What if the Word focused instead of generalized?

[thedancingjoker]

The really baller move for WoB forces would be to time simultaneous assaults along all the clan worlds they wanted.  Bid for a trial of possession.  And then nuke every clan force that gathered on the field of honor.  Timing and jumpship routes would be a nightmare but I’m willing to bet that with the clan’s honor system and fighting the owners of Holy Terra they would put a significant portion of their forces into the fights, and definitely the best of each clan.  You would start the war off with eviscerating the heart of the Clan War machine.  And compared to the Mechs needed to defeat a cluster or two of clan mechs nuke’s are cheap.

[General308]

I...agree. I said a successful strike on the homeworlds by the Word of Blake would be "a mystery on par with the Minnesota Tribe."

I specified that doing that stuff in a Clan Occupation Zone, all of which are in the Inner Sphere, would cause problems.

Not really.  I just don't think the IS cares unless it is  happening to them.  But for WoB it doesn't matter because rather the lyrans, Combine. Rassalugue,  Or those comstar forces in Rassaluge want to or not they are now fighting the clans because anything that WoB doesn't hit wave one launches an assualt.   

Remember WoB's goal isn't to win the minds of the nobelity of the IS but the hearts and minds of normal people their goal is for them to go "WoB let the invasion that killed the clan yeah make them First Lord"

[klarg1]

A real discussion about this broke out while I was typing. I agree with the notion that the IS powers aren't too interested in WMDs as long as they're not the target of them.

But if The Word of Blake rocked up with a quarter of what we saw during The Jihad, alarm bells would sound throughout the Inner Sphere's upper echelons. The result would be disbelief, fear, or envy. With the Clans being their endgame, they'd bring it all, which is more than a quarter. I can see the Great Houses appreciating that power being on their side, but only until they can find out how to steal/destroy its source before it turns on them.

Very much this.

I think the DC and LA would be tickled to have the clans kicked out of their former territory, and might even put up more than token support, but everyone would sit up and notice 40 divisions appearing out of nowhere. As the canonical storyline indicates, that’s an existential threat to any great power.

I also think the numbers quoted above are a little bit harsh. On paper, a WoB division should be roughly twice the size of an inner sphere regiment (am I miscounting?). Counting half as conventional forces is reasonable, but that should still count for something. (Not enough to take on all the clans alone, but not nothing either)

ETA:

Assuming the WoB maintain some element of surprise, they also have the attacker’s benefit of concentration of force. Nothing stops them from targeting 3-4 key galaxies as first strike targets and dropping 6-7 divisions on each (maybe plus WMDs), taking a dozen or more clusters off the board at the start.

I think things get much more complicated when they start bombarding planets full of potential Lyran or Draconis citizens in the name of annihilating the clans. There is every possiblity that done powers would turn on them then, leading to a different form of general Spgere-wide conflict. Could be a good AU tale for someone to write.

[Hellraiser]

I think the 1 big problem w/the Word's plan is getting to the Homeworlds with surprise intact.

The Clans have their own HPG network & have a boatload more naval forces than the Word.

And while this What If mentions changing over to the "real/original" Jihad plan, it doesn't really take into account the Society & the "Reavings" that went on well after the Jihad started up IIRC.

If those haven't happened yet or don't happen in this scenario then I think you have a lot harder time getting anywhere in the OZ or homeworlds or exodus road w/o being spotted.  You've got what, 10 entire home world clans or so & some invader clan garrisons all back there.

Most clan worlds are garrisoned way heavier than most IS worlds in terms of Mechs & Naval presence in system.

There there is the timing of hitting the OZ first or the Home worlds first or coordinating the exact timing of it all.

There were 13? Shadow Divisions?    Without a lot of surprise & a lot of nukes that is just going to cause some damage & then piss off the Grand Council to the point that the Viper/Adders "taint" war gets directed back at the WoB and you have a whole different kind of "Revival" to get to Terra & claim it from the Heretics.

[Fire Scorpion IIC]

Correct

Plus after SERPENT the Clans in the Homeworlds would be paying close attention to anything that might be showing up uninvited which wasn't the case before

[Lance Leader]

I think the 1 big problem w/the Word's plan is getting to the Homeworlds with surprise intact.

  I don't think that's much of an issue.  None of the major powers have the ability to patrol the tens or hundreds of dead systems surrounding each inhabited one so the Clans shouldn't have any early warning.  The Watch, like the Inner Sphere intelligence agencies, have no idea the Manei Domini exist but even if they did it would be just about impossible to intercept them before they jumped in system. 

  Once they are in system it becomes a different problem.  Even from a pirate point I think it would be pretty hard to get to the planet without being intercepted by an orbiting defending force.  If the Word can't reliably get to a planet without interception we are looking at full nuclear space battles.  It would be interesting to see how that would play out with every fighter packing Davy Crockets and every naval missile being nuclear tipped.  I'm not sure how well capital vessels would hold up a nuke free environment.

  The Word still has a massive advantage though in that they can concentrate and hit each Clan world one at a time with overwhelming force while the Clans would have to spread out to defend against them.  The Clans could have fleets on stand by guarding multiple systems to jump in the instant a Word attack force is detected though, especially with Lithium Batteries.  The other issue is Mutually Assured Destruction, as hard as it would be for the Clans to defend against nuclear and bio weapon attacks it would be equally hard for the Word to defend itself from any counter attack.  The fact that Terra is sacred to Clans would help but I sure wouldn't want to be on Gibson if things went full WMD.

[General308]

  I don't think that's much of an issue.  None of the major powers have the ability to patrol the tens or hundreds of dead systems surrounding each inhabited one so the Clans shouldn't have any early warning.  The Watch, like the Inner Sphere intelligence agencies, have no idea the Manei Domini exist but even if they did it would be just about impossible to intercept them before they jumped in system. 

  Once they are in system it becomes a different problem.  Even from a pirate point I think it would be pretty hard to get to the planet without being intercepted by an orbiting defending force.  If the Word can't reliably get to a planet without interception we are looking at full nuclear space battles.  It would be interesting to see how that would play out with every fighter packing Davy Crockets and every naval missile being nuclear tipped.  I'm not sure how well capital vessels would hold up a nuke free environment.

  The Word still has a massive advantage though in that they can concentrate and hit each Clan world one at a time with overwhelming force while the Clans would have to spread out to defend against them.  The Clans could have fleets on stand by guarding multiple systems to jump in the instant a Word attack force is detected though, especially with Lithium Batteries.  The other issue is Mutually Assured Destruction, as hard as it would be for the Clans to defend against nuclear and bio weapon attacks it would be equally hard for the Word to defend itself from any counter attack.  The fact that Terra is sacred to Clans would help but I sure wouldn't want to be on Gibson if things went full WMD.

I mean good luck getting to Gibson.  That is a long way from even the IS Clans front line.   And understand things would have went full WMD in the clan homeworlds that was the plan day one.  That was a one way trip for the Shadow Division by plan

[Natasha Kerensky]

I think the 1 big problem w/the Word's plan is getting to the Homeworlds with surprise intact.

The Blakist (really Herb’s) plan for approaching the Homeworlds appears to have been the Blakist Super-Jump Drive.  Basically rewires a standard K-F drive and lithium fusion battery to enable a 900ly jump radius at the cost of burning out the drive and battery (one-way ticket) and some greater chance of misjump.  The Exodus Road was 1000ly, so the Super-Jump Drive would have enabled a Shadow Division armada to reach the Homeworlds in a single jump from some staging position(s) in the near Periphery.  Unless the Clans came across intel on those staging positions, they wouldn’t have known what was coming.  More here:

https://www.sarna.net/wiki/Super-Jump_Drive

There were 13? Shadow Divisions?    Without a lot of surprise & a lot of nukes

A lot of nukes appears to have been the Blakist/Herb plan.  The Blakists had manufactured or developed Mule Pocket Warships and Mule Q-Ships that each hid four AR-10 launchers, 20 to 36 capital missiles, and six aerospace fighters.  So if those capital missiles were nuclear-tipped Asset Management Weapons, Santa Anas, and Peacemakers, a single Invader jumpship rigged for Super-Jump and carrying three of these Mules could deliver 60 to 108 nukes against a single Clan Homeworld after one 900ly jump.  More if the aerospace fighters were carrying Alamos.  Obviously enough nukes to send any Clan Homeworld back to the Neolithic assuming the nukes get through.  At that point, the clean-up by Shadow Division conventional forces could have been trivial.

https://www.sarna.net/wiki/Mule

https://www.sarna.net/wiki/Nuclear_Weapons

There were something like 40 Clan Homeworlds, so using my example in the prior paragraph, we’re talking a force of 40 Super-Jump Invaders, 120 Mule Pocket Warships/Q-Ships, and 7K to 13K nuclear-tipped Capital missiles to effectively sideline the Clan Homeworlds in a single strike.  Given we’re talking about modifying the most common jumpships and dropships in the Inner Sphere and given that there are over 12K nuclear warheads on the real world Earth today, even doubling that “to make sure” seems within the capabilities of the Blakists.

This is just me, but I suspect Erinyes and the Blakist preoccupation with biochem weapons was to help the nukes get through.  Some weeks before this nuclear strike force jumped into the Pentagon and Kerensky Cluster, I think the Blakists’ two Erinyes/Newgrange Yardships would have sneakily jumped into the far reaches of a handful these systems and unleashed relativistic asteroids to create on-world crises that would have drawn Clan aerospace assets away from the other worlds.  Same goes for sneaking some Class V biological agents onto a handful of other Clan Homeworlds.  Tie up Clan warships, jumpships, and dropships with evacuations, emergency supply runs, and/or heightened patrols of, say, ten Clan Homeworlds, and the aerospace defenses of the other 30 might be greatly degraded.  And then paint the Blakist Mules in Clan colors and false flags, equip them with the right IFF codes, and teach their captains how to say “emergency supply run from Clan X” with the right Clan accents, and it might be very straightforward to unleash scores of nukes against most/all the Clan Homeworlds before the Clanners could realize what was happening and react.  The conventional Shadow Divisions forces would follow some days/weeks later for cleanup.

https://www.sarna.net/wiki/Erinyes_(Individual_WarShip)

https://www.sarna.net/wiki/Biological_Weapons

It’s all subject to fiat — some misjumps and/or a couple smart Clan strategic defense system operators could spoil these attacks at certain Clan Homeworlds.  But I think all the pieces for such a plan were there in the Jihad sourcebooks even if those books weren’t very explicit about it.

FWIW...

[ColBosch]

Natasha is spot-on, from what I remember. It also wasn't going to begin immediately. What the Word of Blake had in 3067 was just what they'd managed to build up at that point. They thought that, like Operations Bulldog and Serpent, there would be some time to further expand their forces and coordinate with the Great Houses. What's really interesting is that the plan would've worked. Although the Inner Sphere powers had no way of knowing it, the Wars of Reaving were about to kick off. Had the Blakists' planned campaign begun in, say, 3070 then they would've faced a vastly reduced Clan presence. It would've been an atrocity on a scale not seen since the Amaris Civil War, but with their hypertech and the rest of the Inner Sphere behind them, this alternate Jihad would've scrubbed the Clans from known space.

If you're thinking "that doesn't sound like much fun," you're right. That's why it didn't happen, just like how the Federated Commonwealth had to split up, like how Victor Steiner-Davion and Omi Kurita couldn't marry, and like how the canonical Word of Blake Jihad didn't destroy the Great Houses.

[Lance Leader]

What's really interesting is that the plan would've worked.

 It's fitting that the Word's plan fell apart not because of any technical or tactical flaws but because they failed to read the political situation with the disbanding of the 2nd Star League.  Although I know it was more to make the book a Vietnam War analogy in Ideal War the protagonist observes that the Word saw war as a numbers game and failed to take into account the human element in their war against Gibson guerrillas.  It seems to be a theme with the Word that they are generally competent tactically and technically but fall short when it comes to understanding people. 

[MoneyLovinOgre4Hire]

What do you expect from a bunch of fanatical cultists?

[Fire Scorpion IIC]

.....Had the Blakists' planned campaign begun in, say, 3070 then they would've faced a vastly reduced Clan presence. It would've been an atrocity on a scale not seen since the Amaris Civil War, but with their hypertech and the rest of the Inner Sphere behind them, this alternate Jihad would've scrubbed the Clans from known space.
....

Coulda, woulda, shoulda doesn't win wars

By this logic had the Clans planned campaign began in 3030s they would have scrubbed the Successor States from known space

And we could apply this to any event ever in the setting

Simple fact remains that the whole WoB plan had way too many points of failure, a single thing not unfolding as ideally as hoped and the whole project immediately collapses on itself before backfiring horribly

It's a plan put together by religious fanatics and it shows

Well funded religious fanatics but religious fanatics nonetheless

[General308]

Coulda, woulda, shoulda doesn't win wars

By this logic had the Clans planned campaign began in 3030s they would have scrubbed the Successor States from known space

And we could apply this to any event ever in the setting

Simple fact remains that the whole WoB plan had way too many points of failure, a single thing not unfolding as ideally as hoped and the whole project immediately collapses on itself before backfiring horribly

It's a plan put together by religious fanatics and it shows

Well funded religious fanatics but religious fanatics nonetheless

Should of could of would of in that case is fair.  Because while we know WoB was planing to attack the Clans.  We just know that is what they buildup was for and what the plan for those forces were.

I think people leave out the posiablity that WoB may have knew about the Society.   People forget about the Babylon Diets WoB was able to get there fingers in there real nice who knows what they learned.

[Fire Scorpion IIC]

Should of could of would of in that case is fair.  Because while we know WoB was planing to attack the Clans.  We just know that is what they buildup was for and what the plan for those forces were....

With threshold that low it works in any case ever

We know what McKenna planned to do, we know what Amaris planned to do, we know what Kurita planned to do, we know what Hanse planned to do, we know what Showers planned to do, we know what Hazen planned to do

Take your pick

...
I think people leave out the posiablity that WoB may have knew about the Society.   People forget about the Babylon Diets WoB was able to get there fingers in there real nice who knows what they learned.

WoB being somewhere doesn't automatically translate to WoB knowing something or any such knowledge, real or otherwise, translate into WoB accomplishing anything as events have shown

What we actually do know for certain is that when WoB attempts something and it inevitably fails due to poor planning and wishful thinking born of religious fanaticism they simply lash out at whoever is closest and then blame someone else for their failures

[General308]

What we actually do know for certain is that when WoB attempts something and it inevitably fails due to poor planning and wishful thinking born of religious fanaticism they simply lash out at whoever is closest and then blame someone else for their failures

Took Terra just fine didn't they. 

 

[MoneyLovinOgre4Hire]

It's not really hard to take a planet when you have very intimate knowledge of that planet's defenses thanks to your having been on that planet until only a few years ago, plus the person in charge of protecting that planet apparently having no clue what he was doing and not even realizing the strategic value of said planet.

[ColBosch]

It's not really hard to take a planet when you have very intimate knowledge of that planet's defenses thanks to your having been on that planet until only a few years ago, plus the person in charge of protecting that planet apparently having no clue what he was doing and not even realizing the strategic value of said planet.

A not-insignificant number of ComStar personnel on Terra were active Blakist agents and many others shrugged and swapped the patches on their robes. Military actions were limited and life did not change for the vast majority of people, civilians and administrators alike. But the Word was deliberately trying to capture the planet with minimal casualties and conflict. They would not have been so restrained against the Clans.

And no, I don't think they had any clue about the brewing Scientist revolt. Even then, that wasn't the key to the Wars of Reaving. That conflict started - and ended - with the Homeworld Clans deciding to destroy the "Inner Sphere taint" among them. The Scientist revolt was almost a sideshow that was meant to curb the destruction of the Reavings. Note that Clan Coyote survived while the remaining Hell's Horses were made to form a new Clan. Someone suggested that the Scientist Caste would've offered their forces to aid the Homeworld Clans against the Blakists, and that is certainly a possibility.

[Caesar Steiner for Archon]

I never got the "Star League is too expensive" excuse for disbanding The Star League, since you could just move to reduce your commitments now that you've got twice as many votes.

You could read it as "too expensive for what it's doing for us" considering that only the Combine and Capellans ever had any real benefit from it.

[tassa_kay]

And no, I don't think they had any clue about the brewing Scientist revolt. Even then, that wasn't the key to the Wars of Reaving. That conflict started - and ended - with the Homeworld Clans deciding to destroy the "Inner Sphere taint" among them. The Scientist revolt was almost a sideshow that was meant to curb the destruction of the Reavings. Note that Clan Coyote survived while the remaining Hell's Horses were made to form a new Clan. Someone suggested that the Scientist Caste would've offered their forces to aid the Homeworld Clans against the Blakists, and that is certainly a possibility.

While I do agree with you here on all points, I think that the Blakists knowing about the Society is at least plausible. The Clans' internal security is a joke in comparison to most other realms, and if they could get their hands on a transcript/footage of that Grand Council meeting, which I would assume is at least somewhat secure, I would think they wouldn't have that much trouble penetrating (and possibly even co-opting, to some degree; we've seen them do it many times) a lower-caste conspiracy, especially given all of the secrets they were shown to be privy to. And if the Blakists did get their fingers into the Society, that revolt could've become much more than the sideshow that it ended up actually being.

[ColBosch]

While I do agree with you here on all points, I think that the Blakists knowing about the Society is at least plausible. The Clans' internal security is a joke in comparison to most other realms, and if they could get their hands on a transcript/footage of that Grand Council meeting, which I would assume is at least somewhat secure, I would think they wouldn't have that much trouble penetrating (and possibly even co-opting, to some degree; we've seen them do it many times) a lower-caste conspiracy, especially given all of the secrets they were shown to be privy to. And if the Blakists did get their fingers into the Society, that revolt could've become much more than the sideshow that it ended up actually being.

I will accede to the possibility here.

[General308]

It's not really hard to take a planet when you have very intimate knowledge of that planet's defenses thanks to your having been on that planet until only a few years ago, plus the person in charge of protecting that planet apparently having no clue what he was doing and not even realizing the strategic value of said planet.

Which would point to Comstar not knowing what they are doing not WoB.  It is insane Comstar lost Terra and was like no big deal nothing importnat there.  When the largest War industrial infulstructer existed (known) on that planet.  Which would point to Comstar not WoB not knowing what they are doing.

[MoneyLovinOgre4Hire]

Which would point to Comstar not knowing what they are doing not WoB.  It is insane Comstar lost Terra and was like no big deal nothing importnat there.  When the largest War industrial infulstructer existed (known) on that planet.  Which would point to Comstar not WoB not knowing what they are doing.

The point is that with Comstar as compromised as it was, the WoB didn't need to be terribly competent because the deck was already stacked in their favor.  They'd have had no such advantages against the Clans.

[General308]

The point is that with Comstar as compromised as it was, the WoB didn't need to be terribly competent because the deck was already stacked in their favor.  They'd have had no such advantages against the Clans.

The clans had also proven twice that they had no abilty to fight real war.

[Minemech]

 It was not unimportant, Mori knew that much and was willing to die for it, rather it was not a priority for Focht. Focht made some extremely poor decisions. He was fine when he was subservient, but a rotten head of state (Yes, the Primus was supposed to be, but anyone who breathed knew better).

[Charistoph]

It was not unimportant, Mori knew that much and was willing to die for it, rather it was not a priority for Focht. Focht made some extremely poor decisions. He was fine when he was subservient, but a rotten head of state (Yes, the Primus was supposed to be, but anyone who breathed knew better).

A case of not recognizing that a group considers you to be an enemy that must be defeated.  It happens a lot, but that could get in to real-world territory very very quickly.

[VanVelding]

The clans had also proven twice that they had no abilty to fight real war.

Took Terra just fine, didn't they?

[Minemech]

A case of not recognizing that a group considers you to be an enemy that must be defeated.  It happens a lot, but that could get in to real-world territory very very quickly.

It is worse than that. Much worse. Moving into the greater problem would derail this thread.

[MoneyLovinOgre4Hire]

Took Terra just fine, didn't they?

Let's not get into that again.

[General308]

Took Terra just fine, didn't they?

Yes the clans did 100 years later after learning that the way they fought war didn't work.  Because they had lost real wars.  Infact it was because of the real wars they lost that Alaric  changed how the clans fought for taking Terra.   

Also What one clan learned 70 years after the Jihad isn't really relivant to the clans thought proccess at the time.

[Fire Scorpion IIC]

Yes the clans did 100 years later after learning that the way they fought war didn't work.  Because they had lost real wars.  Infact it was because of the real wars they lost that Alaric  changed how the clans fought for taking Terra.   

Also What one clan learned 70 years after the Jihad isn't really relivant to the clans thought proccess at the time.

Which real war did they lose?

Tukkyid was a trial, Great Refusal was a trial, both extremely heavily regulated

They won wars against Rasalhague, Wobbies, Hansa, Kuritans, Kuritans again, some more I'm probably missing, etc...

Fact remains that even under ideal conditions Jihad against Homeworlds crashes and then blows back hard

Successor States would be exterminating remaining Wobbies left and right just to show the (very angry and united) Clans that they had nothing to do with it

Probably ComStar too just to be safe

As for theory that Jihad would have worked if Successor States were onboard that would be like me saying that I could win Superbowl if entire lineup of Kansas City Chiefs agreed to join my brand new team with me as a team captain

Not impossible but veeery improbable