OK, I have myself toyed with this scenario, but:
I can't see the Spirits or Mandrills making it. The Coyotes hate the Adders and Cobras.
Agree.
The Scorpions and Vipers strike me as pretty aloof and less involved in bickering with the remaining Homeworld Clans.
The Scorpions yes, but the Vipers have their own manifest destiny stuff going on.
The Adders have many enemies, but are probably strong enough to take on any two enemies.
Agree.
But between the Burrock/Dark Caste issues, Spirits, Coyotes, and Scorps who want the Moreau bloodname) I think they get pulled down like a bear fighting wolves.
The problem here is that of those four you listed, only two are real issues: Spirits and Coyotes. I just can not see the Adders making a big issue keeping a single bloodline, if dropping it reduces the numbers of enemies when pressed by one. As for Burrocks, they are hated by Spirits, and the traditionalists Vipers, Coyotes and Scorpions would smack them hard if they tried to separate from the Adders, so it would be in the Burrocks own interest to not rock the boat.
I just can not see the needed dogpile happen, and I also can not see the Cobras switching sides.
Coyotes/Vipers/Scorpions/Spirits vs Adders/Cobras sounds a bit too neat.
For a more implausible theory, how about a Society alliance with Coyotes/Adders? (Yes sounds unlikely, but both clans seems to have acted a bit strange lately.)
Probably live long enough to take the Spirits with them. Without the Adders to help them, the Cobras cannot stand. The Mandrills fracture and are taken apart piecemeal. That leaves the Warden Trinity, the Vipers, Scorpions, and Coyotes. Which also neatly explains why there've yet to be any incursions from the Homeworlds during the DA.
Except the those two snake clans quote, which does not fit. Good analysis, but too neat.
Honestly though, I can see the Adders making it, but the more I look at it, the more I see the Vipers and Scorpions making it. Since I also (perhaps due to bias, admittedly) think the Coyotes are just too strong to destroy unless they overextend themselves (and they've never seemed that aggressive...until they kicked everyone off of Babylon, anyway), that means the Adders have to go, unless the Vipers or Scorpions get heavily involved and rouse someone's ire.
Around in a circle we go, four left, who will find a chair when the music stops?
There are several mysteries still will muddy the issue:
- There is supposed to be three main storylines in the Wars of Reaving, but which ones?
- How does the ilKhan election figure into this?
- What exactly did the Mandrills start and get smacked down for?
- Why did the Adders attack the Ravens?
- Who kicked out the Horses from the Homeworlds?