The FedSuns' national predicament is eerily similar to the strategic situation during the First Succession War, and we all know how that one turned out for House Davion. O0
Give the Dragon enough time. He's just as apt to cut his own throat as reach the steps of New Avalon.
The Cappies on the other hand...well, New Syrtis is already pretty cold. Perhaps new management will help warm things up a little...
Perhaps the Davion Civil War is a better point of reference?
Julian = Alexander Davion
Cappies in Capellan March = the Varnays
Dracs in Draconis March = Laura Davion
Erik Sandoval-Groell = Dmitry Rostov
So look for Julian and Erik to team up just long enough to deal with the common enemies of the realm, then they'll go at each other.
cheers,
Gabe