Wasn't it Uncle Chandy who made the Ghost Bears believe that the Blakists were harboring the survivors of Clan Wolverine?
You're right. It was Chandy who passed along and/or made up Parradeau's journal.
The Bears took independent action against the Blakies before joining Stone's coalition. Some of that -- like breaking the Blakie blockade of Tukayyid -- was driven by the desire to bring more Rasalhagians under Bear protection. The rest seemed to be in reaction to (apparent in some cases) Blakie WMD atrocities at Radstadt, and later Cebalrai and Luthien. Early Bear actions against Blakies seemed driven security concerns -- ridding their peoples, worlds, and borders of unstable Blakie elements.
Stone enlisted the Bears' help in September 3075, at which point the Bears start driving rimward towards Terra instead of securing their Coreward peoples and borders. Not certain whether the journal and Not-Named hunting were part of those discussions. But given how inward-facing the Bears are and especially were at that time, I have to think the journal and Not-Named were the driver behind the Bears joining Stone. It's one thing to secure your peoples and borders. It's another to wage an expeditionary war in the opposite direction on behalf of other peoples and someone you just met. Without the possibility that Not-Named were among the Blakies and the fear that other Clans would find out that the Bears had harbored Wolverine survivors centuries ago, I don't think the Bears had a solid reason to join Stone.
I think... as always with the fuzzy Jihad, YMMV.
Lets be clear. The Falcons are stuffed. As soon as the Lyrans pick up this kind of attack is underway they will be in on it. The Horses have no incentive to back the Falcons.
It's interesting how the Horses are written up in FM: 3145. Khan Gottfried Amirault is described as a political animal, which fits with rebuffing Bear and Lyran overtures and sitting out their Falcon campaign, at least initially. But FM: 3145 also mentions that Amirault is seeking Bear allies to replace the Falcon alliance and that a couple Horse galaxies have been positioned for a drive on Sudeten. It appears that the Horses would join with the Bears against the Falcons, if asked, and would probably initiate such discussions themselves.
The more interesting problem I found is whether the Dominion can GAIN from it. Remember they have to do more than win. They have to have a surviving army that can defend against the Lyrans, Horses, or Combine.
If Amirault and the Horses do want to ally with the Bears against the Falcons, that would seem to secure that border.
The Elsies can contribute to taking down the Falcons, but they don't seem to be in a position to take on a Clan on their own. Even if they were, their priority would be reclaiming Elsie worlds from Wolves. So a future Bear border with the Elsies would also seem secure.
The Combine is the major threat for the Bears, and that border has to be fortified above others. Logically, the Bears should have a contingency in place with their Raven allies so that if one clan is attacked by the Combine, the other will initiate an offensive (or at least raids) on the other side of the Combine.
Rethinking a Republic resurgent plotline, I'd have the Bears sideline the Combine with the Ravens, the Horses sideline the Falcons with the Bears, the Elsies sideline the Wolves with the Republic, and the FedRats sideline the Cappies with the Republic.
The Bears went into Vega to support the Republic. That was the claim anyway. I have assumed that they support the Republic concept and would be receptive to a fight back.
Khan Bekker certainly supports the Republic outwardly. But I sometimes wonder if Omega's "defection" wasn't plausible deniability, and that underneath the Care Bear and traditionally inward-facing Bear pelts, there's not some old-fashioned Crusaderism roiling around.
Plot-wise, it's hard to ignore that the three most powerful Spheroid clans have all been positioned on the Republic's doorstep in advance of whatever happens in ilClan. That's obviously not an accident.
I am not sure that it is public that the Bears (and by extension the Clans) were played so I am not sure what bearing that would have on anything.
I'm not even saying that the Bears have to know or feel that they were played. I'm just saying that the main reason for the Bears to have joined Stone's coalition and the drive on Blakie-held Terra must have been Parradeau's journal and the Not-Named threat. Absent the Not-Named, I'm not sure the Bears would have a strong reason to once again come to Stone's aid.
It could be Bekker's admiration for the Republic. But I don't know how deep that goes amongst the traditionally inward-facing Bears and their Rasalhagian populace. I'm not sure that reason is strong enough for the Bears to once again wipe out several of their own galaxies in someone else's war.
I might go the Care Bear route. Have Malvina overreach and commit some WMD atrocity that can't be ignored -- maybe against a Horse invasion -- and have the Bears feel compelled to respond, probably with some prodding by the Republic. Heck, taking down Malvina after an unforgivable Not-Named-like WMD act could even be a unifying purpose for the Clans ahead of taking out the Republic and establishing an ilClan on Terra.
Random musings... FWIW...