War For Terra: 3058

[Medron Pryde]

Everybody knows that the Wobblies took Terra a while back.

Everybody ALSO knows that ComStar shrugged and decided to let them keep it.

What do you think would have happened if ComStar had called for an instant Case White and put up a fight for the world?  Would they have used ALL of their forces, or held the line with the Clans with MOST of their forces and only sent a percentage of their forces to Terra?

Would the Houses have remained uninvolved, letting the Robes smash each other?  If so, how much would the FWL have supported them?  Would the Clans take advantage of the situation?

Would ComStar and Wobblie HPGs have stopped transmitting across the lines?  If so, would they cut the FWL and possible CC off from the rest of the IS?  And if so, would the Houses GET involved?

Would the Chaos March have been even MORE chaotic than in canon thanks to the Robes fighting over whom controlled each HPG in the area?

Would the Robes contract with mercs to fight for them on Terra?  And who, if anybody, would TerraSec side with?

I'm interested in your thoughts on this idea, and looking for ideas for doing something with it.  What do you think?

[Siberian-troll]

Civil war on the Terra (CGuard too small for fast win)
and renewed Clan Invasion.  Il'khan Ozis will be very glad to Focht.

[PsihoKekec]

WoB too severe losses, critical instalations are still on the lockdown and there are some sizable ComGuards units out there but they would still need minimum 10 divisions to win the fight, better more to avoid excessive casualties. Getting that force in place would take time, all while Clans are starting their mischief.

[Stormlion1]

I could see Focht pulling units from the Periphery and say the Suns, CapCon, and maybe parts of Combine and the Lyran Alliance. Enough to form 10-15 Divisions and attempt to retake Terra, problem would be that it would take months to set up, possibly even a year. And that would be enough time for the WoB to fortify its position though merc support would probably be very low. They just screwed a mercenary command over and held its dependants hostage, not something that would encourage merc units to aid the WoB anytime soon. Focht could probably get a few regiments from the Suns, Victor did offer to help Comstar retake Terra but what use he would use them for would be anyones guess? Maybe retake Mars? The big question would be how many WoB infiltrators were in the Comstar ranks, that would make or break any Comstar counterattack.

[Siberian-troll]

The big question would be how many WoB infiltrators were in the Comstar ranks, that would make or break any Comstar counterattack.

All or them. WoB personnel it's former ComStar personnel, which have no desire to have with Focht (arch-heretic) any deals anymore. 
Fellow ComGuarders hardly want kill and die for petty revenge. They have no problems with WoB yet.

[Xotl]

Com Guards win, I think hands down.  Of course, that's assuming Focht brings enough forces to bear, and the whole point of why it didn't happen is because Focht didn't think he had those forces in the face of the (at the time and as he saw it) bigger Clan threat.  So it becomes a question of just what Focht chooses to allocate.

But yeah, with Com Guards forces still fighting on-world and the WoB militia small, I can see how the Wobbies win.

[avon1985]

Big Comstar/WOB civil war.  But maybe no jihad.  Now that would lead to some major changes.

[Niopsian]

Thing is, Victor just happened to have a big coalition army that probably would have followed him (or even better, Focht) to Terra to kick out the Blakists. Oh, he might have lost Masters and the KotIS but no one else had much love for the Word at the time. Whereas cutting a deal with Mori to get easier access to Terra and a grateful ComStar's tech archives would make even Sun Tzu interested.

And there's no doubt Mori wanted Terra back. Heck, Katherine could have cut Victor's growing ties with ComStar off at the knees by promising Sharilar a few regiments worth of support.

[Medron Pryde]

So....what forces did ComStar have available in 3058?

What forces did the Word have available in 3058?

Also, how long did it take ComStar to move their forces and do all of the required work on Tukkayyid before they could fight the Clans there to stop the Invasion?

[Cyc]

Com Guard victory, however I believe we would see desperation nukes ala Operation Scour

[Lorcan Nagle]

So....what forces did ComStar have available in 3058?

What forces did the Word have available in 3058?

Also, how long did it take ComStar to move their forces and do all of the required work on Tukkayyid before they could fight the Clans there to stop the Invasion?

The ComGuard had a lot of troops in 3058, even allowing for roughly 50% loss from pre-Tukkayid number to take into account casualties/defections/retirement/forces still being refitted, you're looking at 6 armies worth of forces, with maybe 60-75% of that on the Clan front. 

The Blakist Militia had 5-6 divisions on paper at the time, no idea if they'd started their shell game yet.  But ComStar certianly had the raw numbers to get a 2 or 3-1 advantage over what the Blakists would have had in-system while leaving a decent force on the Clan borders.

[Medron Pryde]

So it would be entirely possible for them to put together a very large force to hit Terra without denting what they had on watch over the Clans.  One to two full armies possibly.

Interesting...

I see a "return of Earth Defense Force" scenario from that Robotech series going on.  Say ComStar goes in "knowing" they have the upper hand and the Wobblies have some surprises for them...

And then things go badly for EVERYBODY.

Imagine the visual of crashed space ships and ruined....well...everythings....all over the landscape.

Word of Blake holding most of the military bases, ComStar holding some of the bases, and TerraSec holding the cities.  That could be an interesting...theme....

[Dragon Cat]

I think the ComGuard would have beaten the Blakists but I don't think they'd be a power to fear ever again.

In 3058 the ComGuard were still badly ripped up from the Clan War.  Not only that they'd be going in largely blind since most of ROM defected.

WarShips would allow them to easily secure the system since the WoB's WarShips are believed to be on the light side back then but the ground forces they've lively got at least 8 on Terra, 1 Gibson and 1 Mars.  That's not counting everything else they've probably raised.

Overall ComGuard win but badly beaten WoB gone but still Hold the Hidden 5 so maybe a Jihad with the Manei Domini later or ComStar turning to the Dark side again.

Also Gibson could be a problem in future and Cirincus may still fall to its grasp so may still be full blown Jihad.

One thing we likely wouldn't have is the WoB Protectorate since the symbol of that was protecting Terra ala Terran Hegemony, Terra is a symbol but not the only thing the WoB had going for them.

[Lorcan Nagle]

In terms of Warships is possible WoB don't have any in service at all at that point - there are no Warships in their ORBAT from the Fall of Terra scenario pack or BattleForce 2's Planetary Assault scenario.  ComStar were likely in the process of bringing their fleet online ASAP at the time, so they could probably gain space superiority fast.

Of course, this is dependent on the Blakists not having access to a bunch of nasty tricks that secular ComStar either couldn't activate or didn't know about.

[Mart_UK]

FM: Comstar (set in April 3062) has WoB naval strength at two warships plus four more refitting at Titan.  Comstar has 32 in 3062, or 36 if losses from Bulldog and Serpent are not sent against the Clans.

The FM has 72 CS divisions fighting on Tukayyid although they lost around 40% of their strength doing it, so maybe 43 Divisions.  Against that the WoB has 7 Divisions immediatly post Terra (7th Div formed 'just months' before Odysseus) with 8th Division forming later in 3058.

With guerilla forces still active on Terra and the Titan shipyards still in Comstar hands the logical outcome would be a ComStar victory, even without any other House forces involved.  Probably quite a bloody one once planetfall is made, but the Castle Brians are still offline (iirc) so there aren't too many places for the Wobbies to hide.  I can't see any of the successor states getting too involved, let the robes smash each other over the head.

[cray]

In 3058 the ComGuard were still badly ripped up from the Clan War.  Not only that they'd be going in largely blind since most of ROM defected.

The Comguards bounced back from Tukayyid (3052) very rapidly, at least numerically, by emptying the last of the SLDF caches on Terra.. I think they were back to 100 regiments/50+ divisions by the mid-3050s.

[Stormlion1]

Heres a question,. Terra had been the seat of the old Terran Hegamony, so it was the repository for the bulk of a lot of Star League tech and supplies. Terra probably had vast arsenals of nukes that dated from the Fall of the Star League that Comstar had been taken care of, and WoB would inherit once they took Terra. They could have threatened to use them against any fleet that appeared in Terran orbit via ground launch and Dropship launch strikes. It would also account for where the WoB had gotten alot of the nukes it would use later in the Jihad.

[cray]

WoB never demonstrated large scale nuclear assaults except when it tried to scorch Terra. It might not have had as many as might be thought, and it took years to get them into a deployable state for the late Jihad. I don't think Comstar would buy the threat in 3058.

[Stormlion1]

Huh, always operated under the assumption that Comstar would have spent the last few centuries stockpiling old Hegemony tech to both keep it out of the House's hands and use if needed. Nukes would have been one of the things stockpiled.

[Sid]

WoB never demonstrated large scale nuclear assaults except when it tried to scorch Terra. It might not have had as many as might be thought, and it took years to get them into a deployable state for the late Jihad. I don't think Comstar would buy the threat in 3058.

Do you think WoB had access to any, however?

We know a decade later when the WoB was looking at extinction, they were willing to deploy nuclear weapons to try and even the odds.  Personally, I don't see that attitude not existing prior to 3058- afterall, how can they save the humanity from the Clans and Armageddon if they aren't around to save it?

I'm curious how the Great Refusal would have gone had nukes been deployed during a Comstar attempt to take by Terra.  Afterall, the Great Refusal's outcome counted on a lot of the Clans siding on the Warden political side, such as the Ghost Bears 

The Ghost Bears switched to the Warden camp in '59 or '60 right?  Which means they were still contemplating the switch in '58...

"What?  No, no, Comstar- who you agreed to let look after Terra for 15 years didn't nuke it!  That's Word of Blake!  They're different.  Well, sort of...they were there on Turkayyid...but this new Star League that just formed is still legit too!  We're all about being peaceful and good lil' Spheroids now that Terra glows at night and the Word of Blake is gone!"

[Siberian-troll]

Heres a question,. Terra had been the seat of the old Terran Hegamony, so it was the repository for the bulk of a lot of Star League tech and supplies. Terra probably had vast arsenals of nukes that dated from the Fall of the Star League that Comstar had been taken care of, and WoB would inherit once they took Terra. They could have threatened to use them against any fleet that appeared in Terran orbit via ground launch and Dropship launch strikes. It would also account for where the WoB had gotten alot of the nukes it would use later in the Jihad.

Nukes have a fast deteriorating rating, approximately 10-30 years. 
300+ years it's too much for their structure and blast initiating mechanismus.
But fission elements with high half-decay rating can be reconditioned, yes, if ComStal had all needed industry