FedSuns Asteroid Bombardment - Believable?

[Dread Moores]

I don't know which is the case, but I dig option 3.

[Peacemaker]

I don't know which is the case, but I dig option 3.

Why thank you sir. I like to think I can spin a good conspiracy theory.

[Medron Pryde]

VERY good theory.

*RING RING*

"Hello, Word of Blake atrocities department, how can I help you?"

"Hello, we are interested parties in the Taurian Concordat.  Our leadership and people are getting...worn out with the war.  We'd like to arrange for them to be...more patriotic and support the war better.  Do you think you could help us?"

"Ah, yes.  I think this is a job for our planetary terraforming teams."

"Eh...what?"

"Well, let me forward you to their department so they can explain all of our plans, and the payment plans.  We have very generous plans."

"Ah...yes...please."

"Thank  you for calling the Word of Blake atrocities department.  If you need anything else from us, be sure to call."

*click*  *transfer*  *click*

"Thank you for calling the Word of Blake planetary terraforming services.  How can we help you?"

............

[Deadborder]

I can see that. After all, the Taurians have shown no regrets about using WMDs on their own soil and their own people so far.

[Marveryn]

couple of things.  We know what happening cause first we know how the jihad turn out.. two while we got next fax of the war we get the dirt sheet of thing seldom read by everyone include.. two we have no clue how quick or how accurate news actually spread between world and who actually reading it.   cause we have cnn, fox and msnbc we are use to getting news  quickly.  but these worlds are spread light years apart and not all are even at 20th century level of tech.  So how the news spread and what it is spread between worlds is questionable.. then you add censor by the local gov or what the local news outlet may ignore themselves in self censorship cause it goes against there own bias. 

being that the wob are allies most news concerning the wob could had been ignore or flat out assume to be a lie by there enemies.  Thing like wob attacking sian and blaiming the fed may not even had been known in taurus completely.  we have no clue how good intel service is with the taurian but we can assume it isn't very good and been infaltrated by the wob giving the long period of expecting invasion without real solid proof.  so even in the highest level they may relied on the WOB for intel outside of there own sphere of influence

[doulos05]

true, but irrelevant.  I agree that they did not deliberately target, nor fire directly on, the reactors.  This does not matter for the purposes of responsibility.  It is enough that they DID fire on the planet with a significant bombardment, which led directly to the collapse of the reactor roof.  That it was collateral, rather than direct damage is immaterial to their responsibility for it.  But for their actions, the collapse would not have occurred.

Or perhaps more relevant (and hopefully historical enough to not arouse the mods to anger), the 'precision bombing' practiced by the Allies during World War II. Though they certainly didn't aim at the houses at first, the houses were just a destroyed and the Allies were just as responsible for it.

Intentional or not, it's still on them.  The only thing intent does is turn SOME of the eventual War Crimes charges from "Intentional/1st Degree" murder, to "Reckless disregard/Manslaughter/3rd Degree" murder.  Albeit on a rather massive scale.

Yes, though the victors write the history books, so the lesson is, if something like that happens when you start a war, make sure you win it....

[Warclaw]

Or perhaps more relevant (and hopefully historical enough to not arouse the mods to anger), the 'precision bombing' practiced by the Allies during World War II. Though they certainly didn't aim at the houses at first, the houses were just a destroyed and the Allies were just as responsible for it.

Indeed.  Once you fire the massive guns, or drop the bombs, you don't get to say: "Oh, I wasn't aiming for that.  Not my fault."

Yes, though the victors write the history books, so the lesson is, if something like that happens when you start a war, make sure you win it....

Very true.  Don't know what the difference is between "Hard choices done for the greater good." and "War Crimes."?  The difference is perspective.  The winner will define both terms.

[epic]

I don't see why it has to be THAT believable in a time of controlled media and war.  I mean, how many wars have started over a border incident from a squad being shelled by "enemy artillery"?  Heck, the first one to pop to mind, and by no means the last, was the Winter War (Finns and Soviets) where it is almost certain that the NKVD shelled one of their own border squads to create a casus belli. 

It doesn't have to be believable; it just has to fit the aims of the powers in charge.  The TC wanted war with the FS, and they got to keep going with that war with any justification they could use. 

[AnubisZombie]

They wanted it to be Davion so bad the WoB could have carved a blazing sword of light on the front of the rock with a live "Blake on Ice Show" in the sun burst and the Turians would have called it a Davion false flag op.

[jeyar]

I love how everyone is just so knowledgeable on just how silly it could have been...  :-\

[Onisuzume]

This phrase has been due for a long time, imo:
Whatever works in your game. ;)

[Twinkiemonkie]

Indeed.  Once you fire the massive guns, or drop the bombs, you don't get to say: "Oh, I wasn't aiming for that.  Not my fault."

Very true.  Don't know what the difference is between "Hard choices done for the greater good." and "War Crimes."?  The difference is perspective.  The winner will define both terms.

I'd have to disagree there.  Crimes and wrongs are not only determined by their result but also by the intent of the offending party as well.  Culpability for damages doesn't solely rest upon an individual's actions, but rather the foreseeable consequences of those actions.  Whether the roof of a building collapsing under the weight of snow and negligent engineering is a foreseeable consequence of tremors caused by orbital bombardment is an open question. 

Say a mechwarrior fires his weapons with the intent to destroy an enemy target, a gauss round he fires ricochets off armor and takes out an orphanage 3 blocks away, is he culpable for the murder of a bunch of orphans? No, because he did not have the requisite intent to destroy that building.  He might feel awfully guilty about it, but no fair court martial would judge him guilty of war crimes.

I would also point out that "Hard choices for the greater good" and "War Crimes" are not mutually exclusive.  And they are certainly not defined by the winner when you have a widely accepted standard of conduct during times of war.  Even non-signatories to the Ares Convention respected customary standards of conduct that are so prolific that even pirates and criminals generally abided by them.

[monbvol]

There is an old legal saying I am actually reminded of from I believe an old episode of Law & Order is where I first heard it:  Intent follows the bullet.  Now how this might work in the Battletech setting is a good question but I wouldn't find it that unreasonable that people wouldn't care if you intended to hit an enemy mech but instead hit an orphanage.

[Twinkiemonkie]

There is an old legal saying I am actually reminded of from I believe an old episode of Law & Order is where I first heard it:  Intent follows the bullet.  Now how this might work in the Battletech setting is a good question but I wouldn't find it that unreasonable that people wouldn't care if you intended to hit an enemy mech but instead hit an orphanage.

The doctrine you refer to is called transferred intent, basically where if you throw a rock at Person A's head but it misses and hits Person B, you are still responsible for the harm to B.  That said, if you throw a rock at A's head, but it hits B and they stumble into a badly built car that spontaneously explodes killing dozens of people, then the harm you caused was not reasonably foreseeable, then it wouldn't really be fair to hold you accountable for the deaths of all those people would it?

There are also particular rules immunizing military personnel from accidental deaths of civilians so long as they do not intentionally target civilian targets, but intentionally targeting civilians has never been a problem for WOB.

[Stormfury]

OTOH, the Ares Conventions both forbids attacks directly on civilians and the use of orbital bombardment on cities.

Regardless of whether the Word intended to irradiate Tharkad or cause secondary damage, they decided to deliberately attack a civilian target, in a city, with weapons that were designed to annihilate large targets.

Intent is irrelevant. Gauss deflections are a red herring. Not only that, it is something they repeated time and time again throughout the Jihad- I think they even employed orbital bombardment against New Avalon later that same day.

[Twinkiemonkie]

OTOH, the Ares Conventions both forbids attacks directly on civilians and the use of orbital bombardment on cities.

Regardless of whether the Word intended to irradiate Tharkad or cause secondary damage, they decided to deliberately attack a civilian target, in a city, with weapons that were designed to annihilate large targets.

Intent is irrelevant. Gauss deflections are a red herring. Not only that, it is something they repeated time and time again throughout the Jihad- I think they even employed orbital bombardment against New Avalon later that same day.

Noone is disputing that.  I believe I was disputing the assertion that WOB had nuked Tharkad, which was not the case. 

Further, the fact that WOB repeatedly violates the Ares Conventions does not mean they are the only ones, or even the first ones to do so.  From the Taurian, or even a general in-universe perspective, the years leading up to the Jihad saw repeated use of weapons and tactics outlawed by the Ares Convention within Inner Sphere conflicts.  The Black May attacks during the Capellan Civil War, the 5th FedCom RCT's actions during the FCCW and later the Jihad, Free Skye's use of orbital bombardment against Maria's Elegy, the Black Dragon attacks on Luthien, use of orbital bombardment during Sovereign Justice/Thunderstike, not to mention the many examples of attacks on civilian interstellar shipping.  It wouldn't be entirely unreasonable to assume that an Inner Sphere power or a rogue actor operating to further the interests of an Inner Sphere power would cross that line, which was becoming increasingly less sacrosanct amongst Inner Sphere powers.

Additionally, as several people pointed out, it was to everyone's in-universe knowledge, the first time anyone has ever use an asteroid as a weapon of mass destruction.  While several powers have used orbital bombardment, WOB did not have a monopoly on that tactic, and there were no known precedents that WOB using asteroids that way.

Could the Taurians prove that it was the Davions beyond a reasonable doubt? Probably not, but since when did you need to present rock solid proof of wrongdoing to convince a nation that was the victim of an atrocity?  The Taurians needed blood so why would they concoct a theory that blamed the atrocity on the Concordat's apparent allies in the WOB that was not supported by the evidence at hand, while a much simpler solution is supported by the evidence?

[tapdancingbeavers]

Could the Taurians prove that it was the Davions beyond a reasonable doubt? Probably not, but since when did you need to present rock solid proof of wrongdoing to convince a nation that was the victim of an atrocity?  The Taurians needed blood so why would they concoct a theory that blamed the atrocity on the Concordat's apparent allies in the WOB that was not supported by the evidence at hand, while a much simpler solution is supported by the evidence?

They had what, one piece of flimsy evidence that fitted in with their pre-conceived notions of the Federated Suns?  I can understand why they invaded but that doesn't make it any less stupid.  You can find Federated Suns manufactured hardware all across the Inner Sphere and beyond, it's not exactly great evidence that it was condoned by the state on any level.  The Taurians saw what they had been brought up to see, evidence played no part and imo even without this piece of evidence they would have blamed the Suns and invaded to 'right historical wrongs'.  That they resorted to the same style of extreme tactics shows further how they were driven by blind emotions rather than any form of evidence or reason.

[Twinkiemonkie]

They had what, one piece of flimsy evidence that fitted in with their pre-conceived notions of the Federated Suns?  I can understand why they invaded but that doesn't make it any less stupid.  You can find Federated Suns manufactured hardware all across the Inner Sphere and beyond, it's not exactly great evidence that it was condoned by the state on any level.  The Taurians saw what they had been brought up to see, evidence played no part and imo even without this piece of evidence they would have blamed the Suns and invaded to 'right historical wrongs'.  That they resorted to the same style of extreme tactics shows further how they were driven by blind emotions rather than any form of evidence or reason.

I agree that Taurian prejudices colored their views about what happened.  However, what is so irrational about deciding that a strike against your capital was conducted by an enemy you are currently at war with?  The Concordat had already invaded FedSuns territory and was engaged in military hostilities with the Suns and such tactics were becoming more and more common in Inner Sphere conflicts.  Is it irrational to believe that an enemy you are at war with launched a WMD attack against your capital?

Most Inner Sphere powers would have done the same thing.  In fact, there are several examples where states have launched invasions of peaceful neighboring states on the basis of far less evidence.  What evidence did the Draconis Combine have that it was actually the Lyrans that launched the raids that provoked the Combine into annexing Lyons thumb?  Theodore Kurita was perfectly rational and certainly not stupid but he went ahead and annexed the territory of a supposed ally that helped his nation against the clans, and with whom he was at peace with on the basis of what? A couple of mechs painted in enemy colors and a few raids?  Now THAT's flimsy.

[jeyar]

Wasn't the same thing with the CC and the SIC (a few mechs running around)?

Also, exactly how flimsy is the evidence here? I mean there aren't that many IS groups that can even BUILD engines the size needed to meet the description (yes, smaller ones could have worked, but smaller ones don't match the description of the situation)? IIRC, the only IS factions that could build them at the time were: CM*, Wobbies, DC, FWL, Lyrans and Feddies (CC couldn't do it alone until 3069 right?).

CM* is mostly so far neutral in their attacks, but I'd slightly suspect them, for the same reason I'd suspect the WoB (they're from Terra) regardless of ally or not. FWL is a maybe, but since nothing substantial over there happened (like declaring war against the CC or MoC) they look fairly safe, and the same for the DC (but with them it would be against the OA). Lyrans would only if someone paid them, and then we have the Suns...

Now, the clans are an option too, esp. with the OA being absorbed - but someone would have had to sell information to them, and the only ones that the TC KNOWS that have the information is the FS - which would suggest that they'd have known something about the attack (even if not doing it themselves), and that the clan was an ally of the FS possibly...

So pretty much it was likely the FS's fault in-universe perspective wise for the TC people (and I'd suggest that likely anyone that was in universe would have picked up the same points). I myself would have continued thinking it could have been anyone, but that's just because it's always possible, and even so I'd have thought that the FS was the most likely to have done it - even before the FS logo was found.

I'd have placed in-universe the WoB second but only as history shows the Btech universe has so many "allies" backstabbing one another, with CM* a close third, Lyrans and a clan probably tie for 4th place, FWL and DC tie for 6th (there being no 5th), and a super secret crazy plan of the CC as 8th (there being no 7th). Hey - CC is known for crazy plans, so I can believe it. Just not LIKELY however.

But I really can't see anyone thinking that it makes sense for the WoB to attack the TC just yet - maybe LATER it would make sense, but they did it too early. Actually the TC is just a corner of the universe that is just filled with funny timing right now (no comment other than that), but even so, the WoB just pulled the trigger too early to make SENSE.

[Desert Raider]

if you're paranoid enough, anything is believeable

It also probably doesn't  help when your supposed ally controls all your interstellar communications, and therefore controls what infomation you get to see(or not see...)

[Gracus]

The doctrine you refer to is called transferred intent, basically where if you throw a rock at Person A's head but it misses and hits Person B, you are still responsible for the harm to B.  That said, if you throw a rock at A's head, but it hits B and they stumble into a badly built car that spontaneously explodes killing dozens of people, then the harm you caused was not reasonably foreseeable, then it wouldn't really be fair to hold you accountable for the deaths of all those people would it?

There are also particular rules immunizing military personnel from accidental deaths of civilians so long as they do not intentionally target civilian targets, but intentionally targeting civilians has never been a problem for WOB.

It's also worth noting that the original intent plays a role.  If you threw the rock at Person A because he's a prick and you don't like him, the intent is criminal in nature.  If you threw it because Person A was about to shoot your newborn infant in the face, it's not.  Not that it will matter much to Person B, of course, or to the bereaved. 

[St.George]

As to the Gulf of Tonkin incedent in the 60's,,,,it "didnt" start the US involvment in Vietnam,,,just airstrikes in the north.US "build-up" started after Vietcong units started attacking airbases in the south.As to Laos and Cambodia,the North Vietnam used those regions/countrys for years againts the Japaness,French,and US well before the US air-assults latter in the war,so in a sence,both forces invaded 2 neutral countrys.  :o

As to Poncho Villa(though I havnt studied him in great detail).He wasnt the head of the Mexican Gov't,and thus might be compared to the Urikhai(bad spelling).his cross-border-raids where,in my eyes reprisels for being cut-off from his suppliers/backers.A good read on it was in MilitaryHistory Mag with a 100th Anv write-up.IMHO   ???

[MarauderD]

Just thinking about the topic, we know there is massive anit-Davion fear and persecution syndrome in the TC. Furthermore, with the limited communications going on during the Jihad due to whiteout, HPG destruction, etc etc, I can see how even the highest officials in the TC might not know all of the terrible planet wide atrocities that had occurred up to the mid 70's. The obvious thought is that House Davion is going for the throat, and finishing what the Urukhai started back in 66.

Two problems here for me, is that government officials and the intelligentsia in the TC should have thought two things.

1. Strange that WoB offers us a Quixote class cruiser exactly at the time when we want to avenge ourselves on a foreign force also in open warfare with Blake forces. It is too easy, too perfect.

2. History.  This is something that any citizen could have noted, not just government officials or the intelligentsia.

3rd Succession War: No nuclear weapons used by the AFFS.
4th Succession War: No nuclear weapons used by the AFFS.
War of 3039:            No nuclear weapons used by the AFFS.
Clan Invasion (3049-3052)  No nuclear weapons used by the AFFS.
Operation Guerrero: Despite being outnumbered 3 to 1 on every planet that House Marik invaded, no nukes used.
FedCom Civil War:    5th FedCom RCT uses tactical nuclear weapons against the 5th Syrtis Fusiliers.  Afterwards, they are universally reviled for their use.

Now, nuclear weapons are not asteroid bombs, that is a given. The point is, the AFFS has a history of fighting wars conventionally since the 2900s. Whether this is a technological necessity or a moral choice, I don't have the information to say. But from all my source material, the AFFS does not use NBC (Nuclear, Biological, Chemical) weapons in warfare.  Asteroid bombs cause mass destruction on the order of NBC weapons, and I don't see why AFFS tradition and policy would be different.

While we can find source material saying the Blackwind Lancers hit Talon, destroying the Kallon Weapons plant and an Avalon Hussars RCT in the process, I see how this is more likely a false flag op. In the same vein, I think by the time the asteroid strike happens, Blake forces are so ascendant they could easily have captured all the FedSuns parts they would need to make the strike.

So long story short, FedSuns Asteroid Bombardment, Believable? Well, if you were the kind of Taurian who watched 24 hour news and only listened to government sources, then absolutely yes.

If you were a government analyst or a student of history, then no, not really.

[Charlie Tango]

 [copper]

Folks, let's make sure to keep real life politics out of the thread as per rule #4.

Thanks

/   [copper]