Political instability in the Capellan Confederation?

[MoneyLovinOgre4Hire]

It occurred to me recently that it seems like the CC has had the most stable of all dynasties in the Inner Sphere.  I can't think of any instances where someone made a serious push to try an take over the state from inside, not even during the worst years of Romano's reign when she was busy offing people left and right because of her paranoia.

Now, some would say that this is due to the loyalty and skill of the Mask and Death Commandos, but I've got to call BS on this because even the Draconis Combine has had their own longstanding issues with the Black Dragon Society no matter how hard the ISF and DEST work to eliminate them.

So I've got to ask, have there been any instances of major plots or schemes conducted by one or more people inside the Confederation to try to get their own butts into the Celestial Throne?

[BrianDavion]

the answer is "nope not really" and this can be explained quite simply with the fact that the CapCon is, the only sucessor state without march lords. The other 4 sucessor states all have eistablished interior groups, "march lords" if you will vying for power, influence etc. the LC has had, tradtionally, Tamar and Skye, the Combine ahs had it's Warlords, the FWL it's provinces, and the FedSuns it's march lords. The power of these individual parts has, obviously, varied with time but they can easily become a thorn in the side of the ruler. The Capcon COMPLETELY lacks this, and in fact they had an oppertunity to CREATE one with St.Ives and then had St.Ives drink the bloody Kool Aid during the Jihad. This, combined with having the largest most powerful military in the inner sphere in the 3140s has resulted in a faction is... kinda dull

[Metallgewitter]

I think the only "fraction" that comes even remotely close to being something of a thorn might be the house of Scions on Capella. It is noted that those people gained more power during the Jihad but it seems that was just a brush fire and Sun Tzu kept them on a tight leash. Also unlike houses like the Free Worlds LEague or Lyran Commonwealth you don't have powerful branch families of House Liao. At the very least I can't think of any not main family Liao who ever hold much power. You could say the Confederation might be that one house where the saying "The state is me" seems to be 100% true

[Angrii]

Also: collectivism.

It's citizens and nobility (in large part) actually desire and work towards what they consider the greater good. Xin Sheng citizen!

[MoneyLovinOgre4Hire]

And the idea that nobody ever decides that they have a better idea of what the "greater good" is than current leadership is one of the most unbelievable things in the entire BTU.

[Metallgewitter]

And the idea that nobody ever decides that they have a better idea of what the "greater good" is than current leadership is one of the most unbelievable things in the entire BTU.

I was gonna say that unlike the Combine which also seem rather "collective" in some aspects the confederation always has that one man or woman to lead it. And even if a non-Liao like Normann Aris comes into play no civil war tendencies emerge.

[OatsAndHall]

I agree with you, the CC does seem to have the least amount of internal strife. There's a wide variety of explanations: the small size of the "empire", the lack of "marches", an underlying, fanatical loyalty to the confederation coupled with a population that's oppressed and impoverished.

[Angrii]

Are they impoverished though? As I recall, they actually do a lot better than the citizenry of other Successor States for standard of living and literacy/education.

Oppressed, I can admit.

[OatsAndHall]

Are they impoverished though? As I recall, they actually do a lot better than the citizenry of other Successor States for standard of living and literacy/education.

Oppressed, I can admit.

I can really only attest to what I've read in the novels. In Close Quarters Milan describes a pretty bleak Capellan society.

[Caesar Steiner for Archon]

Are they impoverished though? As I recall, they actually do a lot better than the citizenry of other Successor States for standard of living and literacy/education.

Oppressed, I can admit.

They're third place, ahead of the Davions and Dracs, but that's really not saying much.

[AlphaMirage]

I mean we are also talking about presented areas in novels. The Southwestern worlds of the FWL are apparently unpleasant, the outer belt of the Lyran Commonwealth is poorly explored and subject to frequent pirate incursions, same can be said of the Draconis Rift and Federation Outback. Odds are likely that the 'average' Capellan might be better off than their Periphery neighbors (even the MoC which has more 'high' but likely as much 'low'), periphery of Successor States,  or distant badlands of even Throne worlds (remember planets are big and the wilds upon them vast and likely underdeveloped), but their max is much lower unless they are someone very important. Thus while the average Capellan is not living a life of material abundance they are likely content in their Dredd multiplexes covered in posters depicting the Chancellor's smiling face.

[Metallgewitter]

There is also to add that the Confederation has a caste system. The servitors actually have it worst with sometimes even being slaves to others (though Sun Tzu abolished said practice). Do other realms have a defined caste system? I think even the Combine has more "freedoms" in that regard. And you have to earn your citizenship by working for the state. I would suspect that this ingrainsd a kind of loyalty into your thinking. Just lke how Is populations have become loyal to the Clans that ruled them for decades (taken from Tamar Rising where one writer speculates that even if the Commonwealth retakes long lost planets converting hte population back to the Is way will be harder then anticipated)

[Angrii]

Servitors can actually earn their citizenship. In the Combine, their untouchable class is pretty much stuck there, I think.

[MadCapellan]

The Capellan Confederation is not without internal strife, but the preferred method is assassination or a palace coup, not open rebellion.  Maximillian took the Celestial Throne that way, & Sun-Tzu's succession was likewise the result of assassination with his installation the intended result.

The reason you don't see civil wars in the Confederation, other than the lack of any real non-Liao decision-makers, is a general collective understanding that a civil war would likely mean instant conquest & partition of the state by its neighbors. It is a game where all players would lose.

[Minemech]

The Capellan Confederation is not without internal strife, but the preferred method is assassination or a palace coup, not open rebellion.  Maximillian took the Celestial Throne that way, & Sun-Tzu's succession was likewise the result of assassination with his installation the intended result.

The reason you don't see civil wars in the Confederation, other than the lack of any real non-Liao decision-makers, is a general collective understanding that a civil war would likely mean instant conquest & partition of the state by its neighbors. It is a game where all players would lose.

Furthering this, the Sarna Mandate and Korvin Doctrine go to the heart of what it means to be part of the state. To a Capellan, the state is reality, all else is chaos.

 The novels really went to pushing the Lorix Order aspect with Danai, but the above two are defining.

[MoneyLovinOgre4Hire]

The reason you don't see civil wars in the Confederation, other than the lack of any real non-Liao decision-makers, is a general collective understanding that a civil war would likely mean instant conquest & partition of the state by its neighbors. It is a game where all players would lose.

Yeah, seriously not buying that the Confederation is the only faction in the entire game where everyone is smart enough to realize that.

[Minemech]

Yeah, seriously not buying that the Confederation is the only faction in the entire game where everyone is smart enough to realize that.

It is less a matter of intelligence and more specifically a matter of mentality. In the Confederation the Chancellor is everything, the very avatar of the State. To move against a Chancellor overtly is to be at war with the very concept of Capellanhood. The united humanity through the state is the only hope for humanity. This is deeply ingrained.

[MoneyLovinOgre4Hire]

Eh, especially after Grey Monday I don't buy that worlds would have started moving away from that just because of the necessity that the hyper-centralization of government was no longer feasible.

[BrianDavion]

It is less a matter of intelligence and more specifically a matter of mentality. In the Confederation the Chancellor is everything, the very avatar of the State. To move against a Chancellor overtly is to be at war with the very concept of Capellanhood. The united humanity through the state is the only hope for humanity. This is deeply ingrained.

You just described france prior to the revolution.

[MadCapellan]

Yeah, seriously not buying that the Confederation is the only faction in the entire game where everyone is smart enough to realize that.

Yet that hasn't been the case for the others, but it was the case for the Confederation from its very founding. the Capellan Confederation came into being becauae the constituent countries were under imminent threat of occupation & absorbtion. "We all stick together or we all hang separately" is embedded in their history & national identity.

[Marveryn]

Yet that hasn't been the case for the others, but it was[/ii] the case for the Confederation from its very founding. the Capellan Confederation came into being becauae the constituent countries were under imminent threat of occupation & absorbtion. "We all stick together or we all hang separately" is embedded in their history & national identity.

agreed ever since the cap been push the corner they been more likely to stick together than die separately Like previous stated when it comes to change in government it normally by assassination than someone gathering a strong military force.  St Ives was the closes to an internal war and sun tzu use his connection as the first star lord to break them and force them back in the fold.  Which was had been his calling card to use the least amount of force to gain the baggiest piece of territories.  it work for the Sarna Supremacy when he conquer it and the highlanders. 

We dont know if the current chancellor learn that lesson well or not.  We do see a slight break up with the Magistrate and the lost of the Big Mac as a Line unit.  This show that the current head is not as nearly as clever (Plot armor) as his father.  the question the lead is when the wall finally fall and he has to deal with the Wolves on terra will the destruction of his forces there would weaken enough that he then has to deal with warlords in places he had not expected or one of his sibs will try for a play at the throne. 

[Fire Scorpion IIC]

Yeah, seriously not buying that the Confederation is the only faction in the entire game where everyone is smart enough to realize that.

I don't think it's about being smart enough, Cappies aren't smarter than average Successor State

It's just that everyone there is fully aware of the fact that other States have enough raw mass to be able to afford fighting civil wars without getting eaten by their neighbors while they don't

[OatsAndHall]

Some of their stability might also be due to the fact that they've typically been on the losing end of military campaigns. They've also been invaded consistently and the Liaos have always done a decent job of painting the CC as the victims of the rest of the IS.

[Gorgon]

At the tail end of the 3rd SW, nearly all systems of the Confederation are within two jumps of an enemy border. I can absolutely believe that the need to avoid open conflict within the Confederation is more intensely felt by all actors.

Besides, we have at least three acts of internal revolt I can think of: the revolt in 2451, which led to all ranks above Colonel being stricken from the CCAF for 600 years (implying strong political control of the CCAF, even compared to the DCMS)

And then there are Pavel Ridzik and Candace Liao absconding with large parts of the Confederation, made possible due to internal strife within the highest echelons of power (and losing the 4th SW and Justina Allard's dastardly good looks or what ever)

[Minemech]

 At the tails end of the 3rd, the destabilizing factor was the arrival of the Dragoons. The states were all relatively stable beforehand, though there was plenty of intrigue between states. All states have bad actors within them, the Dragoons just allowed Maximilian to play a man with delusions of grandeur, and even he would have held back had the Dragoons not been available.

 PS The mode of transition of power in the Draconis Combine is not indicative of its stability as a state.

[BrianDavion]

Yet that hasn't been the case for the others, but it was the case for the Confederation from its very founding. the Capellan Confederation came into being becauae the constituent countries were under imminent threat of occupation & absorbtion. "We all stick together or we all hang separately" is embedded in their history & national identity.

The quote is "hang together or hang seperately"your version loses some of the poeteticness. the thing is, that even if that's true it's also kinda unrealistic.  St.Ives is actually what I'm going to specificly target here, during the interm dark age period the devs deliberately defanged St.Ives and removed their independance, despite us being told the treaty with st.ives did make a few concessions. This is doubly annoying as the capcon in the Dark Ages is NOT a weak state, they are one of the PRE-EMINANT POWERS of the Dark Age era. So the "ohh they can't afford it" bit is BS. Also I find it impossiable to belive SunTzu Liao made the huge number of changes he did, including changing the capcon flag (by which he removed a important bit of political symbolism, all to "chinafy" the flag)  and apparently faced no oppisition towards it. As someone whose a student of political science that's right up there with "And then he won the war when his Unicorn brigade flew in and defeated the enemy mechs with the power of their rainbow farts" :) )

[Maelwys]

The Thuggees could have been interesting, but in  the Jihad it turned into "Just as Sun Tzu planned" and in the Dark Ages with Ki-linn killing herself, that definitely puts a damper on the likelihood of something major changing.

I'm not saying I want to see the Capellans stuck with the Lyran/FedSun noble issues, but something would be nice. Might be that Danai/the Canopians are the only hope there.

[MoneyLovinOgre4Hire]

One of the reasons I started this thread is because I just read Blood Will Tell last week and it left me thinking about the fact that Daoshen has an honest to goodness god complex and yet somehow everything seemed to run remarkably smoothly anyway.

[Minemech]

One of the reasons I started this thread is because I just read Blood Will Tell last week and it left me thinking about the fact that Daoshen has an honest to goodness god complex and yet somehow everything seemed to run remarkably smoothly anyway.

I took from it that Daoshen wants Danai to be competent enough for Successor State governance, but she simply is not there yet so he is now pushing it. She needs to become Capellan. By contrast Nikol had been involved in top level governance since the reunification of the League (Minister-General is a top-level position, if not a military one), Yori had been doing so behind the scenes. Julian and Trillian have been thrust into such positions, and only time will tell how they will govern.

[tassa_kay]

One of the reasons I started this thread is because I just read Blood Will Tell last week and it left me thinking about the fact that Daoshen has an honest to goodness god complex and yet somehow everything seemed to run remarkably smoothly anyway.

Hardly an outlier. We've had Mad Max, Kalvin, Romano... the Capellan state has survived a LOT worse than Daoshen, who despite his god complex is actually competent at his job (as he was competent as a military leader before his ascension). It's almost as if they have centuries of experience in functioning despite the mental faculties of the Celestial Wisdom. Plus I'm sure Daoshen delegates as much as the next House Lord, as it wouldn't do for a god to get his hands too dirty with the tedium of running the state too directly.

I'm also surprised that no one's mentioned the Maskirovka's pervasive presence and lethal effectiveness when asking the question "why haven't the Capellans suffered more internal strife?" I mean, it seems pretty logical to me that, besides all of the other supported-by-canon reasons why the Capellans are as united as they are, a leader who decides he or she might know better than the Celestial Wisdom would find themselves disappeared... or even made a public example. And on a larger scale, one can always point to St. Ives or the second Sarna Supremacy to see what happens when one breaks with the Greater Humanity.

Most of the questions in this thread are answered pretty thoroughly in Handbook: House Liao, just FYI.