I don't think it would be wise for the Dragon to go for Alshain. I can see counteroffensives taking RasDom worlds, however, if any engagement lasts more than the few months necessary to communicate, plan, and counterattack.
Short engagement with limited objectives--Bear forces will sweep aside opposition. If they dig in and prepare to hold, might have limited counter raiding. If they go overboard, I think it get get ugly.