For counterpoint, I’d say that the ilClan and Clans have the potential to be really expansionary, take over a lot of Inner Sphere real estate, and reduce the Houses to rumps states and exiles. But like so much in BT, it depends on what the authors decide to do with key resources, opportunities, and personalities. For example:
Terra’s Industry: Just going by Sarna, Terra and Mars have hosted between 56 and 80 battlemech production lines. (See list at bottom.) We don’t know how many of these facilities are still intact/active versus safely mothballed versus functionally/actually destroyed by time or recent Blakist/Republic/Clan conflicts. But if these factories just turned out 45-50 mechs a month, that’s a mech cluster a month or 3-4 mech galaxies a year. In five years, that’s 15-20 galaxies. Triple that to 45-60 galaxies if these factories can just manage Boeing 747 levels of production. (Boeing built 3 of those aircraft per month over 50 years of 747 production.) Multiply it by 75 to 1125-1500 galaxies if these factories can manage M-1 Abrams levels of production. (About 75 of those tanks were produced per month from 1979-1993.)
The point is not to argue for a particular number, but to show the potential is there within the Terran system alone to equip a large ilClan force in a small number of years if the authors so choose. (There’s also fighter, battle armor, combat vehicle, dropship/jumpship, and even potential warship production facilities within the Terran system.) The question shouldn’t be how much can be salvaged from the Republic/Falcon/Wolf battle for Terra (although that won’t be insignificant), but how much can be produced from the military factories that the Wolves/ilClan have inherited on Terra and Mars.
In Empire Alone, the Wolf garrison left behind on Solaris VII begins receiving military equipment from the ilClan on Terra (via the Foxes). This could be anything from helmets to mechs. But whatever it is, it may be a harbinger of the ilClan’s future industrial might as Terra’s manufacturing and resources are wedded to Clan drive and organization.
Terra’s Population: Equipping an army is one thing. Manning it is another. But the Terran system provides a huge recruitment pool. There’s almost 14 billion people living on Terra and Mars, a population that exceeds the entire population of the Clan Homeworlds by like a factor of 10x. If the ilClan fields, say, 100 new mech galaxies over the next five years, they’ll need to recruit and train about 5000 new mechwarriors. That’s only 0.0000004% of the Terran system’s population. Even if we multiply this a hundredfold for the other arms of the ilClan military (infantry, naval, etc.) or a thousandfold for support functions (techs, logistics, medical, administrative, etc.), it’s still an infinitesimal burden on, and eminently recruitable portion of, Terra’s population.
Of course, maybe Terra and Mars rise up en masse and bring an early end to the ilClan experiment. But historically, most civilian populations in BT are background sheeple and that’s been especially true of Terra during the turnover between successive ComStar, Blakist, and Republic administrations. And when the Spheroid Clans have encountered resistance, it’s been role-playing color (Dark Caste, Motstand, whatever forced the development of the Sokar) or a diversion (Society), not an arc-driving event.
Again, the point is not to pick a number but to show that the potential is there for the ilClan to field a large military in a relatively small number of years if the authors so choose. The question shouldn’t be the size of the Free Guilds that now work for the ilClan, but the size the Terran population that will now fight and work for the ilClan.
Inter-Clan Cooperation: We’ve been given hints of certain Clans (or portions of Clans) beginning to work towards a greater purpose under the ilClan. The Raven loaders wearing daggerstars or the Foxes building mechs for the Wolves. It remains to be seen how far and deep this cooperation goes, but the potential is there for the Clans to set aside their historical inter-Clan squabbling and trialing and really coordinate and focus their efforts against the Houses.
Will the Raven warships headed to Terra complete a mere diplomatic mission before returning or will they blunt a Cappie assault on Terra? Will the Foxes continue supplying the ilClan from afar or will they put down roots in the Terran system with Arcships, Enclaves, and Clantech upgrades to Terra’s military factories? Will the Cats and Foxes in the Protectorate work together with the ilClan to establish a home for a new Clan Nova Cat? Will the Ravens help the Bears with their offensive by hitting the Combine from the other direction? Will the ilClan reunite with or otherwise ensure the survival of the Wolf Empire? Are the Horses really going to go after the ilClan or will they be brought into the fold?
Authors could take each of these turning events in any number of directions, but the potential is there for the Clans to work with some unity of purpose in common cause against the Houses and weaken them as the ilClan expands outward from Terra.
Whither the SLDF and Wolf Touman: The original SLDF was essentially a peacekeeping force that rarely saw action and then only when attacked first. An ilClan SLDF, and one led by Anastasia, seems unlikely to play the same role. Presumably, they’ll be pressing outward for some time to come, establishing a core holding for the ilClan around Terra. Or they’ll probably be causing trouble for the Houses elsewhere. If the Cappies manage a strike at Terra, some degree of retribution and sidelining of that threat would be a natural first job for the ilClan SLDF. Or establishing a home for a reborn Smoke Jaguar Clan? Or maybe all of the above in the same systems.
Same goes for the Wolf Touman, assuming it is separate and distinct from the SLDF. If the Goons don’t put him down first, is Alaric really done conquering? Or will he make good on his matrilineal claims to the Tharkad throne? To the New Avalon throne?
It took Ian Cameron 20 years of diplomacy, backroom dealings, and threats to establish the first Star League. Similarly, Alaric, Anastasia, the ilClan, the SLDF, and the Wolf Touman may have just been getting started with Terra. We could be looking at decades of Clan offenses until the ilClan Era reaches some measure of stasis.
Technological Wildcards: The Clans have certain technological advantages that they’ve never really pressed hard on. To name a couple, there’s Iron Wombs and the Interface Cockpit.
Iron Wombs allow a Clan to artificially increase the size of its population at rates constrained resources (food, clothing, shelter, education), rather than the physiology of human reproduction. And now the ilClan has the resources of Terra. It still takes a generation to field a new trueborn generation, but with enough resources, the size of that new generation can be arbitrarily large compared to what the Clans were used to in the Homeworlds. And with an obvious eye on Terra, a savvy Wolf Khan could have kickstarted that sometime after the Wolf Empire was established, if the authors so wished.
The spread of Interface Cockpits has been constrained by the deleterious effects of Enhanced Imaging tattoos on the long-term mental state of mechwarriors. But after decades of use and given the extremely advanced state of Clan combat medicine, it seems natural that a workaround could emerge that allows most/all Clan warriors to safely use EI and ICs. That would allow ICs to proliferate far beyond the Skinwalker and Parash, giving the ilClan and Clans the same kind of widespread technological advantage they enjoyed at the outset of Operation Revival, even against House units employing Clantech weapons.
To sum up and be clear, I’m not predicting with certainty that any of this will happen. But throw the toggles on just a few of these, and it’s easy to see a path towards ilClan/Clan domination if that’s the direction the authors want to take the Inner Sphere.
Looking at the precedent set so far in Lyran and former Falcon space, I’m guessing the ilClan Era will result in a lot of balkanization that generally comes at the expense of the Houses and that tends to benefit the ilClan/Clans. But for the sake of storytelling and gameplay, the kind of near-absolute and boring domination that the original SLDF/TH/Star League enjoyed will probably not come to pass under the ilClan.
FWIW... YMMV.
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Terra Mech Production Lines
Amaris Arms
Matar
Blankenburg
Grim Reaper -29, -30, -31
Crockett 5003-2, 5003-3, 5004-1
Devil’s Peak
Revenant
Ford
Thorn -F, -N, -N1
Krupp
Dragoon -01, -02, -03, -04
Leopard
Red Shift
Martinson
Initiate
Kyudo
Lightray
Spartan
Deva
Preta
Gregori
Ostman
Ostwar
Ostroc
Quarry
Emperor -1A
RAF Providence
Celerity
Revenant
Lich
Sekkaris
Deva
Malak
Preta
Grigori
Seraph
Archangel
StarCorps
Warhammer -9S, -10CT
Longbow -12C
Emperor -6A
Highlander -736
Doloire
Skobel
Jackrabbit
Mercury -99, -102
Nexus 1-A, 2-A, 2-B
Osprey -26, -36
Excalibur -B2, -D1
Gallant
Lament -2D, -2R, -3C, -3R, -4RC
Grand Crusader -03, -04
Legacy
Mackie
Vanquisher -2A, -2B
Omega -4X, -5R
Mars Mech Production Lines
Cosara
King Crab
General Mechanics
Wasp -1, -1A, -3L
Kintaro
Krupp
Lancelot
Sekkaris
Deva
Malak
Preta
Grigori
Seraph
Archangel