...The state of the Lyran Commonwealth is because TPTB decided it was a desired plot development, both on it's own and to facilitate/build up under other plot developments.
From the sight of a fan this could also mean the utter defeat of the Lyran Commonwealth is a long planned development. 8) It
IS single sighted, but for me as a lyran fanboy the FedSuns matters as much as the Taurians do (close to nothing ;) ).
So from MY point of view it is devastating to look at the development and state of the lyran nation SO FAR. Losing vast parts of its territory, sinking billions of Kroner into a project (Comstar) with no return of investment, reestablishing the unloved social generals when we got rid of them and an Archon that never wanted the job. The campaign for Hesperus II is maybe a success, but it looks like a one-trick-show, thus opening the road to even more losses.
So taking the present for a look into the future, the future will hold not much good for us. It is just the hope, that opening the Fortress Republic will turn the attention of the clans to a new target. It is just hope, that Malvina is crazy enough to attack the horses for their retreat and maybe find a stray gauss bullet to her head. It is just hope, that Comstar is not WoB thereby being infiltrated by the worst foe and attracting additional hate from the surroundings.
So for me as a lyran player it is more or less just hope, that it doesn't get worse than it already is. And looking back is no fun at all. As i am not a core developer it might doesn't matter what i have to say, but looking at all the downs and beatings the lyrans suffered over the years doesn't make me cheer.
For what my opinion is worth, all of the original five Great Houses have plot armor that prevents them from being wiped out. House Marik may have 'fallen' for example, but they carry on in a form. The worst that can happen to Steiner/Lyran Commonwealth is on display already.
Now if you take that presumption as being true, then Steiner's future is actually kind of bright. You can't have an epic comeback without having been behind at halftime, afterall.
On the other hand, if you don't share my presumption (or are obliged to publicly refute it) you can still have hope. All signs point to the Fortress walls coming down, and that must change the dynamic that put the Commonwealth in dire straights. For example, if the Republic becomes a combatant, then the Jade Falcons and the Wolf Empire MUST deal with it. Instantly Steiner's position becomes much improved because both of its most dangerous invaders have new fronts opening up. Furthermore, the Republic has reason to be pissed at just about everyone. House Steiner stands alone in the Inner Sphere as not having grabbed up Republic worlds after Grey Monday. This means the forces coming out of the Republic are going to go anywhere BUT into the Commonwealth. Not only that, but both are each other's only choice for cooperation or alliance.
Another fun thing to think about is ComStar. Whether or not you believe plot armor protects the Great Houses, you might believe that ComStar has plot armor instead/in addition. Sure, the decision to bankroll ComStar while HPGs were down turned out to have awful implications in the short term.. but assuming ComStar does NOT go under, then Steiner will have unprecedented leverage over the organization down the line.
I would not say, that there is something like plot armor, just by looking at the war of reaving. Four clans annihilated and the rest sealed for another invasion. Playing one of those clans would be even more depressing.
So IF there is something like a timejump in the near (real world) future, there is no guaranty, that House Steiner is not the one picking the short stick. Maybe Davion, too, but it seems that the always lucky FedSuns needed a kick in the croach after winning and winning and winning. But please detail me the long time wins of House Steiner since the 4. Succession war. I can't see many.
So it could go two ways: Coming back with force or going down entirely. Call me a pessimist, but looking at the history i don't see why we should start turning around and start to win.
Yes, it may happen - or maybe not. May I remind you that the Free Worlds League actually collapsed? There was no FWL for six decades (in universe) and many years (real world).
I would say that the wisest thing you can do is to wait for the Field Manual: 3145. It should provide us with more details than the relatively brief (and differently focused) Era Report: 3145.
I
AM waiting for that one, hoping for some light at the end of the tunnel.
Luckily, you may use some older 'Mechs, unless they have been explicitly labeled as "Extinct".
You don't like the KGC-009 King Crab? Okay. So take the older KGC-001. Its pair of Gauss Rifles is as effective as ever. Or KGC-007 with its paired RAC-5s and Plasma Rifle.
You don't like the ZEU-X4 Zeus? Okay. Try the old ZEU-9S2 Zeus. Yes, this old workhorse lacks the Reactive Armor - but it lacks the XXL Engine too. ;) Or the ZEU-10WB with twin Heavy PPCs. Or the multipurpose ZEU-9T.
Etc.
Do not forget the the Lyran Alliance can import some good 'Mechs - the Neanderthal from the Regulan Fiefs, for example.
Let me say it differently: it must be really bad if one has to rely on century old machines because the newer designs just plain suck.