have pointed out, the 4th SW was rife with treachery and power grabs. St-Ives, the Tikovox Free Republic...but also the Northwind Highlanders, now that was one huge chunk. The gutting the CC suffered would, it is rather safe to assume, leave all powers save that of dear pugnacious Romano in a state of shock. Hence, after the 4th SW, CC inner politics are rather...tame.

But before Romano's time, things were far more interesting. Maximilian's rise to power of course, around which much "higher up" blood was shed and many of the higher offices changed hands. But in a broader sense, it is quite clear the few main branches of the state (Chancellor, CCAF, Warrior House, Death Commandos, Maskirovka, Prefecture and House of Scions) all had a knife at each others throats. Check and balance the Capellan way, if you will.

Of course, the CCAF stands out with Pavel Ridzik (whom WOULD make a power grab as it turned out), but there must hjave been much friction elsewhere. The maskirovka was lead by an ambitious woman who longed for the bygone days where her family held much sway over the fortunes of the capellan state and she had one of her agents posted as the "closest thing to a friend" to Maximilian.

Said "closest thing to a friend" (also known as Dolman Kavajk) was portrayed as constantly seeking to weaken House Master Karl Yadi, whom obviously believes he should be ready to militarly oppose Maximilian if such an opportunity arises.

Then there is the prefecture. While the chancellor sits at that office, he is more or less openly opposed (if we look at 3025) by at least 2 of the other members of this small body. We know how Candace was at odds with her father, at the very least in the economical sphere, and then there is Lord Hargreaves who even dared to oppose Maximilian taking the chancellorship from his father. Some of those meetings must've been explosive.

And of course the house of scions. While their temopral power is limited, being there (aside for budgetary concerns) mainly to point out things for the prefectorate and the chancellor to take notice, around 3025 there was at least Lord Hargreaves creating some turmoil, and we know that in the past the house of scions has had a lot of weight in policy making...weren't they responsible for the appointment of Kalvin Liao or another of those less palatable chancellor's?

Minemech

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Re: Political instability in the Capellan Confederation?
« Reply #31 on: 30 April 2024, 20:41:15 »
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« Last Edit: 30 April 2024, 21:16:41 by Minemech »

BrianDavion

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Re: Political instability in the Capellan Confederation?
« Reply #32 on: 01 May 2024, 00:03:19 »


Now as a few have pointed out, the 4th SW was rife with treachery and power grabs. St-Ives, the Tikovox Free Republic...but also the Northwind Highlanders, now that was one huge chunk. The gutting the CC suffered would, it is rather safe to assume, leave all powers save that of dear pugnacious Romano in a state of shock. Hence, after the 4th SW, CC inner politics are rather...tame.

But before Romano's time, things were far more interesting. Maximilian's rise to power of course, around which much "higher up" blood was shed and many of the higher offices changed hands. But in a broader sense, it is quite clear the few main branches of the state (Chancellor, CCAF, Warrior House, Death Commandos, Maskirovka, Prefecture and House of Scions) all had a knife at each others throats. Check and balance the Capellan way, if you will.

Of course, the CCAF stands out with Pavel Ridzik (whom WOULD make a power grab as it turned out), but there must hjave been much friction elsewhere. The maskirovka was lead by an ambitious woman who longed for the bygone days where her family held much sway over the fortunes of the capellan state and she had one of her agents posted as the "closest thing to a friend" to Maximilian.

Said "closest thing to a friend" (also known as Dolman Kavajk) was portrayed as constantly seeking to weaken House Master Karl Yadi, whom obviously believes he should be ready to militarly oppose Maximilian if such an opportunity arises.

Then there is the prefecture. While the chancellor sits at that office, he is more or less openly opposed (if we look at 3025) by at least 2 of the other members of this small body. We know how Candace was at odds with her father, at the very least in the economical sphere, and then there is Lord Hargreaves who even dared to oppose Maximilian taking the chancellorship from his father. Some of those meetings must've been explosive.

And of course the house of scions. While their temopral power is limited, being there (aside for budgetary concerns) mainly to point out things for the prefectorate and the chancellor to take notice, around 3025 there was at least Lord Hargreaves creating some turmoil, and we know that in the past the house of scions has had a lot of weight in policy making...weren't they responsible for the appointment of Kalvin Liao or another of those less palatable chancellor's?

which is intreasting, sadly this has been forgotten as the capcon has been flanderingized into a boring dull "chinese facism" state, with no real internal issues
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OatsAndHall

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Re: Political instability in the Capellan Confederation?
« Reply #33 on: 01 May 2024, 09:04:58 »
On another note, Sun-Tzu may have been the shrewdest politician in the IS, over that period.

MoneyLovinOgre4Hire

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Re: Political instability in the Capellan Confederation?
« Reply #34 on: 01 May 2024, 09:28:34 »
Low bar.
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OatsAndHall

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Re: Political instability in the Capellan Confederation?
« Reply #35 on: 01 May 2024, 11:10:08 »
Low bar.

Fair point. However, he did learn from the mistakes his grandfather and mother made and didn't repeat them. IMO, another bat-shit crazy Chancellor might have been enough to send the CC over the rails.

BrianDavion

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Re: Political instability in the Capellan Confederation?
« Reply #36 on: 01 May 2024, 13:58:33 »
On another note, Sun-Tzu may have been the shrewdest politician in the IS, over that period.


That's like saying Alaric Ward was the most gifted military stratagist on Terra
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MoneyLovinOgre4Hire

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Re: Political instability in the Capellan Confederation?
« Reply #37 on: 01 May 2024, 14:21:43 »

That's like saying Alaric Ward was the most gifted military stratagist on Terra

Or that Galen Cox was the tallest person in the room when the only others in it were Victor and Kai.
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BrianDavion

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Re: Political instability in the Capellan Confederation?
« Reply #38 on: 01 May 2024, 15:56:57 »
Or that Galen Cox was the tallest person in the room when the only others in it were Victor and Kai.

Well Alaric Ward was specificly used because much like STL he was only brilliant because everyone else was written stupidly when fighting him
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MoneyLovinOgre4Hire

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Re: Political instability in the Capellan Confederation?
« Reply #39 on: 01 May 2024, 17:26:31 »
Well Alaric Ward was specificly used because much like STL he was only brilliant because everyone else was written stupidly when fighting him

And Galen Cox was not a person of particularly impressive stature, he just hung around the two shortest protagonists in the entire BTU.
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Metallgewitter

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Re: Political instability in the Capellan Confederation?
« Reply #40 on: 01 May 2024, 17:32:12 »
On another note, Sun-Tzu may have been the shrewdest politician in the IS, over that period.

Until he met Devlin Stone and was humiliated thoroughly. The Confederation at the end of the Jihad was taken down a peg and only with the Dark Age the realm rose again

tassa_kay

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Re: Political instability in the Capellan Confederation?
« Reply #41 on: 02 May 2024, 00:37:38 »
Until he met Devlin Stone and was humiliated thoroughly. The Confederation at the end of the Jihad was taken down a peg and only with the Dark Age the realm rose again

Gonna have to disagree there. Sun-Tzu being a shrewd politician and him being unable to defeat the Republic are not mutually exclusive.
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MoneyLovinOgre4Hire

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Re: Political instability in the Capellan Confederation?
« Reply #42 on: 02 May 2024, 00:41:14 »
I don't recall Sun-Tzu being thoroughly humbled by Stone.  Though I haven't read any of those books in about a decade.
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BrianDavion

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Re: Political instability in the Capellan Confederation?
« Reply #43 on: 02 May 2024, 00:49:09 »
Gonna have to disagree there. Sun-Tzu being a shrewd politician and him being unable to defeat the Republic are not mutually exclusive.

I dunno, during the Jihad STL did refuse to join the coalition and thus was a result arguably "lost the peace" by not having any influence with the nascient ROTS.
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tassa_kay

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Re: Political instability in the Capellan Confederation?
« Reply #44 on: 02 May 2024, 03:21:20 »
I dunno, during the Jihad STL did refuse to join the coalition and thus was a result arguably "lost the peace" by not having any influence with the nascient ROTS.

I wouldn't say that Sun-Tzu "lost the peace". Thanks to him NOT getting in bed with Stone like everyone else, he was able to stockpile war material a lot easier, and we saw the dividends that ended up paying. From the Capellan perspective, for a multitude of reasons, Sun-Tzu made absolutely the correct choice not to suborn himself to Stone. And ultimately it did indeed pay off: the CCAF was made stronger than ever (and kept sharp thanks to their conflicts with the Republic), all of the lost Capellan worlds (and other worlds besides) were restored to the CapCon, and the Republic itself is now a footnote in history. Sun-Tzu definitely had the last laugh.
« Last Edit: 02 May 2024, 03:31:57 by tassa_kay »
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Metallgewitter

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Re: Political instability in the Capellan Confederation?
« Reply #45 on: 02 May 2024, 05:51:24 »
The Capellans preserved their manpowerr before the Jihad by nuking first and ask questions later. Not exactly the best way to prepare for future fights. Also I would say loosing the planet Liao which was NOT a Republic possesion after the Jihad does sound rather humiliating. And they lost their Crusade against a then weakened Republic when one old Mechwarrior who was already dying wrecked havoc behind the lines. Heck it nearly cost Sun Tzu his one heir. Though I agree it made the Confederation stronger in the end but without Gray Monday we will never know how a 3rd round would have looked like. Then again the Republic had drawn down their military so much it might have been more leaning in the Confederations favor. But who is to say the Confederation will come out alive in the end? The Star League needs it's bogeyman and the Capellans are the perfect target

tassa_kay

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Re: Political instability in the Capellan Confederation?
« Reply #46 on: 02 May 2024, 06:45:42 »
The Capellans preserved their manpowerr before the Jihad by nuking first and ask questions later. Not exactly the best way to prepare for future fights.

You're missing the point entirely. The Capellans were able to squirrel away more of their pre-Republic war material because they didn't work with Stone, who we know sent forces into the other Houses to ensure they were complying with the drawdowns.

Quote
Also I would say loosing the planet Liao which was NOT a Republic possesion after the Jihad does sound rather humiliating. And they lost their Crusade against a then weakened Republic when one old Mechwarrior who was already dying wrecked havoc behind the lines. Heck it nearly cost Sun Tzu his one heir.

And again: Sun-Tzu being a shrewd political leader (unequivocally true) and Sun-Tzu unable to defeat the Republic (also true) aren't mutually exclusive concepts. Clever/shrewd people can still lose, and it doesn't take those qualities away from them when they do.

Quote
Though I agree it made the Confederation stronger in the end but without Gray Monday we will never know how a 3rd round would have looked like. Then again the Republic had drawn down their military so much it might have been more leaning in the Confederations favor.

Irrelevant, since it didn't happen.

Quote
But who is to say the Confederation will come out alive in the end? The Star League needs it's bogeyman and the Capellans are the perfect target

Also irrelevant, since Sun-Tzu is dead.
« Last Edit: 02 May 2024, 06:48:27 by tassa_kay »
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Minemech

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Re: Political instability in the Capellan Confederation?
« Reply #47 on: 02 May 2024, 19:26:17 »
 The current problem for the era is that it is genuinely in everyone's interests to annihilate the ilClan. You can claim that Julietta has gone a bit moonstruck herself, but she should not represent the norm. Capellan shenanigans are known Inner Sphere wide as is the fact that they are going for Terra. 

BrianDavion

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Re: Political instability in the Capellan Confederation?
« Reply #48 on: 03 May 2024, 00:09:06 »
The current problem for the era is that it is genuinely in everyone's interests to annihilate the ilClan.

Ok, why? Why if I was ruling the fedsuns, or the LC or the FWL would attacking terra be in my best intrests? Sure for the LC or FWL attacking the Wolf EMPIRE is in their best intrests  but that's because "massivly undefended territory that could be used to boot strap invasions of their territory if left alone" for say the fedsuns, there isn't much reason to attack at all. let the wolves and capellans beat each other senseless and then pounce on the winner
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MoneyLovinOgre4Hire

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Re: Political instability in the Capellan Confederation?
« Reply #49 on: 03 May 2024, 00:15:26 »
Ok, why? Why if I was ruling the fedsuns, or the LC or the FWL would attacking terra be in my best intrests? Sure for the LC or FWL attacking the Wolf EMPIRE is in their best intrests  but that's because "massivly undefended territory that could be used to boot strap invasions of their territory if left alone"

And also because there are factories there that have been tooled to produce full Clantech war materials, so taking and holding those is extremely valuable.
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BrianDavion

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Re: Political instability in the Capellan Confederation?
« Reply #50 on: 03 May 2024, 01:07:22 »
And also because there are factories there that have been tooled to produce full Clantech war materials, so taking and holding those is extremely valuable.

true that.
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Minemech

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Re: Political instability in the Capellan Confederation?
« Reply #51 on: 03 May 2024, 07:06:26 »
 Apply your logic to Genghis Khan and the Mongols and the reason should follow. That said these are Successor States, who said ensuring that Terra falls precludes gobbling up the Empire?
« Last Edit: 03 May 2024, 07:11:03 by Minemech »

MadCapellan

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Re: Political instability in the Capellan Confederation?
« Reply #52 on: 03 May 2024, 11:04:03 »
Kill the Wolf in the cradle or wait for it to grow back into a ravenous beast that threatens the entire Inner Sphere? Yes, I'd sat attacking Terra at this juncture is in the interest of all Inner Sphere factions, they might just not realize it until they are suffering the consequences.

Metallgewitter

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Re: Political instability in the Capellan Confederation?
« Reply #53 on: 03 May 2024, 13:38:04 »
So going to the topic I just have a question: does the Confederation have a society / group that is opposed to the way the Liao's rules?
Let's take a look:
The Combine has the Black Dragon society (including the council of gems), The Commonwealth and the Federated Suns had movements for "pure" bloodlines while the Commonwealth also had separatist movements. The Free Worlds League probably doesn't need any mention civil strife seems to be baked into it, most extreme might be the Regulans or even the old Scourge movement. But did House Liao have something homegrown? You could say Free Capella but that was more a pet project from Hanse Davion

AlphaMirage

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Re: Political instability in the Capellan Confederation?
« Reply #54 on: 03 May 2024, 13:47:57 »
Free Capella wasn't even necessary a Hanse project, it was definitely something that was allowed to exist in the Commonwealth however, and I associate it more with organized crime as 'charity.' It is not like Tormano didn't have his own designs, he did after all nearly cause a war with it using Peter SD.

As for an anti-Liao movement, I think the secret police were probably very effective in handling those.
The only times I can think of political instability is between Liao, not necessarily Anti-Liao, and there are some instances where that boils over and creates havoc although the most recent instance of that is the well known three-way conflict between Maximillian's kids. Its always a shadow war though a major civil war would likely mortally wound the Capellan Confederation and make it weak enough that someone might try to take over (like they did in my Fanfic).

butchbird

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Re: Political instability in the Capellan Confederation?
« Reply #55 on: 03 May 2024, 20:59:39 »
Again going back in time...

But judging by the way the Sarna People's Front organized itself to become quite influencial in so very little time following the 4th SW, I'd wager there was already some form of "sarnese independantist" organization within the CC before the 4th SW. This is pure speculation, of course, but then such groups don't tend to sprout out from nowhere.

Another example that I'll dust off (while I'm at it) is Gabriel Quinn, for she makes an interesting case study. A highly decorated mechwarrior, a fall from grace saw her narrowly saved by Tormano Liao from imprisonment and quite possibly death. Now while she IS linked to tormano altough she does not seem to be actually genueinly part of his small personnal power base, she IS described as recruiting anti-liaoists for future projects, notably to have some of Maximilian's relations take dirt naps.

This is all old and dusty stuff, but interesting to consider nonetheless.

BrianDavion

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Re: Political instability in the Capellan Confederation?
« Reply #56 on: 04 May 2024, 02:43:57 »
Again going back in time...

But judging by the way the Sarna People's Front organized itself to become quite influencial in so very little time following the 4th SW, I'd wager there was already some form of "sarnese independantist" organization within the CC before the 4th SW. This is pure speculation, of course, but then such groups don't tend to sprout out from nowhere.

Another example that I'll dust off (while I'm at it) is Gabriel Quinn, for she makes an interesting case study. A highly decorated mechwarrior, a fall from grace saw her narrowly saved by Tormano Liao from imprisonment and quite possibly death. Now while she IS linked to tormano altough she does not seem to be actually genueinly part of his small personnal power base, she IS described as recruiting anti-liaoists for future projects, notably to have some of Maximilian's relations take dirt naps.

This is all old and dusty stuff, but interesting to consider nonetheless.

and all ignored and forgotten about as part of the whole "isn't STL wonderful" crap they started pushing, I mean when Free Capella went loyalist I basicly gave up
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Re: Political instability in the Capellan Confederation?
« Reply #57 on: 04 May 2024, 06:07:58 »
So going to the topic I just have a question: does the Confederation have a society / group that is opposed to the way the Liao's rules?
Let's take a look:
The Combine has the Black Dragon society (including the council of gems), The Commonwealth and the Federated Suns had movements for "pure" bloodlines while the Commonwealth also had separatist movements. The Free Worlds League probably doesn't need any mention civil strife seems to be baked into it, most extreme might be the Regulans or even the old Scourge movement. But did House Liao have something homegrown? You could say Free Capella but that was more a pet project from Hanse Davion

The Warrior Houses have, on occasion, been detractors of the Celestial Wisdom despite their supposed loyalty to his or her person above all else. Imarra and Lu Sann in particular have made moves against the incumbent when they felt their actions were detrimental to the state. Ion Rush was instrumental in deposing Romano by helping Candace assassinate her.

Brings to mind the Roman Praetorians, in a way.
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butchbird

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Re: Political instability in the Capellan Confederation?
« Reply #58 on: 05 May 2024, 10:30:38 »
and all ignored and forgotten about as part of the whole "isn't STL wonderful" crap they started pushing, I mean when Free Capella went loyalist I basicly gave up

While I fully understand your point of view, the way things evolved is nonetheless logical (up to a certain point...I'm not knowleadgeable enough on Daoshen's rule to comment past the jihad).

The confederation was effectively gutted inside and out by the 4th SW. Big chunks of the state turned traitor and all the inner powers within the confederation were neutered...save for the chancellor's office, thanks to Romano's character.

The "check and balance" system that had ruled over the inner politics of the CC for its entire history was effectively shattered, a kind of shattering that can easily take decades to recover from if the conjecture allows it. But the conjecture did not.

Think what you will of STL, but the Xin Sheng movement was a master stroke that enabled him, coupled with a certain liberalization of the system, to keep things running mostly as they had under his mother. Making sure no one managed to form new power blocks was just a formality from there on.

As for Free Capella, with Tormano's line eliminated and the jihad in full swing, the way it dissolved and rejoined the state isn't necessarily far fetched.

Now I'm somewhat loathe to say this, but I pretty much agree that this evolution of Capellan politics, while very interesting in its unfolding, is somewhat disapointing in terms of "offering to the lore enthusiast"...it can be argued that, somewhere along the way, the Capellan state lost its soul. To me, the whole "thuggee buisness", which is all that's left on any "inner political haggling" that was once the norm, just doesn't cut it. I'd like to support my point by making relations to china's evolution since the death of Sun Yat-Sen but I'm not sure I could stay clear of the dreaded (but, I suppose, necessary in our time)"rule number 4" as some things are rather fresh in terms of history. Suffice to say that while the triads were initially of importance following Sun's death, they quickly where pushed out of any important role with the unfolding of events, as it should be in any major power.

But then, for all this, I point back to Gabriel Quinn. Such individuals and the small grass root movements they head could easily still be at work whithin the confederation. Heck, I couldn't believe it isn't the case. But these are but small fringe movements, irrelevant to most battletech fiction and sourcebooks.


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Re: Political instability in the Capellan Confederation?
« Reply #59 on: 05 May 2024, 14:00:03 »
Honestly Xin Sheng occuring without any political resistance is the most unrealistic thing about battletech. I can accept giant walking combat mechs being the msot effective military combatant, FTL travel, and all sorts of iother things, but the idea that a ruler can impliment MASSIVE and huge reforms to a state, and that everyone, EVERYONE will not only go along with them, but love him for them, that breaks suspension of disbelief.
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